COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

https://twitter.com/PriscillaWT/status/1257765300134727681?s=20

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The UK and US have issued a joint warning cyber-spies are targeting the health sector.

Hackers linked to foreign states have been hunting for information, including Covid-19 data and vaccine research, they say.

UK sources say they have seen extensive activity but do not believe there has been any data theft so far.

Those behind the activity are not named in the alert but are thought to include China, Russia and Iran.

The three countries have all seen major outbreaks of the virus but have denied previous claims of involvement in such activity.

Good to see the world working together and openly sharing data … oh wait.

California is allowing the reopening of OC beaches with a restriction that you have to keep moving. I think. It sounds weird. Surfing, running, walking etc…no sitting around. On the one hand runners spew a lot more spit, but on the other I guess it’s just a way to keep it less crowded.

I saved my anger for when she had already gone to bed and then during the day today while she wfh to support her deadbeat husband. A little leaked out but I made the save.

Made chicken parm on the grill tonight after a beef roast last night. Thinking about adding tables to the back porch (with social distancing of course). She is eating in style.

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Has anybody asked WHY the hell the President’s “Council of Economic Advisors” is doing their own analysis and “modeling” of COVID-19 data? I mean there are other people who actually have that job. I’d like to think that even an average observer is going to realize that’s a farce.

Yeah, San Diego county got a special call out by Newsom the other day for doing it right. Even up here in Trumpmona, the grumbles are getting louder, but people are wearing masks for the most part.

24 9/11s.

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Fing flip flops flup

Some of these businesses should be the very last to reopen. I am not going to any of them so whatever but we are not getting through this mess any time soon.

I pulled the Johns Hopkins county-level data to do some analysis. There’s a million caveats about the data (both quality and interpretation) but these are the top counties for highest average case increase over the past week (with an arbitrary threshold of at least 100 cases a week ago):

Leavenworth, KS	18.74%	[184, 187, 197, 356, 372, 386, 498, 529]
Dallas, IA	18.66%	[179, 198, 258, 318, 408, 515, 537, 578]
Finney, KS	14.78%	[238, 270, 270, 404, 503, 550, 550, 586]
Nobles, MN	14.54%	[399, 477, 615, 742, 866, 899, 940, 1011]
Lancaster, NE	14.20%	[157, 158, 204, 240, 280, 298, 330, 390]
Potter, TX	13.79%	[333, 396, 430, 499, 572, 684, 766, 818]
Woodbury, IA	13.57%	[495, 695, 728, 742, 922, 1074, 1112, 1152]
Dakota, NE	12.57%	[459, 608, 608, 656, 942, 942, 980, 980]
Polk, IA	11.96%	[756, 813, 905, 985, 1176, 1350, 1476, 1661]
Accomack, VA	11.88%	[195, 223, 229, 264, 303, 353, 400, 425]
Robeson, NC	11.30%	[104, 106, 162, 162, 175, 201, 201, 204]
Douglas, NE	10.41%	[476, 484, 580, 656, 744, 825, 878, 944]
Sangamon, IL	10.06%	[113, 159, 169, 178, 195, 207, 208, 212]
Habersham, GA	9.39%	[193, 212, 231, 257, 327, 344, 343, 355]
Winnebago, IL	9.29%	[343, 365, 392, 442, 485, 521, 579, 638]
Madison, NY	9.13%	[124, 126, 126, 131, 139, 149, 151, 217]
Ramsey, MN	8.80%	[297, 317, 332, 374, 405, 453, 493, 535]
Kane, IL	8.63%	[1185, 1308, 1412, 1526, 1677, 1803, 1935, 2115]
Anoka, MN	8.61%	[168, 186, 196, 212, 231, 260, 281, 299]
Rock, WI	8.46%	[164, 178, 183, 198, 222, 243, 262, 289]

My main purpose was just to highlight the insanity of rushing to reopen most of these states with cases still going up so rapidly. It’s going to be interesting to track some of these over the next few weeks.

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Even if it’s mainly driven by testing, it still means way more Covid there than realized.

How are these per 100,000 population?

Shanghai Disney set to reopen next week

Unfortunately no population data in my db (at least not yet).

