A long delayed Indonesia update:
Testing is ramping up very slowly. Now there are 45 labs available to do tests, up from 1 in early March. Testing capacity in total is about 4,000-5,000/day from low hundreds earlier.
The president has asked for at least 10,000/day but a Health Ministry spokesperson has said that is impossible. Which is bunk, as obviously other countries, including poorer countries than Indonesia are testing much more. However, there are legitimate concerns about the availability of test kits/reagents, as those have to still be imported, and the competition for them is fierce.
There are now 8,211 official cases, another 18,000 or so suspected cases. The official death toll is 689, but reporters digging up burial records have found that there were about 1,400 additional deaths in Jakarta alone in the month of March. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the actual death toll is probably closer to 5,000, perhaps even higher.
Yet even at that number it is clear that the outbreak is less severe in Indonesia (pop 270 million) than it is in Europe or US. So maybe lots of sunlight/heat/humidity does play a significant role. That is the good news.
The bad news is that already an exodus of people from urban areas to rural areas has started. This is fueled by two main factors: 1) many unemployed migrant workers in the cities seeking the support of their home villages, where at least they can farm/forage for food, and 2) the annual travel home (called Mudik) for Eid, which normally would start about 2 weeks from now, but many have started already. Normally the Eid travel is analogous to Lunar New Year in China or Thanksgiving in the US. Last year about 20 million traveled.
So the gov’t has hemmed and hawed on whether to ban Mudik, but finally the president announced a ban on the 21st. To be effective on the 24th. So predictably a lot of people moved their schedule forward. Also, desperate people are trying to get around the ban, even going so far as travelling in baggage compartments. The government has also banned basically all air travel until June 1st, but that was already dying out on it’s own the last month or so.
https://twitter.com/saeval/status/1253674077702647808