COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

I’ve taken that option more than once when the porta-potty was particularly grim.

Dunno who you think you’re talking to brother. Most of the “guys” you’re addressing think you’re halfway to awval.

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As long as the hositals have space. Admits get real low when there’s no room - 300 vents left in NY

As long as the testing fuckups are happening in a systematic way, you can still conclude that the number of infections is going down.

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Are they reporting hospital admissions or icu admissions. Because normally only the icu is the bottleneck.

hold on, i will get the stats on this. i don’t think churchill has been following the new york situation as closely, so maybe that is why he is so pessimistic.

I’ve been applying the ‘it’s a virus, US ain’t special but it’s counting lags more than anywhere in ROW, and stats seem to suggest US is ‘running good’ but that’s only because sharkscope hasn’t recorded your last 20,000 sng’s or the two week vacation Donnie took in the crisis’

but you could be different from ROW

When the vents are full, then the death numbers rebound (every 4 days is the pattern)

If this keeps up they can just cancel the stimulus payments and UI bonus and send everyone back to work.

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https://twitter.com/DrGolfShirt/status/1246925820070965249?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrGolfShirt/status/1246953838520795141?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrGolfShirt/status/1246959721376071685?s=20

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6 day peak No take out food in Spain. No collect from grocery in Italy.

Gimme a shout when you Lockdown and get the red dot.

Graphs from yesterday, both countries have spiked in deaths today

5 gallon bucket per worker. Ez game

Damn just heard on MSNBC that 50% of people admitted to the ICU for coronavirus in the UK have died.

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You think your parents are listening to you. Then you get a call: “We’re at Micro-Center buying a new desktop computer for [stepdad] - the salesman says this one kind of anti-virus is better than McAfee and we should buy it.”

GAHHHHHHHH

So many wrong things. Mom are there people there and are they wearing masks? You know you can do all this online? Maybe call me BEFORE you’re in the damn store? AND FUCK ALL ANTIVIRUS SOFTWARE.

@#)$@_#)$@)#O$U)(@#$U)@#O$U@O#ruLQKWNDKLNWERKWERN

Well no, there’s people in here and no one is wearing masks. Oh I know. We listen to you. I promise. Putting my mask back on now.

Want to know why the fuck olds and the midwest are getting hammered? It’s this shit right here. Let’s take a goddam trip down to Microcenter to buy a desktop computer from a human salesman.

My stepdad is an architect and needs a big monitor to work from home. I guarantee you he doesn’t realize you can drive a big monitor from a laptop. If they bought a laptop they could send it to me first, I remove all the crapware and get just what they want set up, then send it to them. Now I have to deal with phone-based tech support on a fucking crapware-loaded desktop for the rest of their lives.

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In other relatively hopeful news, NYC ED admissions due to respiratory and flu-like-illnesses are now declining to Jan 2020 levels, although this might be impacted by people’s unwillingness to go to the hospital. We’ll see if this can be sustained–it’s a really volatile indicator.

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It seems like local data are more informative if you are trying to understand what might happen in New York state, which is largely driven by the New York Metro area. The state being at or near the peak now doesn’t seem outside the range of what has happened elsewhere.

I know fuck all about epidemiological models, but here is what the only state-level models I could find are predicting for New York.

source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/

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We just had a friend email us. She lives on the opposite of t our township. In her neighborhood this weekend, the young families had a block party and the kids were playing “quarantine”- one kid running around yelling quarantine and the other kids having to try and stay six feet away from that kid.

She signed the note- every so often, God culls the herd of stupid people.

So “quarantine” is 2020s version of Ring around the Rosie.

apparently scholars say that it’s bunk that the song originated during the plague

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One of the scarier things about this is people seem to be shedding virus long after they’re symptomatic - based on the study in Vo and some other stuff I’ve read.

Goddam lucky Brits. Why couldn’t this be the US? I’m not wishing death but man just taking Trump out of commission for a while would help this country soooooooooo much.

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https://twitter.com/Maarblek/status/1247244245540450306

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