COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

https://twitter.com/jkbjournalist/status/1258211774182174730?s=21

You go JK Brown.

Sure sign I’m posting too much and need to go to sleep

5 Likes

Good, if the military bans people who have had COVID soon there won’t be a military and we can finally welcome our Chinese overlords. Oh shit, they planned this!

Just in case I’m going to like every single Trump tweet from now on, tryin’ to stay outta Dem camps. Autocorrect capitalization left in because it’s perfect.

2 Likes

Post is about Dan’s Miami Herald article. I somehow screwed up hitting respond to that.

I read a good chunk of this and while they never outright said it the point is the stats are fake in some places. You can basically take any state that has some wildly outlandish cases/deaths ratio and presume the same shit is happening. Which includes:

Florida
Texas
Georgia

Wow what do they possible have in common? A MAGA boss? Wow I would have never guessed that!

1 Like

Moms told me to tell you she loves it.

8 Likes

This guy’s Dad says of his 93-year-old mother that if she dies of COVID-19, he’ll blame “those withholding the truth, and besides, she has a DNR.”

I don’t know how it happened, slowly over time. He was a non-voter in 2016, never Trump Republican, hated the guy at first… But his business did really well with the deregulation, it’s made him tons of money, so he started flirting with voting for him again because he’s a rich white guy. My friend was horrified. He started watching more and more Fox News, and away he went. Now he’s going full anti-vaccine, cell phone towers, it’s all a lie to control us, etc, etc. I assume he’ll be full-fledged WWG1WGA in a couple more months.

1 Like

In a blue state.

1 Like

It’s gonna be Minnesota I can feel it. I don’t know if I can stand that much cold.

Strong correlation between states that had their population not complying to shelter in place and reopening early. Shocks I would guess none of us, including Goofy.

1 Like

I hope some day relatively soon Fox News is sued out of existence. It will be pretty interesting to look back and analyze how they effectively brainwashed so many people with straight up bullshit.

I think it is as simple as fiction is more interesting than reality the dumber you get. It’s why the moron class prefers a Michael Bay movie to a Ken Burns documentary. And it is now why so many are lured by the conspiracy theories rather than the fairly straight forward reality of disease, death and economic complications.

2 Likes

Me too. It’s the realization that the conspiracy theorists are not some fringe bunch. Like their ideas are fringe, but they’re a massive coalition of people. Like my buddy’s father was a perfectly reasonable, relatively intelligent guy a couple years ago. I would have disagreed with him on taxes and healthcare and that kind of stuff, but at least to some extent a fact was a fact. Now he’s off the fucking reservation, and when that many people are that far gone, it’s bad news.

I really think, because there are so many of them, we’re riding this motherfucker out with no mitigation from here. To some extent, that’s our political system working, right? If 40% of the population feels this strongly about something, they get their way. 60% cannot impose a change on the 40% (although 40% can impose no change on the 60%).

The problem is that Fox News, social media misinformation, etc, have led to this system working in favor of the Looney Tunes right wing nutjobs and they’re just going to happily and “patriotically” take us all down with 'em.

I feel deeply that those of us still here missed our chance to get out. This thing turned the slow creep into a runaway freight train. Now we just have to do our best to avoid coronavirus, and hope against hope that we can somehow pull it out in November and slam the brakes on in January.

The National Enquirer used to be things 99% of people laughed at. It is mainstream GOP theory right now.

4 Likes

This doubling down on hydroxychloroquine lately is a fucking hell of a thing.

3 Likes

And that’s while also suppressing the data to make it look better than it is… Hard to see them avoiding hospital overruns in a couple of weeks.

lolz, your mom rules schoool.

1 Like

Can’t wait.

So Germany is opening up again and of course everyone knew better all along. All these people coming out of the woodwork who are telling us now that we overreacted, that the lockdown didnt do anything to help prevent an italy-like situation. Of course our biggest rag the “Bild” is on the frontline of it. I am really only a little away from hoping for a 2nd wave thats devastating just to prove them wrong. Merkel doing the right thing letting the federal states doing there thing and so they can take the blame if it goes catastrophically wrong. It also gets her out of the line of fire for now.

4 Likes

Not particularly impressed by the article. The tangent about “strains” is just technical semantics. Unmentioned in the article are 1) the evidence about lower average PCR cycles required to get G614 to the detection threshold, which is most of the paper’s evidence for that strain being more transmissible and 2), well, I just think this is not reckoning with the evidence:

But this pattern is hard to interpret. The D614G mutation might make the coronavirus more transmissible, and G-viruses might have become more common because they outcompeted the D-viruses. But it’s also possible that the mutation might do nothing, and G-viruses have become more common because of dumb luck.

If those viruses happened to be in the right people—those who traveled from China to Italy before the latter went into lockdown—they could easily have spread explosively across Europe, and eventually into the U.S. Indeed, that’s the pattern we see: The D614G mutation first appeared just before the coronavirus moved into Europe, and almost all the G-viruses around today are descendants of that initial continent-hopping pioneer. China’s intense social restrictions likely stamped out many other coronavirus lineages within its borders, and stopped them from spreading further. “The only lineages you’ll see are those that got out, which include the ones with this mutation,” says Bill Hanage of Harvard, who studies pathogen evolution.

The point of the paper is that the G virus came into places in which the D virus already existed, that it quickly took over, and that this happened in multiple places. We don’t need to discuss things hypothetically. Here’s the classification of samples over time in the USA (orange = D614, blue = G614):

image

I don’t see how “but what if it was only the G variant which made it out” is compatible with this. We now know that there were cases kicking around France and California in like December and mid January, yet nobody had a really bad outbreak until the G variant sprung up in Italy, after which it has been the driver of every bad outbreak, from Spain to the UK to NYC. There was South Korea, but despite spreading within a cult for a while, that outbreak was nowhere near the severity of an Italy or an NYC.

So yeah like they’re right that nothing is proven, but their alternative theories aren’t really reckoning with what’s presented in the paper.

1 Like

They’ll resolve it for you eventually by refusing a vaccine if one is developed.