COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

All good - check out my thoughts on it being administered early a couple posts up. That is one possible explanation for the results. Keep in mind that remdesivir is an Ebola/Marburg drug not a covid-19 drug. Stands to reason in my layman’s opinion that it might have some impact but not a huge one…

Thus getting it early while the viral load is low enough for a small impact to make a big difference could be key. Also this could explain why it shortens recovery time but doesn’t significantly alter final outcomes based on what we know.

Assume everyone’s immune system can fight off X amount of covid-19 viral load in Y days. If remdesivir can slow down covid-19 by say 5-10% (obviously making up numbers to illustrate my point), it could help speed up recovery or help prevent people from hitting the tipping point early on where covid-19 exponentially grows past what they can fight off.

This could also explain the 5-day vs 10-day treatment. Think of each person’s viral load as their own COVID-19 curve. If remdesivir flattens it, but only a little, it will mostly help the people who can’t quite fight it off in the beginning and speed things up for the people who are fighting it off at the end. Without knowing how high any individual’s peak would be, the effects in the middle may be completely negligible.

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Huh. Hasn’t tipped and is even steeper in the early opening states.

We are like the teenagers in the horror movie sneaking out to the little cabin in the woods to screw. Gosh golly gee what happens next.

My memory of youth: (Friday 13th part 2 with the bloody spear hitting the floor after being driven through both bodies and the mattress).

That actually makes a lot of sense on how it would work. If accurate it also means it gets more and more valuable the more testing we are doing right?

https://twitter.com/ReuvenBlau/status/1255290725744418816

I’ve got no problem with de Blasio calling these people out. They are a grave threat to the survival of everyone here because they don’t give a shit about reality and are allowed to get away with all kinds of shit that minorities would be given an express pass to Rikers for. But he should have obviously not just said “Jewish community.” When trying to be PC goes wrong.

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Yes and the kicker. He and the 88 year girlfriend had a “church only”’wedding Sunday because she is a practicing catholic who feels guilt about living in sin. It was just them and a deacon friend in their condo.

(Many debates in family If the church would actually recognize and also there are laws and legal cases about non-civil weddings that we are worried about for his estate and healthcare power of attorney).

So we don’t know if it’s him or her driving the plane so to speak.

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Yes, if my theory is right, that’s correct. Then the challenge, as Dan pointed out, is that it’s administered through an IV, so I’m not sure how efficiently we could do that early on in the process. Ideally you’d have a testing site, rapid results, positive test = here’s your remdesivir, call us if you experience shortness of breath. Maybe we have to leave the line in, and teach people to give the injection themselves twice a day? Doable. If it has to be done off a drip from a bag, that’s a problem.

Sure, but the premise isn’t that at least 50.1% of the deaths in Indiana are going to be Democrats, it’s that they will be overrepresented in the deaths… At least I think that’s the premise. In terms of the politics of it, what really makes the biggest difference is what happens in Michigan, Wisconsin, PA, and Arizona… And it’s not only the death toll. If Milwaukee and Detroit are being ravaged, for example, people may be more scared to go out and vote if they can’t do it from home. If they can do it from home, turnout could surge. So it’s hard to say.

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https://twitter.com/ReuvenBlau/status/1255294662958612483

If black people did that they’d be getting blasted with firehoses.

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If black people did that they’d be getting blasted with bullets.

fyp

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What’s the latest on the antibody tests? Wondering if it is worth me walking to the CityMD (doc in a box) and getting it done just to see, or if it’s wildly inaccurate and not worth it.

At this point, it’s not going to give you any meaningful info that you can use.

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Maybe at that point it’s a comorbidity risk factor calculation. Positive plus obese or diabetes or age…

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I have no idea on the quest thing. If you do it on your own it’s like $130. Free if your doc orders it but I think they have to sign off why you need it.

I couldn’t tell from the news I saw if it’s a validated test or not.

https://twitter.com/mutludc/status/1255513310331580416?s=21

Probably worth it for someone in NYC, unless the false positive rate is sky high a positive result would very likely mean you had it.

https://twitter.com/ForbesScience/status/1255292848762687490

I’m not sure how trump supporters would get lava to ingest but I’m looking forward to that news.

Huh. Someone in the federal supply chain doesn’t believe Trump or IHME. We’ve heard about the January and February PDBs but this makes you wonder what the April ones say.

So it appears like the great reopening experiment is set to start on Friday in many parts of the country. A couple questions since I’m not as on top of the data side of this as many in here are.

Provided that we are doing this with nowhere near the testing capacity we need:

  1. If this goes horribly wrong, how soon would you expect to see signs show up that things have gone off the rails?

  2. How long would we need to be reopened for without any negative signs for you to believe that things are going well?

I just recently listened to a podcast on the NYC and their summons system. They’re basically still doing the stop and frisk but calling it something else. There are 12 guys within the NYC trying to sue because they’re doing unconstitutional stops of blacks and latino young males issuing them summons for complete bullshit, and when they don’t show up arresting them pumping up their states. Pretty interesting podcast

https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/76h967/127-the-crime-machine-part-i