One thing that is interesting to me is that the rest of the country is growing in cases/deaths at a rate that has basically completely offset the NY declines. And that was prior to GETTING OPEN FOR BUSINESS.
At the early stages of this the GOP could explain this away as a NY problem and something that most of the rest of the country was relatively safe from for a myriad of reasons. Now that less than 20% of the daily new cases/deaths are coming from NY it is starting to be obvious that isn’t true. What seems obvious to me is that R never really got below 1 anywhere outside of basically NY. R in places like Dallas is probably much less than NYC assuming both places do nothing. What that seems to have done is lulled most of the country to sleep thinking that just because they are only growing a little they have it licked. And again that is growing a little with at least medium level restrictions in most places.
The problem with that is anytime you have a R over 1 you end up with your entire population infected. It just takes a little longer than if you have a much higher R value. So absent a cure/vaccine it matters very little really how high your R is if it is > 1. What I see happening is that most of the country is going to have a long slow burn. Never doing enough to get R below 1 and never having it bad enough to go back into lockdown to have a chance to get it below 1. If that is what happens we are still going to end up seeing a hell of a lot of death from this. Maybe not enough to make people care still though.
Here’s the article, which refers to an “internal document.” Quite disastrous if true, and at the ~worst side of the doomsayers’ projections here. 3,000 deaths/day in early June.
This would be BAD if true. Fingers crossed it’s out of context or old or something.
Raising the level of shits given about Africans to above precisely ZERO would be a start, albeit an uncomfortable one for people doing so well out of the pharmaceutical industry or people who send loads of innocent black Americans to jail.
Also lol @ malaria spreading in the USA in any significant numbers, climate change or no. Americans are indoor dwelling folk who live in spread out cities where ~all houses have air conditioning. If malaria comes back here, it’s because our society has broken down, and malaria will be the last of our worries.
It’s going to really suck for NY to stay closed for a long time only to still end up overrun with a second wave from the rest of the country exploding after OPENING FOR BUSINESS.
Right and people posting on UP are definitely the main drivers of those issues. And in case you were taking a shot at me with the pharma industry dig, go fuck yourself.
It appears to have been put out on 5/1 so these are not dated estimates. If I am reading some of the graphs right it has some wild stuff in it like predicting that there is a 25% chance we have 8k deaths/day by the end of June.
So we’re just looking at some hybrid form of herd immunity? Is that the plan? We get massive deaths while still having a hopelessly crippled economy? In light of the newest CDC models, how long will it be before Trump repeats that its “going to go away”? I’m going to guess not very long.
The deaths/day chart that shows 25% chance of 8k is also pretty transparently underestimating deaths. Every single actual datapoint is much higher (at least 2x, as high as 10x) than the model prediction.
