COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

there’s no time to lose. we need to start a “Llama King”-type unregulated llama breeding operation immediately

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The Texas specific one (subtracting off Houston is insane. It’s literally murder to open up.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1258043246611136512?s=21

We need to find the most hospitable us climate.

suburban detroit seems fine

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That is why it is cool that the TEXAS AG is demanding the release of someone who was illegally open and then got held in contempt, even though she was violating the Governor and AG order.

Texas is an absolute clown show and the governor has already overridden the ability of local jurisdictions from imposing stricter rules and guidelines.

Relevant:

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Thanks luckbox.

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Heck the city. They’ve been reclaiming dead neighborhoods into farmland and green space waiting for redevelopment.

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Hell yeah dude, you made my day

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Moms a bernie fan is on board with the guillotines.

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Haha, awesome. That was my hope! :+1:

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Have a little trust in me that when I say it is total shit nonsense it probably is and then you don’t have to look ;). In all seriousness I only flipped through a few random 30 second clips to try and figure out wtf they were saying and it was pretty bad, so my apologies.

@ChrisV @anon38180840

Good article here from Ed Yong about mutations and different strains. He’s not saying the Los Alamos study is wrong, but there are reasons to be skeptical that the mutation makes a significant difference: Beware Overblown Claims of Coronavirus Strains - The Atlantic

I dunno. Yong’s point about bias toward easy explanations is good to keep in mind, but it sure does seem like mutations could nicely explain the data, at least in some places.

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Yeah I didn’t want to make her worry. She’s not going anywhere either way.

My ex also thinks she might have it and got tested today. She’s felling better today as well and I definitely didn’t want to tell her about the intermission. She’s not going anywhere and massively prone to anxiety.

Yeah, if anxiety is an issue best to just leave it out and provide what comfort you can if a second, worse feeling hits in the next couple days.

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I’m using a daily factor of 1.0173, less than 2% a day and that forecasts a real disaster nationally. Local state rises that stay at 5% a day for a month is going to quadruple the death rate and then take most of month before retreating. Looking at the Texas graph (minus Houston) they are probably pushing 10% a day.

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The average person cannot understand that this is how science works. Debate and disagreement are expected, even demanded.

I think the book will be open on mutations for a long time.

I do know that we are setting a person storm for a more contagious strain (not necessarily deadlier).
We’ve made it somewhat harder to transmit but without making it very difficult so that odds of a more fit mutant getting a foothold is higher. It also does NOT need a dramatic change. A 10% increase in reproductive fitness can easily take over in a short number of weeks.

Plus having a very high number of infected people means more replications which increases the chance of the mutation we don’t want occurring.

Mutation frequency x chance it succeeds is the formula and the current factors are strongly on the side of becoming more contagious.

(And little pressure to cause less disease/death due to the primary vector already being non and pre symptomatic carriers)

This stuff, and all armed idiots, etc - is depressing me way more than coronavirus,

We are living in an insane asylum.

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Yeah. Particularly in an age of short attention spans. We’re used to getting anything we want right away. Heck, I’m a big science nerd and even I keep having thoughts like “it’s been 5 months and we still don’t know ___ about the virus?!”. Good science is hard.

Welp, Laura Ingraham is calling for the FDA to remove all warnings on Hydroxychloroquine. She says people shouldn’t have to hear about the bad side effects. She might be worse than Hannity.

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