Wuhan reopens its outbound transport
Traffic is being allowed back into Wuhan
Train, road and rail connections have just been re-established in the Chinese city of Wuhan – where the global coronavirus emergency started – for the first time since the 23 January.
Wuhan police have warned that motorists should expect heavy traffic on roads out of the city, while even with a limited air service, 200 flights are departing on the first day carrying out 10,000 passengers.
Chinese state media has also shown aerial footage with nearly 100 high-speed trains ready to depart, and highway roadblocks have been removed.
For more than 10 weeks, millions of people have not been able to leave the city - and, initially, only those with health clearance are permitted to go.
The re-opening of Wuhan has come just hours after China reported its first day with no new coronavirus fatalities.
Though many analysts have questioned whether this country has under-reported its rate of deaths and infections, the overall trend does appear to match real life experience.
Abundance of selection is definitely the one area they’re lacking, but what they do have is usually higher quality and more affordable than you find at the other big grocery chains.
So trying to make sense of the new models here
COVID-19
and reported numbers here United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
Louisiana
Projected Deaths 4/7 - 40
Reported Deaths 4/7 - 70
Georgia
Projected Deaths 4/7 - 52
Reported Deaths 4/7 - 100
Did they update the models to be more optimistic too soon? Those are the first 2 states I looked at but going through more now.
Pennsylvania
Projected Deaths 4/7 - 25
Reported Deaths 4/7 - 61
It seems like a statistical wizard should be able to take the comorbidity prevalence and use it to at least partially adjust for undertesting? In other words, if 90% of the tested-positive population has comorbidities, but only 50% of the total population does, that would suggest that sicker people are getting tested at a much higher rate. (Assuming coronavirus infection [not severity] is independent of other conditions.) On the other hand, if the percentages align, that would suggest less of a severity bias.
Ya I mean if you are trying to draw any conclusions based on just the last few days of data that seems pretty risky. In between undertesting and whatever goes on during the weekends where the numbers seem to slow down I think trying to draw many conclusions is nearly impossible. It’s been pretty obvious these model updates the last couple days have likely been based on data that doesn’t reflect reality.
We are going to do nearly 2k deaths today with no real sign of that letting up for a while. I think it’s very very unlikely we are at any type of peak with the lax measures taken here. Hope I’m wrong.
FWIW numbers from Spain and Italy (two countries I followed closely) for Sundays are always too low when first reported.
Yea I feel like there was a general feeling of optimism from everyone coming out of the weekend and that is about to go the other way real fast. Hope I am wrong but 3k deaths a day peak(US) in 9 days seems way too low and way too early when you start looking at individual states.
What’s your situation now - working from home? Presumably since you live with someone immunocompromised you’d get to keep doing that.
Again I’m just guessing but I’ve also read that idea somewhere too I believe.
If you’re going to say we can’t draw any conclusions from the data, you can’t come back and make claims like this.
It’s a similar tale in the UK. Of the 786 deaths reported today in the UK only 81 died in England yesterday. The rest were filling in for the weekend and the previous week, and 35 from even before that.
Seems like there’s always a lag between death and reporting and that gets accentuated at weekends.
Who are you people?
Yes I included that in my vaguely blanket “social distancing working better”. We could easily have a built-in advantage.
It’s not clear they’ve actually started doing that yet. Unless you read something I didn’t.
I don’t think I’ve ever even heard of Steak Um’s before.
I was trying to make the point that even if you can draw conclusions from the data they aren’t really as good as a lot of sources are making them out to be.
My personal take is that the data is nearly worthless but if it isn’t then it is overshooting the models from yesterday.
Isn’t that a 1000% increase?
Man, Republicans and libertarians run good:
I appreciate all the best wishes I have received. I have been retested and I am negative. I have started volunteering at a local hospital to assist those in my community who are in need of medical help, including Coronavirus patients. Together we will overcome this! pic.twitter.com/9SeypT7rL6
— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) April 7, 2020
The OOT thread? Some dude just complained in the thread and no one has any idea why. You can read the thread - I’m not doing anything crazy and others are asking why the poster is so mad.