COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

I never look at cases. I’m always looking at hospitalizations or deaths. Yes that could be off due to lack of testing - maybe even by a factor of double or more in some places. But the general trend should still be informative.

Are there even hospitalization stats for most states?

Yes - a lot of them. https://covidtracking.com/data

Almost every state says N/A for current hospitalized cases?

15 of 57 states or territories have current hospitization stats?

Click on the state and look at the trend. Most of the states of concern seem to have it. It’s not great but one more data point. Otherwise you have to look at deaths or maybe cases / total tests if they have it.

Am i wrong in saying these stats are only covid positive tested cases that are hospitalized for 15 or 57 states? If the testing is non existent or delayed how is this data relevant?

Lots of people would be hospitalized but not included right? Just like every other statistical category? What makes NY data unique to anything else I have seen is they are reporting total hospitalization numbers whether positive or not.

I’m honestly not trying to be an ass I have been trying to make sense of this data myself for weeks and it seems like with very limited exceptions it is basically worthless.

Most of the hot spot states have something. I’m not really super worried about S. Dakota or Guam atm. Mostly interested in NY and Louisiana and a few others right now.

Assuming lots of people hospitalized somehow are being misdiagnosed - if anything that is a trend you’d expect to improve over time, not get worse. In which case if hospitalizations are leveling off that is probably a good trend (even if they’re still only half the total cases or w/e).

As mentioned itt, the IMHE guys have also massively changed their models to reflect the latest data: https://covid19.healthdata.org/ Louisiana went from looking like a catastrophe in the making to now they’re saying will get through it w/o a hospital crunch.

You can always fall back to looking at deaths, but it’s just going to lag.

Don’t forget that tons of people in the us avoid hospitals/doctors like the plague.

1 Like

Especially now. So yeah that’s going to skew all kinds of data.

Non-COVID admits in NY are way down. Part of it is people avoiding the hospital and part is fewer car accidents, etc., as a result of the shutdown.

I’m ok with saying they are catching the majority of cases in states like Texas that have a low positive/administered ratio.

They covered most of it. I tapped out after about an hour or so.

1 Like

Interesting video.
I had pneumonia when I was 12 or 13, and used to do something similar. I would breath in as much as possible, then swallow air to force my lungs to open. I could hear my lungs crackle as air disturbed the mucus. After a couple times I would cough up the most disgusting dark semi-solid chunks.
Maybe a balloon would help get the lungs to fill up even further.

1 Like

According to my daughter in the Bronx (who likely has COVID), she knows a number of sick people who aren’t hospitalized but can’t get tested.

1 Like

Can we not?

3 Likes

Can you include New York in these from now on? It’s just one row.

Manhattan Beach issued 129 citations for social distancing violations over the weekend and shutdown 4 construction sites.

1 Like

has anyone heard how soon you would test positive on a test after being infected?

But that data doesn’t list all hospitalizations. It lists COVID-19 hospitalizations even in the few states that actually have data.(Or maybe I am just a moron and don’t get how to read it.) If you have a testing bottleneck then the covid positive hospitalization number will be just as compromised as everything else.

I get crackling breath sometimes after I go hiking at altitude for several weekends in a row. Always wondered if it’s something I should be worried about. I did google. But the results were weird.