My brother hasn’t had a fever in 7 days. Dr told him he can go out in public now as long as he maintains social distancing. They aren’t going to test him to see if he’s negative. Seems like they should but 🤷🏻
My friend’s son has 100.5 fever. Went to the doc, they tested for flu and strep. Both negative so underpants gnomes he’s covid free or something? But they still want him to quarantine himself for 14 days 
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Don’t want to count my chickens before they hatch, but it looks like New York is starting to turn the corner. If that’s true, it will have a better outcome than Italy and Spain in per capita terms, but a worse outcome than almost all of the rest of the U.S. So I’m trying to figure out what they should have done differently.
Below I’ve posted the complete daily history of confirmed cases in the state. This is a little different than the numbers that I have been posting regularly here for some time. I’ve changed the dates to reflect the day the test results came in instead of the day they were announced in a press conference. And I’ve compared the latest dataset from the state to what I had compiled from the press conferences, which has resulted in some adjustments.
Some key policy dates: Schools were closed statewide beginning on 3/16, and bars, restaurants, malls, and gyms were closed starting that evening. All employees of non-essential businesses were required to work from home starting from the evening of 3/22 (this was phased in gradually over the few days preceding this, but I’m having trouble finding an exact timeline).
I think if these policies had been moved up a week, it would have made a big difference. But would it have made sense from at that point to start shutting down the state with only 151 confirmed cases? Probably not. I think the main problem was that there were actually many many more cases at that point but no one knew because tests were so scarce. If the federal government had acted more quickly on testing, or had just used the same tests from other countries, I think we could have seen a much different outcome here.
| Day | Date | Daily Tests | New Cases | Total Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 3/2/2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Tuesday | 3/3/2020 | 9 | - | 1 |
| Wednesday | 3/4/2020 | 20 | 2 | 3 |
| Thursday | 3/5/2020 | 92 | 22 | 25 |
| Friday | 3/6/2020 | 66 | 11 | 36 |
| Saturday | 3/7/2020 | 200 | 24 | 60 |
| Sunday | 3/8/2020 | 307 | 28 | 88 |
| Monday | 3/9/2020 | 401 | 63 | 151 |
| Tuesday | 3/10/2020 | 425 | 44 | 195 |
| Wednesday | 3/11/2020 | 553 | 56 | 251 |
| Thursday | 3/12/2020 | 762 | 102 | 353 |
| Friday | 3/13/2020 | 1,290 | 164 | 517 |
| Saturday | 3/14/2020 | 1,293 | 131 | 648 |
| Sunday | 3/15/2020 | 1,936 | 294 | 942 |
| Monday | 3/16/2020 | 2,907 | 432 | 1,374 |
| Tuesday | 3/17/2020 | 4,553 | 1,009 | 2,383 |
| Wednesday | 3/18/2020 | 7,698 | 1,769 | 4,152 |
| Thursday | 3/19/2020 | 10,124 | 2,950 | 7,102 |
| Friday | 3/20/2020 | 13,087 | 3,254 | 10,356 |
| Saturday | 3/21/2020 | 16,029 | 4,812 | 15,168 |
| Sunday | 3/22/2020 | 16,812 | 5,707 | 20,875 |
| Monday | 3/23/2020 | 12,952 | 4,790 | 25,665 |
| Tuesday | 3/24/2020 | 12,142 | 5,145 | 30,810 |
| Wednesday | 3/25/2020 | 18,650 | 6,448 | 37,258 |
| Thursday | 3/26/2020 | 16,351 | 7,379 | 44,637 |
| Friday | 3/27/2020 | 17,444 | 7,681 | 52,318 |
| Saturday | 3/28/2020 | 16,401 | 7,195 | 59,513 |
| Sunday | 3/29/2020 | 14,155 | 6,984 | 66,497 |
| Monday | 3/30/2020 | 18,648 | 9,298 | 75,795 |
| Tuesday | 3/31/2020 | 15,701 | 7,917 | 83,712 |
| Wednesday | 4/1/2020 | 18,031 | 8,669 | 92,381 |
| Thursday | 4/2/2020 | 21,555 | 10,482 | 102,863 |
| Friday | 4/3/2020 | 23,101 | 10,841 | 113,704 |
| Saturday | 4/4/2020 | 18,659 | 8,327 | 122,031 |
| Sunday | 4/5/2020 | 18,531 | 8,658 | 130,689 |
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Atlanta isn’t a poorer area. It’s 15th in the country, one spot behind New York. New Orleans is 170th so that’s more accurate.
For obesity, Atlanta is 74th in the country, one spot ahead of NYC; NOLA is 12th so you got that one right.
So if you are calling Atlanta poor and obese then you are calling NYC poor and obese.
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People’s impression of NYC may be more Manhattan, which hasn’t been hit that hard, relatively speaking. The Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn are poorer and more obese. It varies neighborhood by neighborhood.
“What do you have to lose?”
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City of MB’s reaction was that they will monitor and supposedly strictly enforce 6’ separation on work sites. I’ll get a first hand look at some point if things haven’t changed in the next few weeks.
Thoughts and prayers!
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Correct me if I’m wrong but 4/3 and 4/5 seems to have the same incident rate, just more tests were done on 4/3. That doesnt sound like turning a corner to me
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My comment on turning the corner is based on deaths being flat for the past 3 days and hospitalizations, ICU admits, and intubations all being down day-over-day. Too early to tell for sure, but at least the numbers are headed in the right direction.
And it looks like deaths in NYC peaked a few days ago (the last two bars are incomplete counts):
https://mobile.twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1247241419615584263
Oh shit…
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1247240953590681600
The obviously correct point made by local unions is that maintaining 6’ separation on a construction site is loooooooool. Unstated is that construction workers aren’t exactly the most hygienic and conscientious, and job sites aren’t known for being pristine. I have nightmares about using porta-potties under even the best circumstances.
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Union walkout might affect commercial and industrial construction, but in CA it won’t much touch residential.
Careful guys, you’re going to suuuuupppper trigger @microbet by having the audacity to use instacart when you should be doing the shopping yourself.
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Nailed it (pardon the pun). Even if you cut your crew size down you have to provide each worker with their own portapotty or it’s a waste of time
Not directly, but definitely indirectly.
Can’t you just dig a hole in the ground and cover it up when the job is done?
Wow, just a 6 day ‘peak’ - Italy, France, Spain, UK and even China (i.e. ROW) are wondering how NY did it when the press is full of parks and city squares heavily populated during the weekend.
NY is at least 2 weeks from peak.
I hope you’re right but I feel the cool-aid is strong based off tests still made 4 days ago (lag in test results, let alone deaths outside of hospitals)
Hospital admits down though. That one should be independent of testing f-ups.