Put some hot wings in the oven just there, then rubbed me eyes… :crazy_face: i think this is a teaching moment. :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

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Found myself starting to feel the darkness creep in a bit with each new hit of “re-opening”. Starting to feel that urge to root for the virus to “teach them a lesson”. Not healthy. I hope they are right, and that I am wrong. I hope that this whole thing starts to slowly fade away into the background noise of life, day by day, week by week, month by month.

Not everyone that wants to “open up” is an idiot. There must be some smart, capable people that think that we can do this. I hope they are right.

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In case any one is missing some HnH takes, here are some from him and my uncle from facebook conversations, this is not a full conversation, just various comments from different points of the convo, not responses to anything below.

Uncle:
This is going to be an ongoing virus. You can’t stay home or lock down forever. We may get a vaccine, or may not. If we do, it may take 18 months or so. We have a flu vaccine every year, and many, many thousands still die from it. At what point do you think people can have their freedom back? It seems people that are more at risk will need to make a personal decision, but you can’t keep people at home against their will indefinitely.

Uncle:

No, I didn’t say there shouldn’t be mitigation techniques. I just believe it’s mostly going to be up to individuals as to how they want to proceed. For example, if someone wants to open their restaurant, then they should. If you feel comfortable going to a restaurant, go. If you don’t, then don’t. People can choose if they want to work there, or eat there, or not. There are numerous dumbass mayors and governors out there that allow Walmart to be open, sell food, sell clothes, etc. But, on the other hand, they’re not allowing restaurants to be open, or clothing stores to be open. That makes no sense, and its government out of control at that point.

Uncle:

So grocery stores should be able to sell clothes, cooked food(like restaurants), sporting goods, etc, but stores that sell only those individual types of goods can’t be open??? Please explain that to me

HnH:

If their workers want to stay home, it’s the same decision they have everyday, just like us. If they don’t want to go, they don’t have to. There may be other folks who will take their job. Simple as that

Hnh:

Hell maybe we should just shut down hospitals too?

Hnh:

(talking about work here and as a reason we should open)

plenty of people want to go but can’t and are starving…

Hnh:

A Lot of people to go work In unsafe environments everyday…plus coupled with a 99.999 survival rate, not much to argue on your end.

Plenty more gems thats just the first few

They didn’t eat bat soup and it didn’t come directly from a bat

It came via an intermediate host like a pangolin or something else

You left out “Deal with it, libtard!”

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Freedom never tastes as good as it does sitting at a restaurant table getting free tea refills.

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I’m not saying it did.

From the article:

The report authors focused on a mutation called D614G, which is responsible for the change in the virus’ spikes.

Just gonna run a slight victory lap here, the D614G mutation is exactly what I was talking about when speculating on strain potency a couple weeks ago:

I mean, from the paper, there’s this:

To differentiate between founder effects and a selective advantage driving the increasing frequency of the G clade in the GISAID data, we applied the suite of tools that we had been developing for the SARS-CoV-2 analysis pipeline (Fig. 2, Fig. 3, Fig. S2 and Fig. S3). A clear and consistent pattern was observed in almost every place where adequate sampling was available. In most countries and states where the COVID-19 epidemic was initiated and where sequences were sampled prior to March 1, the D614 form was the dominant local form early in the epidemic (orange in Figs. 2 and 3). Wherever G614 entered a population, a rapid rise in its frequency followed, and in many cases G614 became the dominant local form in a matter of only a few weeks (Fig. 3 and S3).

And this:

While D614G did not predict hospitalization, there was a significant shift in cycle threshold to fewer PCR cycles being required for detection among the group that carried G614 relative to D614 (Fig. 5D). This indicated that patients carrying the G614 mutation had higher viral loads (Wilcoxon p = 0.003, median 23.1, IR 19.5-26.6, versus median 24.9, IR 21.2-27.6). This comparison is limited by uncertainty regarding the time from infection at which sample was taken, and by the fact that PCR is an indirect measure of viral load; still it is notable that despite these limitations, a significant difference was observed.

This doesn’t prove that G614 is more contagious, but it is pretty good circumstantial evidence imo.

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