Pretty sure that’s a feather duster or something. Def not a dog.
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lol
My understanding is better. At least the false positive rate is a lot lower than the detected rate. I think the NY sampling was somewhat better getting people at the store. Still some bias as no shut ins. I don’t know about Miami.
CA is pretty bad when your result is 3 +/- 3.
10-15x seems to fit bigger studies and more carefully determined IFRs elsewhere in the world.
Fair enough hahaha. He weighs like 4 lbs
Yeah I know. Gotta dream. Hopefully some liability judgements against The Smithfields of the world can help. A functioning OSHA would help.
+50 
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We have an almost 16 year old that is about 7lbs. She pretty much refuses to get decrepit enough to even consider putting her down and she still has lots of fun. We had a house party with 40-50 people and 10 or so dogs last year for her Quincenera (some of my wife’s family is Puerto Rican and I guess they do it for all the girls but we can’t have kids). It was a great success. We even got her a custom made dress. We might be a little weird…
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Johnny, your pet rat is adorable
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The exponential decay doesn’t seem right, as Wichita said. It might kind of fit, like the linear model kinda sorta almost fits, but it’s likely a case of overfitting a model to relatively noisy data. Looking at that French model, they used tons of adjustments to fine tune their estimates. Time from infection to death or positive test to death, adjusted for age, with estimates of the numbers infected per age group smoothed out and adjusted, etc., etc.
I think one fairly straightforward adjustment to add would be adding a factor for the the percentage of positive tests on the t-9 (or maybe a different interval, once the positivity is factored in). This way, the model captures the CFR going down as testing capacity improves. The interval could be seeded by looking at the data from Italy.
Here’s the output of my R program to calculate an exponential fit to the NY numbers. Still around 100 deaths/day a month from now.
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For the record I can’t really talk shit. I have two cats and they’re assholes. I’m way too lazy to have a dog, though
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lmao thats so fucking dope. Good shit. My dog is 15 and is still rocking and rolling as well. Kinda weirds me out. She still runs around and jumps on the bed and shit. I stress sometimes thinking about needing to put her down soon :(.
Till then though I’m gonna spoil the shit out of her.
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Ya I’m with you on dreading the day she isn’t around. But all you can do with other people or pets is enjoy the time we have. It isn’t fair but we don’t have much control over it either.
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Ikes might be frontline virus fighter by now
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What is going on at Stanford. People trying to pin failed studies on them for fish tank cleaner all the while they keep spewing.
I legitimately got mad just reading “Ikes.” What a world class piece of shit.
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Need double heart for that
US is going to take longer. The NY data is outsized and driving the math but the rest of the US combined is not at peak daily deaths yet. Especially in terms of daily numbers the non-NY death term will become More dominant. Unclear if there will be a second small peak in deaths per day or just a slower descent. I’m still getting 500-600/day on June 1 assuming a 20% per week drop. Maybe I’ll try and do peaked vs non peaked states next Tuesday or Wednesday (to avoid the weekend reporting difficulties).
I’m a little confused on the graphs. You are saying 100/day just NY- that I agree with.
You can fit an exponential to your data. It will just have a small negative exponent. In chemostat cultures (continuous feed in and out) there can be a washout term with that shape and it is pretty much happens when R<1 in this case.
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That’s a tough dog. I tried and failed to befriend it, and I’m extremely charming.
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Poppy in pink will fuck you up. She and a very big dog were barking at each other through the big dogs fence. A guy in a big SUV pulled up and said
That little dog is telling that big dog that he is lucky there’s a fence between them.
Same little dog that curls up in my lap all evening.
Jake in green may be partly the reason for my hamstring. He loves to take off running with me hanging on for dear life. Speed demon.
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