COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

That’s as of April 11, not now

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Lol completely deserted downtown and the thing still does everything it possibly can to get hit by the one car on the road. Is there a lot of kangaroo roadkill out in the boonies?

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Yeah - pretty similar to deer I think, their movement is hard to predict and they’re notorious for being on the side of the road and suddenly dashing out onto it. It’s rare for a collision to kill or seriously injure occupants, but it’s a great way to total a car if you hit at speed. Thousands of insurance claims a year. Canberra is the worst metro area, grassy open city and zillions of roos, something like 1 in 6 Canberra residents have hit one at some point in their lives.

With herd animals if you see them on each side of the road - one group is gonna freak out and try to get back with the herd at the worst moment. Of course there are plenty of times you never see them coming.

Sobering to think about the chances of an engineered pandemic. The capability to edit viral genomes is becoming more and more widespread. Really COVID-19 might be a blessing, as it is a warning of the sort of devastation that could be wrought by a real pandemic. 0.5% IFR or whatever it turns out to be, concentrated heavily among the elderly, is a picnic compared to the sort of thing which could be unleashed. A 2015 Australian article in the Journal of Military Medicine even speculated that deliberate release of a biological agent might already have happened:

There has been a surge in emerging infectious diseases in recent years, including Ebola, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and avian influenza, but public health response has defaulted to an assumption of natural emergence. Ebola is a category A bioterrorism agent, and the 2014 West African outbreak displayed highly unusual features. For example, Ebola has never occurred in more than one country simultaneously previously, nor in capital cities. Further, two unrelated Ebola epidemics occurred at the same time in West Africa and The Democratic Republic of Congo in 2014, while an outbreak of Marburg virus simultaneously broke out in Uganda. Locals speculated about the origin of the 2014 Ebola epidemic being bioterrorism, yet this has been ignored in the public health response. Few nations have systematic mechanisms to assess re-emerging or emerging infections for potential bioterrorism, despite acceleration of science and accessibility of means for bioterrorism. An analysis of MERS-CoV shows that the pattern of disease fits with deliberate release, yet this possibility has not been seriously entertained. The geographic spread of the recently emerged H7N9 avian influenza is puzzling. In contrast to H5N1, H7N9 does not correspond to either wild bird flyways or poultry trading routes. The virus contains the same genetic mutations (which confers adaptation to humans), as engineered influenza viruses. Yet this H7N9 has also been assumed to be natural.

Their point isn’t necessarily that Ebola or MERS were deliberately released, but that we are so blind to the possibility that we wouldn’t know if they were. It doesn’t even get seriously considered.

At the very least I hope there’s an effort going forward on creating general solutions for coronaviruses and recombinant influenza, as those are the most likely engineered pandemics for the same reason they are the most likely natural pandemics.

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So see a yahoo article

52 who worked or voted in Wisconsin election have COVID-19

(yeah still get my email from yahoo, yeah just got a email saying I’ve been using them for email for 20 years, jebus)

well lets look at the comments

“It’s also not possible to say whether the 52 people who tested positive contracted the virus at the polls because many of them reported other ways they could have been exposed, the health department said.” so who knows where they got it?

Is there any proof that there is a coloration between working the election and getting coronavirus? The connection is being made without any evidence.

Would have been much more social distancing if Milwaukee would have kept all the polling places open. They wanted problems.

Here comes the big push for mail in voting! I’m pretty sure nothing can go wrong with this.

“It’s also not possible to say whether the 52 people who tested positive contracted the virus at the polls because many of them reported other ways they could have been exposed, the health department said.” Keep pointing fingers tho.

MA dept. of health announced 764 new cases on Sunday and we didn’t have an election. Maybe the numbers would go down if we had an election?

and yet, yet, there are many people across this nation who tested positive and were nowhere near the polls!

Dems and the media really want this mail in vote for some odd reason?

Misleading headline, 52, the video states that only 7 have been tied directly to the voting, the rest, we don’t know. But 52 is better for the headlines and narrative than 7.

