Probably many factors in CA’s favour and few against. I’ve heard that some experts think vitamin D may help the immune system.
That might explain a lower rate of serious consequences, but a lower rate of infections?
Population density probably is a big factor, but not all of the harder-hit states are high on the density list.
The models do not account for changes in policy or in human behavior, let alone the crappy data being input. Now watch politicians use more optimistic projections to relax restrictions.
Even in places that have less cases per day but still thousands it is protecting steep drops in deaths/day. Makes no sense.
Counted deaths are slowing down as are hospitalizations. Good news. But we all know that counts are under by at least 40% and likely much more than that.
Florida has to explode. Should have started by now. I call shenanigans with the numbers. If there is a big seasonal effect then just in time for college football.
3 Likes
I was just using actual numbers of deaths to show how inaccurate the ‘projections’ are. No competition.
The US are supposed to be behind the UK in wave terms, are reporting record daily deaths yet the UK is supposidly gonna have a higher number of total deaths than a nation with 6 times it’s population.
I trust the China stats more than IMHE projections
/myjokebutbetter
How is TP in such low supply for weeks? The hoarders hoarded and shouldn’t need more and there have been restrictions for at least a week at most places. If there’s no interruption in supply and distribution the stores should be restocked and demand should be once again based on how much people poop.
I get how it’s possible that people are still hoarding, but is that what’s happening?
Does it take production this long to catch up?
Or is production and distribution limited?
2 Likes
Just look at Italy, Spain, and France here to see how messed up the IHME projections are. Italy had 600 deaths yesterday and is at 17k total but will only end up with 20,300 total? That doesn’t even make any sense.
France had 1400 yesterday and is over 10k total but will end up with 15k total deaths
These projections are absolute crap and don’t line up with any reported stats(that are all being undereported as is)
6 Likes
Last weekend my grocery store had it back in stock. Limit one per customer but full shelves again.
I guess that means April 2 is when he decided we were in a worst case scenario
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1240391871026864130
Does it all come from Canada?
I think a lot does as we produce the vast majority of your pulp. Also why trumps attempt to stop 3m from sending masks here was so dumb. Hard to make them without pulp.
1 Like
Yeah it seems like there are problems with their model. Just hard to understand what assumptions are driving their results and causing them to swing so much.
Any other models out there?
Agreed IHME is trash. Their upper range estimate for April 13 deaths in Italy is 289. Median is 224.
Yesterday, April 7, Italy reported 636 deaths.
Their model seems systemically optimistic.
1 Like
Something weird is going on with the daily death data reported by NYC on this site: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
They have only been publishing this data in this form for a few days. Each evening, they update the results to reflect current info as of 5pm. But the update doesn’t just add a number for the most recent days, it actually makes significant changes to earlier days going back over almost the entire history. These changes could reflect resolution of pending test results, and maybe also could reflect adding in some non-hospital deaths based on review of death certificates and coroner’s reports. The city isn’t being as transparent about the data process as I would like.
| Date | Deaths reported as of 4/5 | Deaths reported as of 4/7 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/7/2020 | 22 | 22 | |
| 4/6/2020 | 199 | 199 | |
| 4/5/2020 | 34 | 290 | 256 |
| 4/4/2020 | 137 | 272 | 135 |
| 4/3/2020 | 209 | 285 | 76 |
| 4/2/2020 | 213 | 325 | 112 |
| 4/1/2020 | 217 | 311 | 94 |
| 3/31/2020 | 258 | 309 | 51 |
| 3/30/2020 | 218 | 254 | 36 |
| 3/29/2020 | 214 | 241 | 27 |
| 3/28/2020 | 191 | 220 | 29 |
| 3/27/2020 | 167 | 175 | 8 |
| 3/26/2020 | 155 | 164 | 9 |
| 3/25/2020 | 106 | 109 | 3 |
| 3/24/2020 | 84 | 88 | 4 |
| 3/23/2020 | 77 | 79 | 2 |
| 3/22/2020 | 44 | 45 | 1 |
| 3/21/2020 | 34 | 36 | 2 |
| 3/20/2020 | 43 | 44 | 1 |
| 3/19/2020 | 25 | 25 | 0 |
| 3/18/2020 | 21 | 21 | 0 |
| 3/17/2020 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| 3/16/2020 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| 3/15/2020 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 3/14/2020 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
1 Like
https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0
tl;dr Paper companies were already making as much consumer TP as they could sell and the shortages are because nobody wants to use the rough single ply commercial stuff.
1 Like
https://twitter.com/nick_ramsey/status/1247702235884257285?s=19
Cliffs: There is some hording, but also use of the product has shifted from a mix of home and commercial (office buildings/restaurants/etc) to more home based. The distribution chains and even the product itself differ for the home consumer vs commercial market and it is not cheap or easy to switch the supply. So, we have a situation where grocery stores can’t keep Charmin on the shelves, but also companies that make generic 1 ply for office buildings have a glut of product.
(Side note: I think a similar thing is happening with milk where some companies might have been set up exclusively to supply a particular market like schools or large commercial operations and not designed to package the product in ways suitable for sale to the end consumer)
[My pony is 1 ply]
4 Likes
Looks like we’ll be open for business by Easter after all!
Canada does not produce the vast majority of US pulp
De Blasio having press conference right now. Said that city health department should add at home deaths to the COVID count. But also said (in response to a question about data by race) that everyone is already working as hard as they can and they haven’t yet been able to compile all of the data they would like.