COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Let’s face it, with they way the Over serve restaurants fries at least 1/3 and maybe 1/2 are going to the rats anyhow.

Definitely bodes well for getting OPEN FOR BUSINESS.

The county I work in implemented a “must wear masks in public” rule over the weekend and yesterday our vending machine supplier showed up to our building with no mask saying that it was unnecessary to wear one because he believes the flu is more dangerous than COVID-19. A coworker sent out an email blasting the dude and saying to avoid the vending machine for a few days just in case, and within 5 minutes someone sent this response:
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I was worried people were going to be more like the vending machine guy so it’s nice to see that at least as a company we’re taking shit seriously.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/ShowtimeForum/status/1254855364022923264

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That’s amazing. California is doing well following science and facts, and these guys are like “Look, our numbers are low, dunno why but it’s clearly time to ignore the data and science and OPEN ER UP!”

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No way in hell is iron81 letting any of those fries go to waste.

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I’m not sure what the point of being incredulous about reopening plans is at this point.

We’re pretty much a lock to remain R>1 for the foreseeable future. We’ve seen the patience of people wear out keeping R modestly below 1. It probably doesn’t matter hugely what the government allows to open and reopen; traffic has been increasing steadily in Atlanta for 2 weeks, even before the lockdown was lifted for services and restaurants. We just need to accept that 1-3k deaths/day for the next few months is our range. There’s no way in the world we overperform that.

Hopefully a treatment comes about, and hopefully the weather does slow it down somewhat.

Unfortunately the first politcians start to argue that these numbers are not real and just politically motivated because now that we start to reopen again a rising R could prevent further measures. Its really hard to enjoy decreasing infection numbers when on the other hand I want to see some of these idiot politicians burn.

If we decide to plateau then we need to wait for the active infection number to decrease. dramatically take then load off the healthcare system. Of course the measures to stay at or just above 1 aren’t much more relaxed that now.

More evidence for the amount of infection theory:

On one hand, Aussie is killing it here at a local grocery. On the other hand, this gentleman arrived without his own face mask. Tsk.

https://gfycat.com/merryshorttermdotterel

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This pretty much nails where we are and where we are headed in my worthless opinion. It is also why the USA is a lock to have the worst or at least one of the worst times with this headed forward out of the first world. It turns out it isn’t good to have moronic anti-science dipshits running your government during a pandemic.

Please welcome Georgia and Maryland to the 1,000 death club.

JFC - they’re killing doctors who speak out. And Trump gets more and more envious of that kind of real power.

Pouring one out for Little Donny

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These are the beefy doctors I posted earlier who seem very popular in denial land.

Owners of an urgent care in Bakersfield join the Ingraham angle! Bahaha. I don’t need to read anything further than that right? They found a “doctor in California” to criticize locks downs to own the libs.

I enjoyed this thread though leave it to others to help assess her accuracy.

https://twitter.com/KillerMartinis/status/1255028047914377217
https://twitter.com/KillerMartinis/status/1255032479850860545

Saw this one and thought of @boredsocial

https://twitter.com/KillerMartinis/status/1255038228450738177

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NY usually keeps adding throughout the day I believe?

I mean I strongly disagree with her last point. Capacity is anything but tight. What’s tight is the business situation of the typical small trucking company. 2019 was a pretty lousy year for them and 2020 is looking downright apocalyptic. If you want a truck right now it’s trivially easy to get one for a rate that is well below the trucks operating costs… but the downside to that is that this trucking crash is going to destroy a ton of supply.

I predict that when the economy really tries to get back to full speed there’s going to be a substantial shortage of trucks and transportation costs are going to be at or above 2018 levels (when lots of publicly traded companies missed earnings and blamed trucking costs).

As for ‘just in time’ logistics I’ve felt it’s grossly overplayed for years. It’s the type of thing that makes a lot of sense with a very specific set of supply chains, but proliferated way beyond that point thanks to business schools and people doing it mindlessly. I suspect that they’ll be a lot less fashionable going forward, and that’s probably a good thing.

If your supply chain doesn’t involve spoilage or wastage of some sort (food, fashion, anything where inventory ‘rots’ over time in a significant way) JIT is not for you. If you make a product that stays largely the same for significant time periods you should be buying in larger bulk for discounted costs and increased productivity through never having a shutdown for lack of inventory.

Yes it’s really nice to minimize inventory on your balance sheet, but it’s really important to know how much it costs you for your worst bottleneck to sit idle for an hour. There are a ton of businesses that are under the impression that JIT is free money. It’s not. It’s a risky strategy that can be less risky than risking having inventory get hung up somewhere and rot.

Even something like a fashion retailer can hurt themselves by doing too much JIT. What happens if you have an unexpectedly hot item and you lose sales because you couldn’t get the reorder done fast enough to capitalize? With apparels gross margins being as high as they are making absolutely certain you don’t lose sales through selling out is as big of a concern as not having to sell leftovers to TJ Max.

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Thank you for the insight into your domain :+1:

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