COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Yeah why I didn’t post regular link, because La times doesn’t let you read the same story directly. It’s dumb.

Sadly it’s going to be on the order of 2-3 weeks. I’m basically assuming it’s a month cycle before things go back into lockdown if it’s bad.

Narrator-they didn’t go back into lockdown

I’m legit glad to be in a state that has an objective standard and will stick to it. Plus we get to see what happens elsewhere. If Atlanta has a major crisis…

What really sucks is they are really doing this with the most number of contagious people out walking around. That number has not dropped in any of the opening states. So even a week with a seven day doubling time is going to be catastrophic.

I’ve decided that we as a species are stupid when it comes to math and science.

2- at least a month.

I am wild guessing but like 15 days but by the time we see things spiraling they will have gone way beyond what we are seeing. So whenever we see it’s getting bad, just realize it’s going to get worse even if you react quickly.

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That’s the problem with exponential growth and even worse with lagging indicators.

What may be worse is a slow growth, they may stay with it longer or decided it’s tolerable.

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  1. Probably 3-4 weeks.

  2. Mid-fall in case Suzzer’s summer theory is accurate.

And good point on late summer and fall. If the thing does recede then we really relax in terms of big gatherings it will come back with a vengeance.

On a different note.

Jose Cuervo Twitter ad campaign.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JoseCuervo/status/1255125710982787075

Maybe pick up some Mexican food and get reimbursed.

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From the people who make a large percentage of our masks:

https://mobile.twitter.com/EarplugsLawsuit/status/1246792387051036674

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My county, Orange, has voted to start reopening things and the newport beach city council approved leaving the beaches open on the weekend, despite it drawing 40k+ the other weekend.

Good lord. The relatively small number of cases here has encouraged me to be a little less fearful when I have to be out and about. There’s almost certainly gonna be a huge spike in cases. Almost no one at the beaches is wearing a mask or doing anything close to social distancing.

The local comment threads are a disaster and raise my blood pressure a lot. This is so absolutely stupid.

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Definitely not worth the risk of having to go to a walk-in clinic to get the test. If it’s a drive-thru test, then disregard.

We’d probably hear stories about fires from people putting rocks in microwaves for an extended period of time.

In my dumb opinion, people aren’t going to get infected on the beaches themselves. The problem lies in all the stops at gas stations, convenience stores, etc etc etc and all the other human contact that is typically involved with an “outing” like that.

Got an email from the dealership in Van Nuys where I got my car that they’re opening back up for sales and service in May 1.

This is making me think of why people have so much trouble losing weight. They can eat nothing but celery for a month but then expect to be able to go back to pizza and beer three times a week and keep the weight off. Permanent lifestyle change is hard and requires consistency, dedication, and willpower. And if we’re going to get “back to business” it’s going to require big changes in how we do regular stuff, if we can do it at all. People suck at that.

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https://twitter.com/talialikeitis/status/1255256406443405312

whole thread is full of winners

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My orthodontist started saying stupid crap about climate change (some shit about weather in Las Vegas) and covid-19 being like the flu (early on). As I’d already signed up for Invisalign, which is a huge extravagance for me, I didn’t want to bail or piss him off. :slightly_frowning_face:

Anybody have thoughts or info about the Quest mail order antibody test? Do we know enough to conclude whether it is or isn’t a waste of time?

I’m playing wait and see. I had that really bad cough thing back in November. The wife wants me to take the test. I think my odds of it being Covid19 <<1%.

Especially when all the businesses will be holding “Grand Reopening” sales and people will be posting on FB about the great weather or the lovely meal they had. Not to mention all the trolls who just want to just keep harping on how this whole thing is an overreaction and all the young healthy people should just be out there living life. It takes a lot of willpower to stay hunkered down under those circumstances…

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When antibody testing becomes widespread a lot of people are going to find out their bad cold was just a bad cold.

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I’ve been very irritable lately. Serenity now.

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