COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

  1. It might never happen.
  2. If it does happen, risks are high that international governments will just ignore your patent. Even in the US, if you’re like “yeah my pandemic ending drug is $10,000 a dose” they are just going to be like “loool” and pass something like the War Powers Act that allow them to take it.
  3. The drug might not ever work and then you just lose the development money.
  4. The drug might work, but then in the interim between now and the pandemic, someone might develop a much better antiviral or even a vaccine, then your drug is worthless.
  5. Even if everything goes right (the drug works, there’s a pandemic, you get to sell it) the drug probably isn’t needed in the long term. It’s hard to make lots of money with a short term drug. $100B is a lot of money. It is, for example, $100,000 per person diagnosed with coronavirus right now in the US, the majority of whom do not need this drug.
  6. What does $10 billion (estimated cost of developing a totally novel drug like this) earn you if you put it in an index fund for 40 years?

Compare and contrast with developing, like, a statin, where an infinite and expanding population of olds will take your drug daily for the next 30 years.

Even if companies were to invest in developing drugs like this, it would definitely not be enough investment. It can’t be, because the cost of the pandemic to society is vastly higher than what a company could possibly hope to recoup.

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The North Island and especially the coast is more like Hawaii. The South Island and the more mountainous regions take more after the Scotish side.

I’ve been hesitant to post about it, I don’t even really understand why - fear I guess. But I have had pain in my upper respiratory tract when breathing for about 48 hours now, and I’m getting concerned.

First, last Wednesday and Thursday, I was extremely tired. My legs felt weak, it was hard to move around too much, and I was just completely fatigued. Friday that improved, and I was just ta little tired, but I had a mild fever.

Saturday I was mostly fine, I had a loose stool, but nothing else and it wasn’t too bad. Sunday was fine.

Then overnight Monday into Tuesday, getting ready for bed I noticed some chest pain when breathing. It doesn’t really feel like my lungs, but I guess it could be right at the top of them. Tuesday I felt it throughout the day, and noticed it was worse when I bent over. Tuesday night I noticed laying on the couch with my head elevated a bit also put me in a position where it hurt more. I started to have a mild cough - not totally dry, but not particularly productive… But sporadic, nothing too severe. The best way to describe the pain when breathing is almost like it gets when I have some asthma after exercising or doing strenuous activity in the cold - but in that case it subsides pretty quickly. No difficulty breathing, just discomfort.

I used the heated humidifier with my CPAP Tuesday night, and when I woke up it was significantly better - I’d say about 90% gone. But, it started coming back tonight. I’d say its a little less severe than last night, but it’s hard to say.

I’ve been using some zinc lozenges (2-3 a day probably), just in case it does help with slowing down any virus in the back of the throat. Tonight my package arrived with generic pepcid, so I took that, and I’ll take it twice a day - same thing, can’t hurt, could help. I’ll use the heated humidifier again. I guess if there’s still pain tomorrow I need to call a doctor, but ultimately I know there’s nothing they’ll do. There’s no point in getting a test, given that my symptoms aren’t severe enough for treatment even if I’m positive. I guess a negative result would put my mind at ease, though, if I could somehow get a test. A positive result would mean I could skip the testing process and get straight to a hospital if it got bad, so there’s that.

You all may be wondering how I got exposed to other humans, given how strict my lockdown has been. Fun story. I’m on a late night sleep schedule lately, playing online poker into the wee hours somewhat often. So on Tuesday the 21st, the girl I’m dating wakes me up at like 12:30 with an ominous, “We have a problem.”

I ask what, and she tells me the toilet overflowed. I’m thinking, ok, that sucks but no big deal. As I shake out the cobwebs, she adds, “And water is leaking through the light downstairs.” I go running into the bathroom, half asleep, and there’s about 1/2 inch to an inch of water pooled on the entire bathroom floor, and a couple of towels thrown down. I double check that the valve is turned off and it is. I go downstairs and there’s water dripping out of the recessed light onto the kitchen table, where a bowl is catching some of it.

So I put a proper bowl on the table, clean up the pooled water, and fix the toilet. I then pry the light cover off and let it all leak out (absolutely disgusting, of course, cause it’s impossible to avoid getting hit by it). Given that water was pooled in the ceiling around a bunch of wires, and the area around the light is damaged, I have to call maintenance in which leads to two visits - one to confirm that nothing is dangerously damaged, one to fix the ceiling (basically just touch up paint).

Thus, two occasions of strangers in the apartment. We vacated the first floor, waited three hours to go back down, and sanitized the whole first floor… But obviously you can’t totally mitigate the risk.

