I’ve read a bit about this. And it makes me wonder why the studies on antibodies and other publications and discussions focused on trying to estimate the percent of the population that have been exposed–and therefore hopefully have at least some resistance or immunity–almost never mention that people may have been exposed without showing a detectable antibody response. This seems really important when trying to figure out where things stand regarding benefits of partial or full herd immunity. And what the real mortality rate is.
Well first off I said 5-10%. I don’t see how you square the numbers in big cities like LA, San Fran, Houston, etc if this thing was widespread enough in early March to get past 5% exposure in those places prior to lockdown. Houston for example has confirmed cases in the 4 digits. How would that be possible if 10+% of people were already exposed? Are the numbers fake to that extreme of an extent? Is there rampant asymptomatic spread to the level that even the most wildly optimistic studies don’t show? It seems very likely MOST large cities in the US have simply not had their outbreak yet.
I’m not saying I’m right by the way. I’m just bristling at you saying I am pulling these numbers out of nowhere. I’m not making them up out of thin air, I am simply trying to take all available data (which is very incomplete) and make some rational assumptions about it.
If people have it and don’t show antibodies are they still immune? I’m honestly asking I don’t know.
I think 5% is in the upper end of the plausible range. 10% would be welcome but likely an outlier. Even if it’s 20% we get to do this a couple more times before population immunity starts to show its effect on R.
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Huh. So our hardest hit states have been going down. Meanwhile the total cases and deaths per day have been damn near constant for 3+ weeks at 25,000+ and 2,000+.
And now states that are still going UP are opening. Doesn’t take a lot of math to get to 100k in a month from 60k. Only need to average 1,333 per day.
To not expect 100k is the bold declaration. With opening up society and/or a second wave 200k is not far-fetched.
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I like the “current Republican Party” he puts in there as if his party hasn’t already been destructive greedy ■■■■■ for decades.
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Thanks Donald ;)
Wow we did better than doing nothing. Maybe if someone gave him a gold star sticker he’d feel better.
Now see, this is more like it.
Next time I will post the graphs I assume we all look at multiple times a week for support lol.
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But they used to be better at creating plausible deniability by employing dog whistles. You know, the good old days!
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Czech Republic is continuing to open up more. But it’s not looking good.
Hairdressers will open May 11th though employees will have to wear masks and chairs need to be 2 meters away from each other. They’re complaining that they won’t be able to work with a mask on. Remains to be seen if they go through with opening anyway.
Theaters will also be allowed to open. However, seating will be restricted. Every other row must be left empty and two seats must be used to separate people within the rows. No more than 100 people in the theater at any time. Of course everybody will be required to wear a mask. The problem is that 100 people per theater is not enough for these places to generate a profit. So most of them aren’t going to open even though they legally can.
Cinemas who have similar restrictions will open. However, even they acknowledge that they’re operating at a loss due to the cancelation of major movie festivals, late-night premieres, galas, and ultimately require full capacity during showings to get by. They won’t be able to sell some food and beverages such as popcorn and tickets at the box office will be limited, meaning most people will have to come with pre-ordered online tickets to get in.
But the biggest issue is that the number of positive cases is starting to go up. The number of new cases has gone up for the third day in a row and yesterday had the highest total in the last 10 days. They aren’t outpacing the number of recoveries per day, meaning that the number of active cases continues to decrease. However, that probably won’t last much longer.
TLDR: The government got overconfident and opened up too fast. Now it looks like there’ll be another surge in cases.
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I responded before I saw the rest. But yeah data.
We do NOT know crap from the antibody studies to date. The California was horrible and those people should be shunned for life for publishing it.
But for the thought experiment let’s use what is available.
NY and French studies are better. That gives a rough range of 10x positives where there has been lots of active infection testing.
So for the US as a whole we are at maybe 3%. Also remember the higher the R0 the higher the % immune needs to for herd. Last estimate I saw wash pushing 80%.
Let’s just assume 60%. 60/3 is 20 fold more
20x60,000=1,200,000 eventually.
We should not get there unless we are really stupid.
Ape Narrator:yes they were really that stupid.
But 100k is a stone cold lock. I’m way more worried about undercounted deaths vs undercounted cases.
200k is even money or even a favorite based on behavior trajectory.
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Wow I was sure that was Trolly when I first read it.
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I bet he got that idea from watching The Gorilla Channel.
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Thanks Canary.
predicting over 100k+ deaths isn’t fear, it seems like what will actually happen
I forgot about the gorilla channel. Was it really a feed staffers stitched together gorilla videos for him to watch? It is impossible to remember the difference between reality and parody with trump.
Early on, it was actually working out.
Then, some legal trouble hit the government and instead of doing the right thing they decided to score political points by saying fuck public health and release restrictions even faster than they had planned.
Goddamn idiots.
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Think there’s a typo here where you say that the US as a whole is at 30% rather than (I assume?) 3.0%.
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Gorilla channel was a pixellatedboat parody
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