I will fess up to being way behind on the science, but it seems we have no hope of ending this thing without a vaccine, which is 1-2 years away? Is this the scientific consensus? And if so, the re-opening talk is wildly irresponsible as we should be social distancing until the vaccine arrives?
Except social distancing isnât all or nothing.
My personal take is this is about right. Although there is a much smarter option that most other civilized countries are pursuing. It seems most of Europe/SK/Japan is going for a combo of longer term lockdowns to get R as close to 0 as possible and the number of new cases as low as possible before reopening and I think most places are at least talking about developing more extensive testing/tracing in order to be able to control what will certainly be additional cases.
There is no appetite to do either of those things in USA #1. So it seems very likely we are heading for herd immunity or hitting a 1-2 outer on a vaccine/cure that happens much sooner than most people think. Herd immunity even by the most optimistic calculations is 500k+ dead.
Even if we were just willing (which we obviously arenât here) to do these few things until we found a vaccine:
-No large scale events at all
-Mandatory mask wearing
-No dine in restaurants/bars
-Some social distancing
That might get us close to a R of 1 or if we are lucky slightly below. At worst it probably buys us a lot more time than the entire country having one giant kegger during May.
There are some hopes that the Oxford tests will be successful and that an accelerated process will see the first vaccines available by autumn.
Who gets it and when may be down to how much our beloved companies decide to charge for it.
Maybe I am behind on how this is going but I think they are talking doses in the millions (as opposed to the 1000x that we actually need) by autumn if everything goes perfectly. There is no hope of the entire USA being vaccinated to any real extent before early 2021.
Iâm definitely not sending my kids back to school without a vaccine. This country surely has no appetite for an entire school year of stay at home, what the hell is going to happen?
Malaria solved today (OK, maybe)
The researchers could not find a single mosquito carrying the Microsporidia that was harbouring the malaria parasite. And lab experiments, published in Nature Communications, confirmed the microbe gave the mosquitoes protection.
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If the Trump admin is projecting 3k a day that seems terrifying.
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Itâs important to remember that there was never a plan. Trump spends all day watching TV and hoping that some magic bullet shows up to make coronavirus go away. Jared is stealing as much money as possible while the printerâs on. State governors are sporadically responding to their local situations, but donât have the ability or authority to handle a crisis like this. People on twitter and ITT have great plans, but thatâs just spitballing. The official policy of the U.S. government is: maybe this will all blow over.
The big delusion people have now is that the sacrifices people are making are in service of some strategy to fight the virus. Thereâs no strategy. Itâs not even really playing for time, in the sense that no one is using the time to implement a strategy. I voiced some of these concerns way back in early March, but I have been suppressing them. I guess the flaw in LIBERATION theology is that shutdowns arenât really driving the economic carnage. Georgia is OPEN FOR BUSINESS, but Iâm sure as shit not in the office. Messagingwise, though, it would be bad for Trump to own the letâs-go-back-to-normal lane and make governors and the Democrats own the economic-disruption lane. The thing stopping us from opening for business is not policy, itâs Trumpâs plague.
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Whatâs behind Pompeoâs China lab theory?
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeoâs remarks on Sunday about the origins of the novel coronavirus echoed those of President Donald Trump. But the US secretary of state was more emphatic, claiming there was âenormous evidenceâ of an accidental lab release of the virus from China.
Some observers note that the administration is also under fire for its response to the pandemic and may be seeking to focus blame on China to divert criticism.
There is some confusion about what the words âlab originâ means. Theories about the virus being a bioweapon, or genetically engineered, arenât taken seriously by scientists. One study analysed the virusâs molecular structure and concluded it was entirely natural in origin.
The potential accidental release of a naturally occurring bat coronavirus from a research institute in Wuhan is another matter, but there is no evidence of any kind that the Sars-CoV-2 virus (which causes Covid-19) was released accidentally from a lab.
A great number of scientists favour the theory of a natural âspilloverâ for the origins of Sars-CoV-2, without the involvement of a lab accident. Under this scenario, encroachment on animalsâ habitats, along with the wildlife trade, created the conditions for a virus prevalent in bats to âjumpâ the species barrier into humans, perhaps via another unknown animal species.
