COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Rsig also had this to say about the test:

Also the test for Corona is horrible. They essentially stick a swab into the bottom of your eye through your nose. It feels like it’s touching the bottom of your eye and the people don’t know what they’re doing so they just keep trying to shove it in farther. I think that’s why so many people are getting false negatives because of how ridiculous the test is.

I seriously have my doubts Trump would go through something like this and not feel the need to blabber about it incessantly.

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Everyone did.

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https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1247967213887291401

White men continuing to kick ass.

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More from Rsig:

I’m mid 30’s, but I had cancer in my late 20’s so my immunity system is pretty F’d from the chemo and the damage the cancer did to me. Health wise I’m fine though. Yoga/cardio everyday, weights 3x/week. Eat “clean”, no sugar and rarely fried foods.

I wasn’t considered in serious enough condition at first to be on a ventilator (even when I told them about the cancer) or to even get a hospital bed by the people who saw me, but then when it got really bad I had no power to go outside and get to the hospital. I’m single w/no family and didn’t want to bother any friends to be like hey can you drive me to the hospital I’m dying and will probably infect you. I was thinking about taking an uber because the uber drivers here are horrible and never know where they’re going or try to scam you somehow, but I didn’t think that would be fair to the person who got stuck with me.

One funny thing was around the peak of the pain / struggling to breath I was lying in bed thinking well I had a good life, no regrats. Then my phone starts vibrating a bunch and I’m like guess I’ll check that maybe some interaction will get my mind off dying. Grab my phone and it’s a text message from MountainView hospital - your insurance didn’t cover $72, click here to pay your bill by April 20th. Then every couple minutes a new text came in, your insurance didn’t cover X, click here to pay your bill.

I feel like the absurdity of the situation brought some levity and gave me the power to live.

I’m fortunate enough to be financial fine and this won’t ruin my life. Couldn’t imagine if I was paycheck to paycheck since I’ve been basically useless for 3 weeks and probably will take a couple weeks to fully recover.

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A lot has been made of the testing per capita, but CFR among states seems to be better correlated to the rate of positive tests. For instance,

High CFR/Low Testing Rate

  • Georgia 39,090 Tests / 10,204 Positive (26.1%) / 370 Deaths / 3.6% CFR
  • Louisiana 81,406 Tests / 17,030 Positive (20.9%) / 652 Deaths / 3.8% CFR
  • Michigan 51,708 Tests / 20,346 Positive (39.3%) / 959 Deaths / 4.7% CFR
  • New Jersey 100,416 Tests / 47,437 Positive (47.2%) / 1,504 Deaths / 3.2% CFR
  • New York 365,153 Tests / 149,316 Positive (40.9%) / 6,269 Deaths / 4.1% CFR

Low CFR/High Testing Rate

  • Florida 143,580 Tests / 15,698 Positive (10.9%) / 323 Deaths / 2.1% CFR
  • Texas 96,258 Tests / 9,353 Positive (9.7%) / 193 Deaths / 1.9% CFR
  • California 154,733 Tests / 16,957 Positive (11.0%) / 507 Deaths / 2.7% CFR
  • Pennsylvania 98,538 Tests / 16,239 Positive (16.5%) / 319 Deaths / 1.9% CFR

(California’s higher CFR makes sense because they had a large number of cases several days sooner than PA, TX, or FL.)

Washington clearly bucks this trend, although it’s kind of an outlier in general since it was the first place with a major outbreak.

Not sure exactly what this means, but it certainly seems to indicate that we should be looking at positive% very closely as an indicator of the extent of the outbreak.

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Rsig could have gotten lost in the one of the tunnels underneath his houses and never been found. Good to see him pull through

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Quick, to the Costco! We need 100 pints of ice cream ASAP!

Wait - was he the guy who wanted to buy that whole cul-de-sac in Pahrump during the financial crisis - and build tunnels from house to house?

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That would be one of his claims to fame

Hah! I found that thing on google maps just outside of Pahrump. Not sure if that ever came out.

Oh shit, I remember that. Legendary.

So while my brother is recovering from the virus, turns out my sister is probably sick. She’s a nurse in NJ at a cardiologist office. Doesn’t even deal with patients. They take their temperature and if they have a fever, they go to the hospital. Half of my sister’s office has tested positive in the past 2 weeks. She’s been home since Sunday. Got tested Monday. Should find out by Friday. (I suspect tomorrow because she didn’t tell anyone til tonight.)

This fucking virus man. I will never forgive Trump supporters for this.

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I don’t think the ban was unwarranted tbh, if that’s what your employing.

I’d like to see this with share of people leaving their homes and going out, period. A lot of the people not going out “as usual” are still stuck going out daily for work, etc…

One thing about Florida is a lot of the people there who likely caught it, such as the spring breakers, would have left and tested positive elsewhere and “imported” their case to their own state. That may be part of the reason we haven’t seen the huge spike there that we were expecting.

Just got a friend to give me $500 @ 1.60 (-167) with me betting that the WHO will not announce a COVID vaccine prior to 1 September this year.

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Really sorry to hear your family is getting hit so hard by this, I hope they all pull through and get mild versions of it, or in your sisters case a negative test. Hang in there.

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Freeeeest money ever. Wtf that is not right.

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I was going to just say congrats on the free money, but is it for the WHO announcing it as publicly available or as passing testing? Either way you’re either printing free money or getting waaaaay the best of it.

Also: I hope you lose.

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It’s available at $1.50 here:

https://www.parimatch.com/en/sport/raznoe/mir-karantin-2020

You can also get $2.20 that there won’t be a vaccine before the end of the year