Germany got their R0 to 0.8 before relaxing lockdown and within ~10 days it was back to >1.3 so they tightened up again
Good news is that their testing is soooo wide scale it tooks hours to realise that R had jumped whereas US / UK may take weeks to note same
Lol this is a hilariously bad post and it should be blatantly obvious why.
Nobody who caught it the day they reopened would be dead yet. I also have no idea what their reopening looks like with tests, tracing, distancing, and masks. But citing two weeks is a fucking joke.
Spain hasnāt been open 2 weeks. Tomorrow some small businesses can reopen with a maximum 1 customer per employee, some people can workout outside, and very restricted public transportation will restart.
Yeah if the description I heard on the news yesterday is accurate āreopenedā Spain still sounds more locked down than most anywhere in USA except maybe NYC. Itās really no surprise we have the most cases and deaths
Okay forget deaths, # of new cases is also declining.
And yet the infection curves flattened ~two weeks after the restrictions in NYC, just like they had in other places with outbreaks.
Yes, Spain allowed kids out the house for the first time since Mar 17th āabout 48 hours agoā
Spain lockdown vs US ālockdownā - no comparison
(Itās Trolly trolling the 2 weeks, not me)
Some of Spain has been allowed out first time in 48 days, within last 48 hrs. Proper lockdown for 48 days.
āIām so glad to be finally able to walk outside for a bit,ā she says. "The people I work for are nice and treat me well but 48 days inside is a long time.
Too early for any increases in cases. See Germany.
Their reopening includes takeout food being allowed. Weāre reopening restaurants already. And their reopening starts from a better place than us. Their reopening may be more restrictive than our lockdown was. Like Iām guessing professional wrestling wasnāt considered essential business there.
This is kind of my point? If you think the US lockdown was a half-assed measure, idk why you also expect radical changes when itās lifted.
We know basically dick about how far this spread before anyone locked down, about how many people got it and how effective the lockdowns have been. Iād say we should be cautious about making predictions.
Because we saw the US lockdowns be somewhat effective. Theyāre likely taking their rate of transmission from < 1 to still < 1. Weāre going to take it from > 1 in most places to even more > 1, and weāre going to do it with (thanks to the bad lockdown) lots of symptomatic people walking around.
Thatās a bad combination. Very.
Here in the Czech Republic, restrictions were slowly removed when the R0 was 0.9 on April 13th. As time has gone on, more and more restrictions have been removed. Now the R0 is 0.7. Aside from one really odd spike in new cases, the numbers have been consistently trending down.
Then again, people have been extremely disciplined when it comes to wearing masks and social distancing and all that ever since these policies were announced especially when compared to America.
The descent from the peak is a slow one even if things are being done ideally. But with America. Christ, Iām really concerned about my friends and family back home.
Spain staggered there open up to 2/3 hours in the morning for ages between 0 & 60 then they went indoors to let the OAP out and about, tomorrow may be different.
I donāt think people needing to get to their jobs is going to be a big problem, unfortunately.
China lab theory āremains speculativeā - WHO expert
Dr Michael Ryan, speaking at a WHO briefing in Geneva
Dr Ryan said all the evidence suggested āthe virus is of natural originā
The US government has provided no evidence to support āspeculativeā claims that the coronavirus originated from a lab in the Chinese city of Wuhan, a senior World Health Organization (WHO) expert has said.
Dr Michael Ryan, speaking at a WHO briefing in Geneva, was questioned about the unsubstantiated theory, often touted by US President Donald Trump.
āWe have not received any data from the US government relating to the purported origin of the virus. From our perspective, this remains speculative,ā Dr Ryan, head of the WHOās Covid-19 response unit, said.
Dr Ryan said all the evidence suggested āthe virus is of natural originā. He called for a science-based, not a political, inquiry into the origins of the virus.
Had an interesting chat with a colleague who runs a climate change think tank. They are already using covid to model economic shifts that could combat climate change.
ālab accidentā and āvirus is of natural originā are in no way mutually exclusive
So Trump can still get infected even if everyone around him is getting tested all the time?
https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1257392906568110081
https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1257392907826483202
great news California is starting to open up more places and I still donāt have to go back to work!