COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Could be that opening up other places (stores, restaurants, beaches) has a signalling effect that it is basically safe to shop again.

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Gotta say I love this lawbro and his subtle message

Some contextā€¦

https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1256287520775639041?s=20

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Texas re opened and it really feels like it.

Due to the incubation period people are going to become extremely lazy and inconsiderate very quickly. This next wave is going to be so massive compared to the first wave where we have magnitudes more virus carriers to kick off the exponential growth.

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How shut down has Texas been prior to this?

No one thinks SCOTUS is going to overturn mail-in voting laws. Youā€™re attacking a position no one holds. The article in no way implies that.

As for the AZ example, it doesnā€™t disprove my point at all. Voting access has become much more partisan recently, with Rā€™s doing everything to restrict it (edit: I should note it was always very partisan to suppress minority voting, itā€™s just recently become more partisan across the board in all aspects). If AZ had recently expanded voting rights, that would be one thing.

Iā€™m by no means an expert on AZ voting law, but it does seem the Rs have enacted a number of laws there to disenfranchise voters. SCOTUS overturned one as recently as 2013, so while they might be liberal in some aspects, they still are trying to tilt the tables by pushing the bounds of what is allowed.

Trump and the R establishment has made pretty clear that their position is they will not allow expanded voting rights even in the fact of the pandemic. The Wisconsin situation shows that even at the height of the pandemic, in a purple state, Rs are not going to budge on that, even in an largely inconsequential election (the only thing it matter for was one Wisconsin Supreme Court race). Perhaps Iā€™ll be proven wrong, but I think the odds are very much against any non-D states expanding voting rights this November.

Take Pennsylvania, for example. Democratic governor but Republican state legislature.

In 2018, Dems won the State Senate vote 54% to 46%, gaining five seats. They trail 29-21. In the House they won 55% to 44% and trail 110-93.

Now to my knowledge we already have universal vote by mail so itā€™ll probably be fine hereā€¦ But I think other states are similar - gerrymandering gives the GOP the state house even with a Dem governor. This applies to WI and MI.

I suspect that weā€™ll see vote by mail for people 65+, people more than X miles from the nearest voting place (aka rural people), and people with pre-existing conditions who can get a doctorā€™s note.

Basically theyā€™ll do what they always do.

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Thereā€™s a video in one of the replies to the Tapper tweet. Itā€™s legit.

My pony didnā€™t read the last ~5 posts before posting. Heā€™s now feeling grim.

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Ya doesnā€™t seem like the optimal time to go with the open everything up strategy.

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Iā€™m officially raging, the muppets are out in force today at my placeā€¦ :angry:

Horrible to say but I hope this happens quickly enough to be a lesson for the rest of the world. (obviously first hope is that it somehow doesnā€™t happen).

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It was previously done on county by county basis. I live in D/FW and both Tarant and Dallas counties had most of the standard restrictions. Restaurants take out only, non essential businesses closed. A week ago Dallas county started requiring masks for everyone.

Outside of the big cities though, I think it has been much less locked down.

same here, sigh

50M Americans are 65+

At the 1.8% Diamond Princess death rate that is 900,000 Americans 65+ alone. And it kills younger people as well (albeit at lower rate)

Welpā€¦Just found out someone who works at the nursing home where my grandma resides tested positive for covid. :frowning: :frowning:

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US virus deaths could be much higher

More than 65,000 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported in the US, but some experts fear the real figure could be much higher.

New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that total deaths in seven hard-hit states were almost 50% higher than normal during the period 8 March to 11 April.

Researchers fear as many as 9,000 additional deaths in the country could be attributed to the virus.

The US has by far the highest number of coronavirus casesā€¦

Yes. This is exactly what the math says. Even if our exponent isnā€™t near as big (1 week doubling time vs 3.5 days in mid March), just two weeks is going to fuck over a state harrrrrrrrd.

Using national numbers

10,000 cases x 2^4 = 160,000 or +150K

500,000 cases x 2^2 = 1.6M or + 1.55M

At 3% CFR 45,000 vs 4,500 more dead.

Thatā€™s 9000 deaths in only 7 states and only up to April 11. Still thinking we likely have 100k dead already.

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It burns through there so hard. I would assume no chance to get her out of there.

I hope they initiate isolation protocols. My sister-in-laws memory care place has gone to head to toe suits to enter patient rooms.

ā€œGive me liberty or give me COVID-19ā€

Lol

Oof Iā€™m really sorry to hear that :pensive:.

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