IHME projections updated with deaths through yesterday, and some of them look a little broken. Like what is going on here?
Thatâs a real tragedy. The UK and US had a 10-14 day headstart compared to Italy - not to mention China or SK - and they completely squandered it. Tens of thousands of lives could have been saved.
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IHME projections updated with deaths through yesterday, and some of them look a little broken.
Gotta say that thereâs a lot of skepticism regarding the students being back in school by mid-May from my colleagues.
I mean there are a lot of students in my school and itâs not a big building. They all eat lunch together sitting next to each other on benches. Theyâre not going to be eating lunch underneath a mask. Theyâre going to be exposing themselves to possible viral transmission quite extensively to basically everybody as a good chunk of carriers are asymptomatic.
A petition has been signed by 30,800 people so far to say that schools should be kept closed for the remainder of the school year.
The teachers want to be back in the school. They want this to be over with but schools are basically giant petri dishes and aside from mask wearing, none of the behavioral measures mandated are practical in densely populated buildings. Canât have 20+ students in a class and maintain proper social distancing. People will eventually crack and touch their face. Girlfriends and boyfriends arenât gonna stop holding hands or kissing in the hallway.
I mean once one person gets it, the rest of the school gets it. Hell, just found out today that one of my private students may very well have it. Iâve been teaching him online since the lockdown so Iâm not a risk but it sucks to see this.
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Mostly I think that is because yesterdays âdataâ was outside the confidence intervals on the high side for most states.
Yes, thatâs what seems to be happening. But it seems like the appropriate statistical response would be to adjust the point estimates upward. Instead total projected U.S. deaths are down to around 60k compared to around 80k from the previous run.
Right, so UK deaths estimated higher than the US. UK got some catching up to do (6k vs 14k)
If that prediction is anywhere near accurate Johnson (if he recovers) will blame the experts (ofc), his supporters will point to him having put his own life on the line and he will probably come out of it smelling of roses and not of shit as he deserves.
One consequence of our media sources collectively deciding that they canât investigate anything, but rather only act as a mouthpiece for the two opposing sides to an issue, is that nobody will ever push back on these IHME projections. Weâll be here in a week or two, after IHME has to adjust their peaks to be later and death projections higher, and everyone will act completely dumbfounded. Who could have seen it coming?
Like, it doesnât seem even remotely believable that New York is going to peak in deaths this week. There are likely more people dying at home from COVID in NYC right now than in hospitals, per the FDNY stats, but they think theyâve got it contained?
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Yesterday I had a conversation with a D.C. lobbyist (works for one of our clients, so we talk regularly) and I asked her where she goes to get more reliable information about the COVID response. Not surprisingly, she said she doesnât pay attention to the briefings, but does get briefing sheets from FEMA that contain useful information that is more reliable. Hereâs a link to yesterdayâs in case anyone wanted it:
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Seems like a pretty poor model to me. It is getting quoted here as gospel but seems to have some large flaws. It seems to both be undershooting the actual reported numbers and not taking into account the fact the testing data/actual reported numbers here are bigly incomplete. It also has deaths dropping to zero by April 30th in many places. That isnât going to come close to happening. Projecting the UK to end up with more deaths than the US is another terrible projection that has no chance of occurring.
I would snap take the over 60k and I think we probably hit that by the first week in May or so.
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Based on info in that doc, Trump didnât use the DPa until April 2
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I should note, as did the lobbyist, with all these publications, you have to look past a certain amount of Presidential dick-sucking.
Tying in with that last post, something that has been really wearing on me, mentally, over the last few weeks is this:
If you got together a group of 25-30 of the top world leaders and public health officials vs the top 5-10 informed posters in this thread, I think that this thread is more knowledgeable about COVID and more capable of thinking through the consequences of various plans. Iâm not sure itâs particularly close. Itâs just insane that I can glean more information about this shit from fucking around on my iPhone at work than a bunch of mayors, governors, presidents and prime ministers glean from a team of professional experts.
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I guess a variety of factors can explain why California has a similar number of cases as so many states with much smaller populations, but I have to imagine our relatively early social-isolation measures had a lot to do with.
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I think itâs more that politicians are not the best humanity has to offer. Most of the time, theyâre failures with connections. They probably donât have the intellect to grasp everything being told to them and likely only care about political implications for them whereas weâre more interested in the actual information for our own wellbeing.
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More health conscious too, with possibly less red meat eaten on average?
Generally wealthier with easier access to better health care relative to most of America.