Sure. But it looks like that’s true of a lot of countries where testing has remained an issue. Probably due to testing supplies bottlenecks globally? Who knows. But I’m just saying that our 150,000 tests per day is enough to be at where the average country’s testing per capita level is.
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That NYT article I posted earlier in Trump thread talked about how he doesn’t attend the meeting about the virus before the press conference. He is handed his speech at the last second, writes on it with a sharpie and takes the stage.
In case anyone thinks Trump is privy to information he is ignoring, he is not. He purposefully remains ignorant.
Any American could obtain Trump’s daily knowledge by watching Fox News, CNN and MSNBC from 5 am to Noon. You will then be informed identically to the president.
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Positive rate continues to fall in New York. And it looks like testing is ramping up again. Yesterday nearly 35,000 tests were processed, making it the largest volume day by a wide margin.
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Well the danger level is probably something like closed windows >> open air Jeep with sunshine and wind >>>> one open window where a bad wind from the car in front can blow in and just sit there in the car out of the sunshine.
This is a good point. There are people in America who have been tested multiple times. It doesn’t really matter though as we are far from adequate testing and trump thinks bringing it up is an attempt to keep him from being re-elected.
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More on the WHO’s vaccine fast-track plan
We brought you news of the Covid-19 initiative launched by the World Health Organization (WHO) earlier and we’ve now got some more details.
The WHO describes the Access to Covid Tools (ACT) Accelerator programme as a “call to action” for a global, coordinated response to the pandemic.
The aim is to fund, research, develop and distribute treatments, technologies and vaccines against the virus worldwide.
The WHO hopes to raise €7.5bn euros (£6.5bn; $8.1bn) when it launches a global pledging effort at a summit on 4 May.
“This is a first step only, but more will be needed in the future,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen who helped launch the programme on Friday.
Leaders from the 20 countries, including France, South Africa, Germany, Malaysia and the UK, have pledged their support for the initiative.
As part of the programme, the WHO has appointed two special envoys to lead global co-operation on vaccine research.
Dozens of potential Covid-19 vaccines are being developed around the world, including in the UK, where a human trial has begun.
It is astonishing that he can’t even bring himself to listen to like a 5 minute summary from actual experts. If it’s not about him, dude is like physically incapable of paying attention.
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Nasa to brief Trump on virus response
President Donald Trump will receive a briefing from officials who work for Nasa, the government agency that deals with space, at the White House later today.
The officials will talk about their response to Covid-19.
Space exploration has already led to important developments on earth: satellites make it easier to issue hurricane warnings, for example.
These days, the Nasa scientists are helping to fight the virus. They have designed a new ventilator, a prototype that has been tested in New York.
Love that you’re doing the blog… I’d suggest making the right side where you list your credentials and blog description a little easier to read:
DAN
BEACOM
CONSULTANT IN FERMENTATION MICROBIOLOGY.
THIS BLOG SHARES MY THOUGHTS ON THE COVID-19 CRISIS. PLEASE CHECK OUT THE REST OF THE SITE. CONTACT ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS: DAN@BEACOMCONSULTING.COM.
I’d also consider losing some of the caps, maybe put your name in caps if you like the look of it, but do the rest regular or even all lower case if you’re going for an all upper/all lower style.
From a writing perspective, skimming the first blog post, I think you need a stronger lede. I view blogging as somewhat similar to journalism, and you want to lead with the most important information, summarized as simply as possible for the reader. You go with:
I do not understand how the IHME model works. Apparently this is an ongoing problem. A 2018 Korean paper (Biomed Res Int. 2018; 2018: 7236194) comparing IHME and WHO models contains this statement:
Despite the in-depth review, there was “black box” that could not be explained specifically.
I don’t like opening with “I do not understand.” This puts the blame on you for not understanding, rather than on them for having a shitty model. I’d re-write that to:
The IHME model is deeply flawed, which is frightening given how widely it’s being used by political leaders. Apparently I’m not alone in recognizing this problem. A 2018 Korean paper (Biomed Res Int. 2018; 2018: 7236194) comparing IHME and WHO models contains this statement: Despite the in-depth review, there was a “black box” that could not be explained specifically.
I’d also push the math that is going to lose a lot of people a little farther down, and move the layman’s terms a little farther up. It’ll make it more likely that people share your information and even perhaps get some widespread attention on the problems with the IHME model and/or on your better model.
You write:
IHME statements described “Gaussian fits”. The problem is that mathematical distribution functions have no direct first principle design in growth. The correct math is X=X0e^ut where X=cases now Xo=starting cases u=growth rate (Mu) and t=time. The spread of infection mimics microbial growth.
