Now everyone is home more so the average household just needs more tp than usual, plus everyone wants to have a few extra packages stored in case they can’t find any when they run out.
Commercial TP is different and perhaps shifting production from commercial (which is likely piling up in warehouses) to household TP may not be trivial.
Cliffs: Even without any hoarding at all, production needs to increase due to higher usage.
Edit: pony usage has also risen dramatically so mine was out of stock for a bit
Are these models accounting for the low levels of testing in different states? Would more confirmed cases mean we’d predict more deaths?
These models are based on observed death rates, and so are not influenced by differences in testing. This means that changes in death rates would alter the model, but changes in the number of observed cases, or in how states are testing, would not. We believe that in settings where testing is in relatively short supply, the sick and the very sick are getting tested; this is why we utilize deaths, as those patients are more likely to have been tested.
That explains a lot.
No perverse incentives here either. Governors and president want to reopen America. Tout this model as saying we’ve passed the peak. Model only takes into account recorded deaths, and governors have tremendous authority to take steps to inflate or deflate those statistics as they see fit. See: NY not doing post mortem testing, even for patients where they’re certain they died of COVID, and then not reporting those deaths in their statistics.
But the model says they’re through the worst of it now! Go Cuomo!
It certainly is damning of the system that we are grossly underprepared for a pandemic. It’s just weird that you are lining up against people who are trying to fill the gaps and save lives.
All the likes much appreciated on my rant. Thank you.
Grief is an enemy and a friend. Enemy for feeling the loss over and over, friend for bringing back remembrances of the person. Two sides of the same coin. inseparable.
The gaps wouldn’t exist if those people had been properly taxed and their money’s influence in politics properly reduced before a pandemic takes place.
Yup this model is total trash and this was always the biggest reason why. Been a bit jarring to see people posting it here as gospel the last few days.
Likely not. Maybe the techbro working on a faster DNA test for the virus will help save us instead? Or maybe jack will save us with his billions? Or maybe Gates pre-building vaccine production capacity will?
Or maybe millions of people will die? The delusion is that all government failures are the fault of the hated enemy class (“it’s systemic my dude”) and that all efforts to route around the manifestly broken system are proof that the system doesn’t have enough power.
Yea if Italy has 500 deaths today and 400 tomorrow then 20k will make sense. I dunno, I guess we will take a look at those projections in like a week and see where we are at.
