How many points was HRC ahead by on 1st May 2016 (semi-rhetorical because would also like to know)?
Thatās quite interesting, given how dextromethorphan works, if Iām not mistaken. Doesnāt it suppress the nerves in to reduce the tickle that triggers a cough? Hence itās actually blocking the bodyās natural expectorant.
But this is actually talking about the cellular level.
Maybe he likes being gagged.
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+9-13 depending on the poll, a 91% favorite according to this Princeton write-up from May 1, 2016.
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This seems pretty likely. Pretty much all the nutjobs I havenāt unfollowed on social media (because they rarely post politics stuff) are all now posting about how Covid is a hoax. Like everything else it will probably work. Trump and Fox can pin the economic problems on the Dems and roll in the election.
Articles like this, which essentially say this poses no risk to anyone besides the elderly, are extremely popular in āpro-lifeā right wing derposphere circles right now from what I can tell:
It has hilarious shit like this in it:
" The scientists leading the coronavirus shutdown charge predicted in March that in America, between 100,000 and 250,000 would die. They based those estimates on computer modeling.
But at the same time they were basing those estimates on computer modeling, they were acknowledging that computer modeling is inaccurate and errs on the side of hype"
Uhhhh we absolutely are heading for 100-250k dead at a bare minimum(We probably hit 100k by late May/early June) and maybe more if getting open for business goes the way we all think it will.
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Trump also took a short lead in the polls towards the end of May.
Trumpās still 11/10 at Betfair (Bidenās 11/8), which isnāt generous, but if things get a lot worse there and he drifts to around the 6/4 mark Iāll be so tempted. He does have a deep reach into the appalling minds of the shitheads there.
Similar story to Germany when they started opening up. (BBC rolling news)
10:52
Number of Spain deaths risesSpainās coronavirus death toll rose to 24,824 on Friday as 281 more people died from causes related to the disease. The previous dayās death toll was 268.
The countryās health ministry added that the number of new Covid-19 cases rose to a total of 215,216 from 213,435 the day before.
Spain, one of the worst affected countries, recently announced a four-phase plan to lift its stringent lockdown measures and return to a ānew normalityā by the end of June.
You keep making these bold declarations based on zilch, man.
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I meanā¦ weāre at 64k right now and theyāre reopening all the southern states. Also the fall is a real thing that is going to happen. 100k seems almost impossibly optimistic.
So far, Iām afraid, the people with the most credibility ITT are the doom and gloom crowd. The optimists have been wrong about literally everything so far.
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These are all fantastic figures compared to the millions posted by people here earlier. Letās celebrate.
Yeah letās not. The millions arenāt off the table yet. We donāt even know if this thing can be vaccinated against yet. We arenāt even sure if people develop strong immunity to it. Those things arenāt close to certain.
As opposed to your models that are predicting 1.4m cases and deaths in the 70,000s TOTAL? We are hitting that within 2 weeks.
A āmodelā is only as good as the assumptions you make and yours must not be very good if you are literally just fitting a line through the data without making any other adjustments or assumptions. As I told you a couple weeks ago when you said NY deaths go to zero by next week that is impossible when new cases are flat for the most part day over day. Death is a function of new cases + time.
Also do you think getting OPEN FOR BUSINESS suddenly makes things better or reduces the numbers? I would gladly take the o100k for as much as you want. It has literally no chance to stay under that.
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FYP for deaths at least.
I, for one, never predicted millions dying. Also like BS said it isnāt impossible. At our current death rate we would hit 1m dead next summer. Now do I think that is going to happen? Probably not.
1 in 300 Americans are not likely to die directly from this. The deaths countries are seeing now contain a very highly skewed number of old people. In fact there are suspicions that some governments might not have been trying as hard as they could to protect them, for obvious reasons. The data so far tell us that once the virus has burned its way through the old wood it wonāt find younger saplings falling away in anything like such numbers.
Civil war, on the other handā¦
Itās very telling you make this ājokeā so often.
I think most of the scenarios where 1M+ die involve multi year time frames. On the other hand if you include the extra deaths from the economic collapse itās very likely a lock to be 1M+ over the 12 months from 3/1/2020-3/1/2021.
There are over 50m 65+ people in the US. That is a lot of untouched fertile ground considering probably 90-95% of them havenāt had it yet. Now I agree with your underlying point. The reasons I think we donāt hit 1m are that+some treatments getting better+vaccine hopes.
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Iāve always been willing to acknowledge upfront that my projections could be way off.
But like, youāre absolutely certain things will be twice as bad as the actual real-life experts predict. Didnāt you say weād 100% be seeing 500 deaths a day in NYC until mid-May?
Like, show your work, tell us where your predictions are coming from. Dan has puts far more thought into this than either of us, and heās always cautious about making bold declarations.
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