Apparently, she clogged the toilet and it overflowed. She turned off the valve, plunged it, flushed it and it wasn’t unclogged and overflowed again. She did this one more time, same result, and this time she unknowingly got the flush button stuck, thus emptying the entire tank into the bowl (briefly) an then onto the floor since it was still overflowing. At this point she realized she was in over her head, and that she needed my help - but she didn’t want to wake me. So she threw down two towels, closed the door, and went downstairs to read. 10 minutes later, it started leaking through the light.

Brilliant.

So, that was about a week before my fatigue started… Thus the whole timeline is pretty concerning in terms of the onset of symptoms. Exposure → ~one week delayed onset → extreme fatigue → fever (but very mild) → all better for a day → respiratory symptoms.

Bright side is everything in each step has been mild compared to what you hear about severe cases. If it’s COVID-19, hopefully being 33 and just over 2 months mostly vegetarian is way more important than being very overweight and asthmatic.

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I mean, even a few years ago experts were saying stuff like, “This will likely happen within 20 years, and certainly within 50-10.”

Sure, but even like $200 a dose times 100 million people is a lot of money.

Fair.

Keep in mind that if we had a cure right now and from the start, we’d have been totally open for business the entire time and basically everyone would be getting it and taking the drug.

Fair.

I should add, regarding my health situation, if this happened under normal circumstances I’d assume the fatigue was from a grueling couple weeks of PASCOOP action in which I worked my ass off. I’d have never taken my temperature, nor would I have worried about 98.9 if I had. I wouldn’t have thought much about this chest thing, probably would have just assumed it was a random cold or something triggered some mild asthma.

But, in 2020… It’s scary to have anything involving respiratory tract discomfort.

Ok. So NZ is more like non-identical twins of Hawaii and Scotland. I remember working with some Kiwis who’d always argue jokingly with each other about which was the main island lol.

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and they do stuff like this

which is still a the top of any list I may have of “beautiful things that make me cry”

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Man that sucks. Sending you best wishes for a mild, yet long-term immunity generating case of the 'rona.

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Thanks, but I’m still hoping it’s nothing, as I’d rather not roll the dice on the unknown damage just for an unknown amount of immunity for an unknown amount of time that I can’t really use for any benefit anyway, given the unknowns. Crazy to think about.

Thankfully my head is more in the “hope it’s not coromavirus cause of all the unknowns,” space and not the worse stuff.

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Remember the patent is time limited. There’s like a 8-10 year window after clinical trials are completed where the inventor has exclusive rights to market the drug, then the generics are available and hte profit margins are gone.

Bayer and Novartis were donating millions of doses of Chloroquine and Hydroxycholorquine for free bcause getting good PR was more valuable than any profit they would make off of it.

I’ve been to NZ… I have no idea but something like 10 times probably and have never been to the North Island aside from a stint in Auckland Airport, but the South Island is like a mashup of Wales and Norway. There’s a spine of mountains runs down the west coast which culminates in the south in the Southern Alps and Fjordland. Outside of the mountains its rural, sheep and rugby. Note: I haven’t been to Wales but I feel like my characterisation is accurate.

If we are doing marriage rights moments that make you cry.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1255811905001787393

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The tight chest is obviously a worry for asthmatics. Try lying on your left hand side (or better still on your stomach if you can stand it) and see if breathing becomes easier.

The reason I write this is because I had a freak bout of mild to medium asthma that caused me to go to the doctor for an inhaler for the first time in 35 years, which lasted about 4 weeks, until a few days ago. I had to sleep with an extra pillow at night (and still do now., just in case) but eventually it went.

I had no other symptoms apart from something I normally get with viruses, a single, constant, high-pitched metallic ringing sound in my head/ears, but the coincidence of a freak bout of asthma with a highly infectious pandemic that affects the lungs is suspicious. I also had some contact at work (tea and chats) the previous week with a guy who almost certainly caught covid from a close colleague diagnosed with it, and who himself had a very bad flu for a week or so.

Hopefully you’ll respond in the same way I did. Keep us posted.

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https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/trump-administration-refuses-to-release-the-money-for-grieving-families-who-need-help-paying-for-covid-19-burials/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Why is musk so desperate to show his ass right now?

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1255678979043778560

He gets a big bonus if the stock price is above X at some point in the near future. This isn’t him being incompetent or stupid this is him being evil.

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Let me tell you about my friend Coburn Victor Daniels and his nickname…

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