Yet lab accidents have happened in the past. An error at a laboratory in Singapore in 2003 led to a graduate student being infected with Sars, while in another case two researchers at a Beijing institute were infected when measures intended to inactivate the Sars virus failed.
Ya I mean thatâs the real question in the slow burn of thousands dying a day scenerio. Most people canât afford for their kids to be home during the school year. Most people canât afford to stay home. People are expected back at work. The federal government has already blown through trillions supporting mostly big business and basically given the people a couple month lifeline. That is not going to be remotely adequate.
I honestly think one reason the insane gaslighting by the right is happening on this issue is that there is no good solution at this point and they know it. The lockdown should have been harsher. The lockdown should have been longer. The time locked down should have been used to develop testing and train tracers. None of that stuff happened. Now no one has any appetite to lock down longer. The virus on the other hand cares about none of that. Itâs complete lunacy to release everyone to party all month in May with 30k new cases a day still happening. If we somehow avoid disaster here I think it will probably be one of the luckiest things I have ever seen.
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In the US surely they will basically implement a public policy that is more or less âopen for business, herd immunityâ with the implication that poor people eat the majority of the deaths and suffering and rich people get curated alternatives. Itâs their way of life, why would this be any different?
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Yeah this is it basically. The dying has just barely started honestly. Weâre going to be doing 3-5k a day for six months to a year before we hit herd immunity.
100% agree.
The lack of the federal government stepping up mass testing, the lack of the federal government allowing testing to occur on people without a travel history in February, the lack of clear communication on face covering guidanceâthere is a ton of blame to place on the Trump administration in the Feb/March timeframe of this time.
But the biggest flaw is intangible: never having any semblance of a plan. Every course of action has downsides far worse than Trump was willing to stomach. So we didnât pick a course of action; we just did effectively nothing. And what weâre ending up with is apparently completely devastating entropy.
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Vaccine effort needs five times more money - UN
The Secretary General of the United Nations, AntĂłnio Guterres, has urged more countries to donate funds to a global initiative to research and distribute vaccines and drugs against the coronavirus.
The pledging effort, spearheaded by world leaders, is expected to raise an initial $8.2bn (ÂŁ6.5bn) at a virtual summit on Monday.
In a video message to the conference, Mr Guterres welcomed the âgenerousâ contributions, but stressed âfive times that amountâ was needed to ensure vaccines, drugs and tools could be shared equitably worldwide.
âI call on all partners to join in this effort,â the UN chief said. The UK, Norway, Japan, Canada and Saudi Arabia are among the countries to donate so far. The US, however, is not involved.
Mr Guterres has been critical of world leaders, telling the BBC he was âshocked but not surprisedâ by the lack of global coordination to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.
People here are at least talking about malaria now, as opposed to the dgafafrica sentiments of your pal earlier in the thread.
Even if it is only because Covid has heightened their sense of vulnerability to global diseases that may affect themselves, itâs something at least and once people see how awful malaria can be close up (many who donât die from it never fully recover and have relapses throughout their lives) we might start to see companies like yours solving a problem that is believed to be quite solvable.
Then doubtless weâll all have the pleasure of listening to America telling the world how itâs saved it again.
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I mean, who really knows what will happen when the lockdown is lifted, but weâve been holding steady at just shy of 2k/day since April.
Herd immunity would have been a helluva lot easier to attain back in 1918 (or 1917). Much smaller population and no mass communication. Weâre going to be on a very slow road to herd immunity because a huge number of people are going to refuse to play along with it. Understandably, theyâll want to stay home and live, rather than mingling to buff up the economy. So the economy steadily crashes while providing Washington with an excuse not to give any more assistance since things are back open again. Best hope at this point is still an effective treatment, followed by a vaccine.
I mean, wasnât the whole We alone won WW2 shtick of the past 70 years just a dry run for Trump claiming credit for everything? It certainly seems that way in hindsight.
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