Your ship’s pony has corona virus.
15K deaths a day means we can be looking at 500K dead by July 4th.
So in about three weeks, Trump at the podium, “I call it… micro spore rid ee yah, and what you do is you infect all of the mosquitoes with it, then you let them bite you, and it’s so beautiful, the coronavirus is gone. Microsporidia, you’ll look into it, right? I’m not a mosquito guy, but what do you have to lose?”
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Holding at about 2K/day with restrictions that limit the spread so we lift restrictions in a bunch of places and… who really knows.
Seriously?
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Yeah it’s pretty obviously going to get worse starting now with the results becoming obvious within a week or two.
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15,000 deaths a day would be bad, but if that happened Trump would say they claimed we could have 50,000 a day and look at all the lives he is saving.
Smallpox took a incredible vaccination effort. But it was possible because no apparent host put side of Homo sapiens.
This thing-virtually impossible. Would be more like 1918 and take multiple waves to saturate. Also very concerned about some of the blood clotting issues that are happening in the supposed asymptomatics.
As someone said, the natural intermediate host would harbor and it could come right back once immunity wears off or we generate a group of humans.
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Spain reopened two weeks ago and their death rate has still been declining. There’s a whole lot we don’t know about how effective America’s half-assed lockdown has been. I’d be cautious making bold predictions about what’s going to happen.
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+1 for uncertainty, a rare commodity in these parts.
Spain’s reopening is more severe than most US lockdowns were. They literally just let people go outside for anything besides grocery shopping. Beaches and restaurants are still closed. Also it takes 14 days on average for someone who has it to develop symptoms. What Spain did in the last few days literally has no bearing on the numbers we are seeing now.
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FU IHME—and your change has nothing to do with social distancing. No one outside of Wuhan showed a case decline anywhere near one that would be necessary to fit your model. You were complete morons basically eyeballing curve shapes with no mathematical basis in biology underlying your assumptions. None whatsoever you charlatans. And FU CNN for calling them an influential model.
Graphs shown here roughly a month ago predicted 100k by June 8 and I will likely revise that a little north with the decrease in social distancing by moron states that are still on the upslope, let alone too early in their declines to do so.
I’d been doing so good today. Outside by 9 with the pressure washer. Hit the front porch, both cars. Took the bimmer out for some exercise, talked to two of my older brothers, started a roast on the grill (1st time experiment). All in all have a great day. My babe is out back staining the steps after putting in several wfh hours to support my unemployed ass. My stimulus money is in the way. What a great freaking day but nooooo—-IHME and CNN you just had to ruin it for me. FU.
/rant and very awesome rant at that.
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We’re going for herd immunity intentionally, they just won’t tell us. Looks like we should be there by September to November range, based on some back of the napkin math. I sure can’t think of any reason they’d want this over before November.
Of course, the blue states have to comply… Which is why they’re going to withhold expanded UI benefits.
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But then if you think the US’s lockdown is a joke, we shouldn’t expect things to radically change when it’s lifted.
I mean, an alternative explanation for what we’re seeing in Spain is that all of these lockdowns were too little too late just like the travel restrictions were and this virus’ progression is barely being slowed down.
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I can’t speak for others but I’ve noticed a huge difference in the past few days compared to 2-3 weeks ago. Traffic is pretty much back to normal.
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Here’s the thing. When we are talking exponential growth, every little bit matters. Going from a nationwide R of 1.05 to 2 for example would make a huge difference in at least the speed of growth going forward if not the ultimate consequnce.
It’s possible Spain on full lockdown got their R to .3-.5 and with easing restrictions some (to something that is still more severe than the US lockdowns) they might still stay below 1. We don’t know that yet though because there is no data for that just like we don’t know how half of the US going buckwild will affect it. But it will almost certainly increase it. And increasing it at all when we have basically not reached R<1 hardly anywhere outside of NYC is really bad.
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The people dying today got Covid-19 on average around the first week of April at pretty much the peak of lockdown compliance. If we didn’t see any flattening or even a dip right now we would be in even worse trouble. Also the guy who made the model in that report has come out and verified that it is real. The modeler is a reputable academic from JHU. I have no idea if he is right or not so I am not trying to say that I know this model to be any better than all the others that have sucked. I do think any reasonable assumption of what is going to happen has to conclude that “re-opening” is going to increase R. An increase in R will mean more new cases. An increase in new cases eventually leads to an increase in new deaths.
Let’s just say that the states opening does nothing more than maintain status who for a long time.
Let’s assume heard immunity is a thing. We need roughly 90 days to get to 30,000,000 positives which if the AB is 10x gets us there to 300,000,000.
Of course the really low population density places will slow it down and take longer to achieve herd until everyone goes back to…
Church and football!!!
We can have this all done by football season except for small towns and who gives two fucks about them.
No college football in fall=donny losing in landslide.
-Narrator: wow Danny went from 0 to Dead Sea salty over that IHME news.
No one’s dropping dead within 2 weeks from venturing out - see 4+ weeks.