Fuck I’m not clicking show me more

We are so fucked, so so fucked

Oh I don’t know about that - look at all the pigeons.

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Oh I agree…

But that comment phrased that way was clearly some RWNJ acting like mail in voting would be omg voter frauds

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Apparently, Texas believes that only people under 65 can do the mail in voter fraud. Kids these days!

[Note that folks under 65 can get a mail in ballot if they meet certain limited criteria, it’s just that folks over 65 don’t have to meet any additional thresholds]

Where is this from? These seem like severe side effects.

I don’t think Fauci was playing the long con game by contradicting Trump in non-press conference interviews and doing what he needed to do in pressers to keep his influence in the room, only to use the credibility to lie to the public about a study in order to pump up the stock market.

I mean, maybe. Maybe it’s part of the game he thinks he has to play. Seems unlikely, though.

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It may not sound like a lot to tell someone they’ve got a 92% chance of survival versus 88.4%, but we’re talking about reducing the number of deaths in hospitalized patients by 31.1% if everyone gets it.

Also, this was administered to severe cases and I think it is very likely that it’ll be more effective when given early.

I guess the problem is we’re not going to get a study with a control group, so we’re going to have to do the best we can to figure it out based on previous widespread statistics.

I’m also quite curious what, say, remdesivir + pepcid/nicotine (if either pans out) + early nasal oxygen and proning instead of a vent does to the mortality rate.

Huge news for the GOP, though. Shorter hospital stays = a higher peak in the curve before hospitals are overwhelmed.

I got the quote from this article but it’s reporting on this paper. The paper’s “safety” section reads:

A total of 32 patients (60%) reported adverse events during follow-up (Table 2). The most common adverse events were increased hepatic enzymes, diarrhea, rash, renal impairment, and hypotension. In general, adverse events were more common in patients receiving invasive ventilation. A total of 12 patients (23%) had serious adverse events. The most common serious adverse events — multiple-organ-dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury, and hypotension — were reported in patients who were receiving invasive ventilation at baseline.

Four patients (8%) discontinued remdesivir treatment prematurely: one because of worsening of preexisting renal failure, one because of multiple organ failure, and two because of elevated aminotransferases, including one patient with a maculopapular rash.

In the WHO draft paper put on the internet and later removed because it was premature, likewise, 11.6% of patients receiving remdesivir had the treatment halted, compared to 5.1% of those receiving placebo. It looks like the side effects are bad in some people but tolerable in most and should be less of an issue if the drug is given early in the infection. Also that list of side-effects is probably significantly over-reported since a bunch of that stuff will be COVID related; the quoted study had no control group so there was no way to tell. We’ll have to wait for the full data of the NIH trial and see what the incidence of side effect was in the remdesivir group compared to control.

Masks and other stuff do appear on ebay but check with the seller where it is actually shipping from and if they have it in stock. It’s been obvious from some of my orders that they are either (selling prior to having it in stock) or arbitraging by selling on ebay and then either ordering or having a third party send from China.

anyone ever been to New Zealand? What is it like? They apparently beat covid…

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I don’t know about that now. Imagine if, say, Merck had a covid-19 cure on ice a couple months ago. What would their valuation be right now? We’d be completely open for business, 70% of the public would be getting it, they’d be selling hundreds of millions of units of the drug domestically. Let alone internationally. They’d make 100B off of it, easy. The value of their company might be 3-4x what it currently is.

Seems like something a drug company would have been very wise to invest in, knowing it was going to happen within 10-50 years with near certainty.

Many times. It’s a great country. Their coronavirus outbreak and response has been similar to Australia’s. Their lockdown measures were a little more severe (like you could still get takeout from restaurants across Australia and not in NZ) and I’m not sure the extra severity really did anything. If you look at the numbers from Australia and NZ they are near-identical when you adjust for population. That said, it’s a well-governed country in general.

It’s like if Scotland and Hawaii had a baby.

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Which parent did the baby get its climate from?

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