No. I didn’t say that. I said 400 deaths 2 weeks from 10 days ago. Which is pretty much what NY has averaged this week including the NYC numbers. I did some very basic math to get there which was new cases*.08+14 days.
The results are certainly closer to my crude estimate than your “model”.
As far as I can tell, there isn’t a scientist on earth, with virology experience, who thinks COVID was created in a lab so of course Trump is going to say it over and over.
Perfectly evil. All the time. Without fail.
We have no clue what this figure is, or how many caught it and showed no symptoms.
It’s like some of you guys have never played poker. You don’t need all the data to start making some pretty good assumptions based on the data we do have. There have been antibody studies which show the hardest hit places around 15-20% down to less than 1% in places not hit very hard. I think we can assume the nationwide value is probably somewhere roughly in the middle, don’t you?
With each of Trolly’s posts this morning I’ve done a double take about whether it’s sarcasm or just terrible, serious posting.
Yes, the US would have to be spectacularly unlucky to hit the million death mark ie no readily available vaccine or moderating treatments, and multiple waves.
People love to predict the worst outcome even if it’s not very likely, so they can then turn around to the survivors and self-proclaim as soothsayers lol. Of course, occasionally they get “lucky”.
He has to discharge all that fear somewhere…I just wish it wasn’t here.
This thread is the fear discharge thread, unfortunately. It’s where people come to share their diarrhea in public (not aimed at Wich who I think is a good poster).
One thing I have been thinking about is that a “summer pause” is probably actually worse than not having one. If we have a steady stream of new cases/death after we open up people will continue to take it seriously. If we open up and somehow the numbers continue to fall all summer everyone will let their guards down. Not to mention all the gun toting lunatics and Trump will be beating their chest over it. And that almost guarantees a bad fall outbreak + probably more lockdowns/panic.
That of course is assuming a vaccine/reliable treatment isn’t ready to go by fall.
No joke shaming please.
I’m pretty sure we already have 100k dead in the US. Deaths are something like 2x the normal averages anywhere we’ve seen that data, and normal deaths from things like accidents are likely way down due to the lockdowns. It’s possible some normal deaths are up due to people staying away from hospitals, but I think most of that kind of stuff hits in the future. We also have states like Florida actively hiding info on cv-19 deaths.
Hey man my wife started back up as a frontline ICU nurse yesterday. Our household is obviously cowering in fear!
Yep, and Georgia too now:
Pretty rich coming from you. Pretty sure if I was you I would have left the thread due to shame by this point.
To be fair when I was in computer modeling school, they always told us the “hype” setting should be on 11.
100k total confirmed deaths is a lock imo. 100k by the end of May seems very likely even with a reasonable decline in daily deaths. I’m not even taking into account the pressure to open back up, or the obvious undercount in deaths we’ve had.
How is saying 100k-250k dead hysterical when we’re at what 65k? 2 months in and tons of places are about to open up.
I’m sorry it’s scary for you. Pretending it’s not happening won’t make it better.
My kink is joke shaming.
It’s a vicious circle jerk.
Antibody studies are varying wildly, from 2-30%. But more importantly, you’re assuming everyone exposed shows a detectable antibody response, which isn’t the case at all.
Like, lockdowns in the US were weeks too late and completely halfassed, this thing spread across the country like wildfire … do you really think only 5% of people have been exposed to it?