I don’t get the Doug Polk hate. I’m sure he’s not perfect and has some silly poker-oriented viewpoints but he also seems like a good dude.
Also I remember him as one of the mass multitablers on Stars at 1/2 who was irrelevant. I know he became really good, but that’s what he was when I played.
+1
And he’s got a sick collection of tank tops to show off his mushy rounded shoulders.
I like Doug, but he is pretty insufferable when trying to imitate Nate Silver, who isn’t great to begin with.
I literally had no idea who Doug Polk, Joey Ingram or Matt Berkey were before the Postle scandal. Of the 3, Berkey seems like a really fascinating, super-intelligent guy that I really want to hear what he says every time he opens his mouth. The other two are fine - funny.
On one of the podcasts Berkey was hitting Ingram with all this really heavy deep life stuff and you could tell Ingram was just kinda trying too keep up.
I have nothing against Doug in general. He worked really hard to go from a struggling mass multitabler at 6max to the best heads up player in the world for a period of time. He’s made a lot of funny videos and a lot of mediocre ones, but he seems to be doing well at it, so good for him.
I’m reading some of the “D614G doesn’t matter” takes to see if I can convince myself I’m wrong. This is from a Twitter thread from Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist who thinks the dominance of G614 was founder effects.
https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256427864314044418
https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256428176043098112
I mean, am I going insane? How is that “roughly the same rate”? There are half as many blue samples as orange at the point the decline starts, then at the end there are the same number. Isn’t that half the rate, at best?
Edit: The other thing is that the R after you introduce containment measures doesn’t relate to the R0 in a linear way. It could be the case that G614 has a higher R0 but a similar R under containment. If both clades require close personal contact to spread, for example, then lockdowns will be ~equally as effective even if G614 is more efficient at spreading once allowed that close personal contact.
He gives off a fratboy douche bro vibe that I dislike, plus I tend to be negative towards crypto enthusiasts.
Sometimes, Berkey comes across as this guy who invents a bunch of language that sound intellectual and hides that he’s not as good as he claims.
I admit I haven’t poured through the studies - but you get the idea right? It’s did this thing take over because it’s more contagious? Or did it take over because it got lucky and hit super fertile ground and then spread out from there?
In any of the studies have they hypothesized why the dna mutation would make it more contagious? Is that something you can test in a lab? It would be nice to come at it from another angle to confirm.
I learned about Maslov’s pyramid from him - which really rings true to me. I think he’s the real deal.
I’ll admit to thinking of Maslow’s pyramid as stuff I learned in high school, so Berkey knowing it doesn’t strike me as evidence that he’s the “real deal”.
The problem with the theory that it was luck is that there were multiple places where either the D strain was introduced first, or the two were introduced together, and then the G strain became dominant. For example:
“But what if the G614 strain was the only one that made it out to places” is counterfactual; it’s just not what happened.
There are various things you can do, the easiest of which is to try to computer model it. The D614G mutation is in the gene for the spike protein, which is what SARS-CoV-2 uses to enter cells, so it makes sense that it might influence virulence. The paper suggests two ways the mutation might help the virus. The first is straightforwardly that it might make cell binding better; their modelling is inconclusive on that. The other might be via antibody-dependent enhancement, as the mutation is within a region that in the original SARS generated antibodies which caused ADE. There’s a lot more detail in the paper but it’s over my head. Basically though this region is where you’d expect a mutation which enhances virulence to occur.
He’s a player winning in the biggest games in the world and doing so enough that he’s putting ppl into the game that he’s friends with just bc.
Well we can’t all be as cool as you. They didn’t teach us that stuff in Blue Springs, MO.
From what I have heard from him, he’s been poor at bankroll management. I tend to judge harshly any pro who practices poor bankroll management. I have a hard time respecting good players who can’t manage their money.
His biggest skill seems to be selling himself. On some level, he’s a bullshit artist who can get people to invite him to big private games. Game selection is a huge part of poker at the higher stakes. But he’s also a player who seems to have fundamental weaknesses. If he were forced to play in poker rooms with open games where he can’t guarantee a soft lineup, I think he would have to change his style to avoid losing. I don’t know how much of his style in live streamed games is advertising to get him into good games and how much of it is inherent spew that would be punished in games with tougher but beatable lineups.
He could be a good player who is peddling a line to make money and knows that he is running a con job or he could be a delusional player who believes his own bullshit and thinks he is better than he actually is because he underestimates how much of his winnings are due to variance.
I used to have the same set of rules for orgys. Not going to have six people who I don’t know where have they been.
I know several vegan anti-vaxxers conspiritards and they’d definitely give the Trump supporters shit for supporting racism/bigotry.
I wonder if there’s a strong prior in the field against strain mutations making a difference. Maybe it’s rare? Because yeah, I don’t really get it, and am surprised by how many experts seem to be super skeptical.
Well I just got my answer somewhat. My cousin who’s never posted anything political except maybe some stuff about racism (she’s adopted - columbian heritage) - just posted the stupid plandemic video - and my religious nutter aunt was all over it. Sigh.
At least youtube is taking that shit down. Thank god they have some standards. It’s still on vimeo of course.