There is no support or the idea that the “growth” of infections shape should impact the “extinction” of infections shape other than the magnitude of total numbers prior to the retreat in daily number of cases. That is, the downcurve of cases is likely to be much slower than the upcurve, especially in a more open society where extreme Wuhan style lockdown is unlikely.
I would write:
The IHME has described its model as using “Gaussian fits,” but that is a problematic approach. There is no support for the idea that the growth of the curve of an infection should impact the decline of the curve. The downcurve of cases is actually likely to be much slower than the upcurve, especially in a more open society where extreme Wuhan-style lockdown is unlikely.
The problem is that mathematical distribution functions have no direct first principle design in growth. The correct math is X=X0e^ut where X=cases now Xo=starting cases u=growth rate (Mu) and t=time. The spread of infection mimics microbial growth.
Unless your goal is specifically to reach people in the scientific community, I think you want to try to keep it laymen friendly in the first couple paragraphs, get some graphs in there, then hit them with the more complicated descriptions as you show your work. Think of the first sentence and first paragraph as your most critical findings/hypothesis.
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Great stuff @anon38180840
I’ll promote the blog on my FB, I think I’ll have some people interested in it.
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‘I faked having Covid-19 and got arrested’
Michael Lane Brandin knew his Facebook post would cause a stir.
What he didn’t realise was that he’d be arrested, lose his job and face a trial that could see him behind bars.
It was an otherwise dull afternoon in March and the debate about how to cope with the potential outbreak of coronavirus was all over his timeline.
So he decided to, in his own words, “do a social experiment”.
Mr Brandin posted that he had tested positive for coronavirus. And then he added that doctors had told him the virus was now airborne.
But he had made it up.
Mr Brandin says his point was to demonstrate that you can’t always believe everything you read online. But the fake news spread like wildfire across Tyler County, in Texas where he lived.
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After Trump’s idiotic and dangerous comment about ‘injecting disinfectant’, I want to retract a post I made above about applying extra nicotine patches to my arms and legs. It was an attempt at humor and I figured everyone here is smart enough to know that. But these are scary times and people may do desperate and dumb things. Applying multiple patches to your body would be a dumb thing to do. Moreover, the patches leave a red rash/welt after I remove it, for which my doc gave me some skin cream to alleviate the red, itchy, welt.
Nicotine is a poison and will easily kill you if not used as suggested by the product’s and/or your doctor’s directions.
Now I need to go find the nicotine gum I have around here somewhere. I have two kinds: shitty flavor and cinnamon. Damn, there is none stuck under desk. 
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Fear porn
my favorite quote
Some people might even get infected with both the flu and COVID-19 at the same time. While health experts don’t know exactly how that would make COVID-19 worse, “I can’t imagine that would be good,” Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said.
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Trump at tomorrow’s presser: “What if we could inject COVID patients with the flu so the germs can fight each other in the body? Try it, what do you have to lose.”
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Your pony missed it’s nicotine stimulation today
Not sure if serious but more deaths than say Caffeine? (I suspect not)
Just when I thought the markets couldn’t get any worse
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I wonder if watching porn might work like nicotine might and protect me from catching the virus.
I think there is a South Park episode in here somewhere.
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Ok, I didn’t know that. No need to be a dick about it lol.
Thanks cuse. Trying to use some scientific detachment with the fire in between the lines so your point is very valid.
The emails I have sent directly to IHME were fire I assure (called the use of their model politically is akin to murder). To my great shock I’ve gotten no response.
Also I’m walking a bit of a line by going through my LinkedIn account and my business website. So I will probably stick with this tone on that forum for now. Audience is intended for the more science friendly.
I just don’t trust most scientists to handle exponential math. One of the great frustrations of my career is having to explain simple math and stats concepts to people with much more science and engineering formal education than myself.
It’s hard to figure how hard to bang the conclusion. In internal reports inside a company I was always a fan of the sledgehammer to make sure the “only executive summary readers” got the point. Other scientists like to be led to the conclusion like a good mystery book, until the evidence makes you unable to escape the conclusion.
As for the capitals, I couldn’t figure out how to turn them if in that side pain. I’m using the free version of weebly and a true novice.
Gracias on the detailed feedback. I made some unconscious choices about emphasis and placement order that you have done a great job pointing out.
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Nicotine is quite poisonous, but it is somewhat difficult to ingest enough to die. You can’t do it by smoking. If you try swallowing it you’ll bazooka barf. The most dangerous way to use nicotine is, ironically, a patch, where it is possible and not all that uncommon to OD (but rarely fatally).