I think it’s still too soon to start opening up. R0 in Czechia is the same as in the UK, 0.7, where it was predicted last week that opening up schools, for example, would send it back up to 0.9.
Yeah but we never got as bad as the UK.
Plus, we’ve been in the process of removing restrictions for nearly 3 weeks. IMO they’re been removed too fast because Babis fucked things up but so far so good.
Doctor’s office called me this AM to reschedule surgery (hernia). New York re-opening happening now.
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Indianapolis extended stay at home for another 2 weeks which is reassuring. Not sure what the state of Indiana will actually do.
you’re so ideologically driven that you can’t help yourself
Which ideology exactly am I driven by?
Daily confirmed COVID hospital and nursing home deaths since peak compiled from Cuomo breifings
April 8: 799
April 9: 777
April 10: 783
April 11: 758
April 12: 671
April 13: 778
April 14: 758
April 15: 606
April 16: 630
April 17: 540
April 18: 507
April 19: 478
April 20: 481
April 21: 474
April 22: 438
April 23: 422
April 24: 437
April 25: 367
April 26: 337
April 27: 335
April 28: 330
April 29: 306
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Two studies that fail to find a statistically significant impact on mortality at a given level does not mean that a higher-power study would not find such an impact and especially does not mean that there is not a significant (in the non-statistical sense) impact on mortality. Based on the evidence, there very likely is, at least for some patients. Which is good news, and leads to the question of why we can’t produce millions of doses in the short term. That’s what people should be demanding an answer to.
Nasa has spent 10x as much money as they’ve given SpaceX on their own rocket, which doesn’t work and (if it did work) would be less capable than what SpaceX has in development (with solely private funding).
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Musk talk should go in the guillotine thread imo
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Folks <=.05 is an agreed upon arbitrary standard for studies.
As a scientist, if you told me A treatment gave 0.049 and B treatment gave 0.051 so therefor A IS effective and B is not I’d laugh in your face after visiting the Covid Ward.
But that’s the world we live in. Lines do have to be drawn but common sense comes into play. 0.06 means keep looking. It doesn’t mean give up.
At the plant I did a principle component analysis w an engineer friend (all variables against all other variables, each pair regressed). We set the R^2 threshold at 0.5. Pretty effin low but there were so many confounding factors.
He did the big data set. I went through and got rid of the obvious covariables and aliases then started filtering down based on some intuition/experience. (Basically hypothesized what could be cause effect, eliminated points that had other likely influences).
In the end our problem was pretty subtle and the initial analysis only gave an R^2 of 0.7. Once we got rid of the noise we got above 0.85.
Once we tested and proved the hypothesis in the lab, we changed something in the plant and the problem was solved. It took a few weeks but each step was necessary. It was very not obvious until we got all the pieces lined up.
( we were running anearobic. Turns out when small amounts of air were let in our bacteria would make 100 ppm of a compound that really impacted the product quality). We had vent valves that opened to relieve pressure. Turned out they were set too low and allowing a little big of air into the tanks. We proved it by adding small amounts of air into lab tanks and seeing the byproduct. Then we adjusted the valve settings in the plant). There were roughly 300 IO points to sort through along with dozens of analytical data tags. Thankfully the valves had open/closed readouts and gave us a signal.
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I don’t think that’s true, we still don’t have the battery capacity to make that happen.
Wasn’t Musk supposed to solve this problem too? Wherever happened to his giant batteries for places like Puerto Rico?
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Made a thread @mods please move
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I’m not here to defend Musk, but I believe they have made strides in improving battery performance with Tesla and maybe sun city. Like, I don’t understand why everyone tries to flatten shit like this into some kind of zero context all-or-nothing proposition.
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Right, making a gigantic load of money by selling something for less than it costs to make is basically american capitalism at its finest. Every coastal city in the world is going to get destroyed over the next hundred years because we refuse to pay the cost of releasing carbon into the atmosphere.
Now who could have predicted this?
Just seems like they could have accomplished all that without Musk’s rampant fraud and clown acts.
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Sure, I agree. It’s dumb to say, though, that Musk hasn’t done anything to advance green technologies . Everyone wants to turn people and their actions into characatures of reality. One of my pet peeves especially coming from otherwise intelligent, thoughtful people who are regulars here.
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