COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

So my co-worker’s kid that got it (tested positive) and quarantined at home with mom and dad has cleared it and returned to normal. He stayed in his room and they left food and drink in the hallway and he had a bathroom to himself. He basically slept 20 hours per day for 2 weeks.

Anyway, they were skeptical (as was I) that you could quarantine somebody with this in the house without everyone in the house catching it, but it seems they managed to pull it off. Either that, or they all (husband and wife in mid fifties, daughter in late teens) got it with only very mild symptoms. My co-worker said at times both him and his wife thought they had a tight chest or other symptoms but they struggled with figuring out if it was just in their head or perhaps seasonal allergies. None of them had access to testing. This is in Massachusetts in the very hard hit area north of Boston.

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What a fucking indictment this is. You are living with a positive case two months into this thing, near Harvard, MIT and one of the top hospital systems in the country and you can’t get a simple Covid test.

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Their kid couldn’t even get testing to be 100% sure he was clear before returning to work as a physical therapist.

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Yeah I know UP = lolAfrica but anyway

Zimbabwe pleads with foreign lenders to prevent coronavirus “catastrophe”

Zimbabwe is headed for a health and economic catastrophe from the coronavirus pandemic because its debt arrears mean it cannot access foreign lenders, the finance minister warned in a letter to the IMF.

Mthuli Ncube said in the letter dated 2 April and seen by Reuters on Monday that Zimbabwe needed to start talks and normalise ties with foreign creditors to clear its decades-old arrears and unblock urgently-needed funding.

“The Zimbabwean authorities propose a high-level dialogue on mitigating the economic and social downfall from the Covid-19 pandemic through transformative arrears clearance … short of which the country will suffer a health and economic catastrophe,” Ncube said in the letter.

It was sent to the IMF and copied to the World Bank, African Development Bank, European Investment Bank and the chair of the Paris Club of sovereign creditors.

The IMF declined to comment on the leaked letter. An official in the agency, who declined to be identified, confirmed the letter had been received.

A woman has her temperature checked at a mass screening and testing centre, in Harare, Zimbabwe.

A woman has her temperature checked at a mass screening and testing centre, in Harare, Zimbabwe. Photograph: Philimon Bulawayo/Reuters

Lenders like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank stopped lending to Zimbabwe in 1999 after the country defaulted on its debt repayments.

That has led the government to resort to domestic borrowing and money-printing to finance the budget deficit, pushing inflation to 676.39% in March year-on-year, one of the highest in the world.

Before the coronavirus outbreak, Zimbabwe was grappling with its worst economic crisis in a decade, marked by shortages of foreign exchange, medicines and electricity as frustration over president Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government grows.

Zimbabwe has reported just 34 coronavirus cases and four deaths. Yet the economic effects of its lockdown have been ruinous. More than half of Zimbabwe’s 15 million people already needed food aid after a drought in 2019, according to the government and aid agencies, which shrank the economy by 6%.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa. has extended the lockdown by another two weeks until 17 May.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa. has extended the lockdown by another two weeks until 17 May. Photograph: Aaron Ufumeli/EPA

The president last week promised a $720m stimulus package for distressed companies, but did not say where the money would come from.

“Cumulatively, Zimbabwe’s economy could contract by between 15% and 20% during 2019 and 2020. This is a massive contraction with very serious social consequences,” Ncube said in the letter.

“Zimbabwe desperately needs international support,” Ncube said, adding that the pandemic could lead to loss of lives and “raise poverty to levels not seen in recent times”.

You’ve made a similar statement a few times recently, and I’m wondering why?

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1257162582135275521?s=21

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This is terribad on several levels:

  1. CNN doesn’t link to the actual press release, and I can’t find it on the site because it isn’t there, but the most recent press relrease on the site has 92/707 cases positive. The remaining ~800 cases were pending. Apparently ~300 of those were positive?
    News Releases | Health & Senior Services

  2. The testing was specifically asymptomatic people. This isn’t a random population who shows up, and some subset tests positive, and some subset of those positive tests are asymptomatic, which is what the article implies. This feeds the “this is no big deal” narrative of the right brilliantly.

  3. There is reason to believe people are lying about being asymptomatic. It’s likely that at the plant, workers have to sign an acknowledgement each day that they don’t have any cold symptoms in order to go into work. Many probably fudge it, feeling slightly congested or whatever but go in anyways. Some might be straight up sick and still go in. There are strong incentives to keep on working. And once you’ve answered that you don’t have any symptoms there, you’ve gotta follow through the lie when the public health department comes around.

Agree with cuse 100%. Reporters need to pull their heads out of their asses and stop publishing counterproductive stuff like this.

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Still skeptical about using the worst hit town as a basis for speculation.

Austria just finished its second study testing the general population. Out of 1432 persons only one tested positive. This translates to likely 3400 active cases compared to the 1700 currently known. Because of the sample size it could be up to 11000 though.

https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1257092884597215234?s=20

sounds like they should have saved more in their emergency funds. Should have at least six months of expenses on hand, right? Sad!

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I have two friends with what sounds like pretty mild symptoms who scheduled swab tests at two different places around LA - one today one tomorrow. I was pleased to hear how easy it was to get a test.

Now go look what their average CEO pay has been, should have lived within your means, tough luck fellas. Maybe don’t vote for a god damn game show host next time around.

If any of them ever served avocado toast then it’s over.

And cry me a f’n river, rural Texas has the highest cost per patient of any place in the country for Medicare, with worse results. $15,000 PER PATIENT PER YEAR.

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the IHME has stopped updating its model apparently; last update April 29 (which shows we’ll be under 500 deaths/day in a week’s time).

Looking over the site generally, it looks like complete trash at best, propaganda at worst. The model’s title “Social distancing assumed until infections minimized and containment implemented” is an absurd pipe dream–their disease curve would be optimistic even for a Wuhan-style lockdown across the entire USA. The boldest text on their homepage says “COVID-19 projections: transitioning from social distancing to containment.”

Now just take the webpage down and disband the “institute” and I’ll be happy!

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The biggest problem wasn’t the model as modeling this thing isn’t that easy based on what we know. The biggest problem was Trump/Birx/Fauci latching on to this model and then the media following suit. It was basically the birthplace of the “TYRANNY/This is overblown” movement. All the while anyone who had ever done any modeling of even the simplest kind could see this model had significant problems that was going to cause it to drastically undershoot the death total.

The most noticeable one being future deaths aren’t as much of a function of the past death curve/slope as they are function of new cases + time. It’s impossible that we have a big nationwide reduction in death when the new cases are still basically flat day over day or very very slightly declining. The model was doing things like predicting the USA down to basically zero deaths in a week on last update when we still were averaging 30k new cases a day. That isn’t possible.

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Yeah, that’s why I bolded (emboldened?) the line that stated it hadn’t been peer reviewed.

Supposedly, a security guard prevented a woman from entering a Family Dollar in Flint MI for not wearing a mask. She became angry, left and returned with armed gunmen who shot the guy dead.

ThAt BeTtEr NoT cOuNt As A cOvId DeAtH!

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