State in Australia allowing outdoor gatherings of up to 10 people again. I’m starting to suspect we have no new cases by June.
What is PDQ?
chain that was discussed here earlier
Never had it before, but it did ring a bell of hearing it before
[cool story bro]
A few years ago, my parents came into town for a visit. My dad and I went to the Chick-Fil-A drive thru to pick up dinner for six people, so not the cheapest fast food bill ever. When we pulled up to the window, the girl said we were the 100th customer (since what time, I don’t know), so our food was on the house. We assumed she was joking, so my dad gave her his credit card. She insisted it was true, refused his card, gave us our food, and sent us on our way.
[/cool story bro]
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The comments on this thread are just packed with information. Lots of stuff I hadn’t read anywhere - but lots of stuff I have - and all of that lines up completely. These commenters on hacker news really know their stuff and there are almost no idiots.
IE - about the antibody studies:
ptrincr 9 hours ago [[-]](javascript:void(0))Apologies for the way this was linked to. The 6% is from this study:
https://www.miamidade.gov/releases/2020-04-24-sample-testing…
“Our data from this week and last tell a very similar story. In both weeks, 6% of participants tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, which equates to 165,000 Miami-Dade County residents”
That is what the commentator is referring to in the linked post.
So if you plug their own figures into the calculator:
Sensitivity .8866 Specificity .9063
and a Prevalence of .06 based on the study, you get the 62% false positive rate.
As the prevalence increases, as with the NYC study which found the positive rate to be 21% (prevalence), the false positive rate decreases, down to 28% of the NYC study.
Also (assuming this is accurate):
The USS Theodore Roosevelt situation was discussed here several days ago. At this time about 60% of the crew who tested positive are still asymptomatic. Enough time has passed that we can be confident they aren’t just presymptomatic. Numbers are pretty solid since they were all quarantined and tracked. Infection fatality rate was about 0.1%, however that’s probably not representative of the general population.
So there’s your IFR floor for a young, extremely fit, healthy population.
What do their dogs look like and what fast food do they eat?
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Depends what you mean by save.
Comparisons here of year on year death rates show a total of around 41000 deaths in excess of seasonal norms so far, but more worryingly the daily death totals are still around 700-800 and although the levelling off is welcome we’ve yet to see it start to drop appreciably.
Meanwhile the country is running out of money and firms will start going to the wall before long.
In addition to his natural callousness for others, Johnson also has his paymasters aka big business to consider, and they are pressurising him to start easing some of the quarantine restrictions, measures that could prove disastrous and which fly in the face of the UKs medical experts who say this shouldn’t be considered until daily deaths drop to a few hundred.
It’s absolutely scandalous how badly this has been handled by Downing St. The llight at the end of the tunnel is that in Starmer we now have a credible leader of the opposition who waverers would probably feel comfortable in switching their votes to, and with the public’s satisfaction with the governments handling of this crisis falling there are many factors Johnson will have to weigh into any decisions he makes. Of course, Starmer can’t magic the virus away but the sooner we get rid of this shower of shit the better.
I think, like a lot of countries, our one time is if the warmer weather of the coming months helps us.
This important thread is becoming fucking unreadable with all these derails.
Excise the dogs and fast food ffs.
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My brain is stuck in a loop:
How could anyone be that stupid? Well, the president is that stupid. But how could anyone be that stupid? Well, the president is that stupid.
Repeat forever.
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I got over it a long time ago because I know plenty of people who are that stupid, or worse. It’s why I proudly proclaim myself to be a nanny state liberal.
Just tell me one thing. Why do I believe in democracy?
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It seems like we could increase capacity for this more easily, and it may require way less expertise to administer - as in similar outcomes with a nurse, doc, or respiratory specialist which is not the case with a vent. Right, @hobbes9324? Hope you’re well, by the way - haven’t seen you here in a bit.
If that’s all the case, the move could be to max the number of beds/patients in a big enclosed space since you’re less worried about people already infected sharing germs… Although there may be viral load issues with that. Having medical workers go in and out of 20 sealed rooms to treat 20 patients seems very suboptimal.
Ok, so agreement that we handled it worse than China, France, Germany, South Korea and Australia, and
agreement the government’s never acted fast enough to prevent the spread, and
disapprove of the government’s handling of testing so far, but
Nation of sheep.
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His parents kept the kids home and only went shopping twice. But their 4-year-old son still contracted coronavirus and had to fight for his life in a Denver ICU.
The woman who wrote the story works at a hospital, she left the house more than two times. The kid was in “isolation” for a whole 8 days before showing symptoms. Also, they admitted they actually did go outside and walk the kids around theIr neighborhood
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This State Senator in (pauses for effect) Michigan is just proud of his heritage.
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Which means any general population IFR of 0.1% is bullshit.
Discounting some of these odd longer term effexts (eg clotting related issues) that’s the insidious piece of this. It is only as deadly as the flu in the best possible spreader Mobile demographic.
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The flu would not have an IFR of .1 percent on an aircraft carrier though. It would be much much lower
Tru dat. My poor analogy attempt at tying the “it’s just the flu” idioicy with “that’s what makes it so dangerous”. Normal flu obviously hits young adults far less than average. But it at least make them feel like crap so they aren’t as likely to spread it around like Covid.
Plus the generalized 0.1 IFR calc from the bogus AB studies.