I mean that seems like what we are likely to see. If NY has 4000-6000 new cases a day that will result in 400-500 deaths on some day in a week or two. As their new cases decline you can basically just multiply the new cases *.08 and then add 10 days and probably get a pretty accurate idea of what the death curve looks like. I’m too dumb and lazy to actually try and build a model this way but that is how I would do it.
Daily routines for suddenly work free?
Mine- wife wfh 9-3.
Tend to wake up around 9. Maybe I Piss and/or eat a quick bite in the 6-7 range.
Take care of dogs come back upstairs and catch up here, Twitter and news. Very little tv news.
Work in model, post here and LinkedIn. Check on finances, UE status, talk to friends.
Midday-lunch. Work in chore list (I asked for this, her verbally reminding me felt like nagging so the written list works better, I do on my time and push to tomorrow unless it’s urgent).
Watch some old tv or stream.
Afternoon. Lay down w dogs and nap and/or listen to podcasts. Hammie rehab.
3- take dogs for walk, maybe run errands
5-I do most of the cooking (grilling)
Watch local news. The she stationary bikes and I J!
Then it’s upstairs for some TV, talk, combined computer work and phones down time. Maybe talk to family.
Rinse repeat. Of course I’d up late or up early probably I will Covid obsess.
TLDR: later middle aged white guy posts boring quarantine routine.
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Just imagining the conversations she has with her husband noted CNN journalist Chris Cumo. His wife says bathe in Chlorox, while Chris makes fun of such things by saying
Take two shots of Windex, swallow this lightbulb, and call me in the morning
https://twitter.com/CuomoPrimeTime/status/1253539566515978243
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I’m curious to know what, if anything, your models would say if you interpreted the NY numbers as the sum of two populations: a low-risk population with a very low R and a smaller population with higher R (essential workers).
Was about to say she could do better, but 3 hours of cooking and wife assigned chores is way better than me.
People who ride the subway especially.
Any hobby you never had time for? Want to explore? A language you want to learn? Ever wanted to learn how to draw? To write? Do handstands? Train your dogs to do WTF THAT’S AMAZING tricks? For a lot of people this will be the first time they’ve had a chance to ask these questions and see where it takes them.
Ten minutes a day will do a lot, but it sounds like you might have time for multiple ten-minute sessions.
My tennis hobby twice whammied with this plus hammie injury.
I have an Italian greyhound and chiahuahua mix. Their “trick” is making treats appear on demand.
I’m not complaining. I enjoy the Covid reading but seem to get outraged eventually.
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Could nicotine stop people catching Covid-19?
Researchers in France are planning to research whether nicotine could stop people from catching Covid-19.
They intend to use nicotine patches in a clinical trial, subject to approval from the health authorities.
In their paper they stress that smoking itself has “severe pathological consequences and remains a serious danger for health”.
A previous study of Covid-19 patients at a large French hospital noted that only 4.4% of its 343 in-patients were daily smokers.
About 25% of the population smokes, according to the country’s 2018 census.
However there are also indications that smokers may suffer more severe symptoms. A small study of 78 patients in China found that 27% of the group whose condition deteriorated after 14 days had a history of smoking, compared with 3% of those who got better or stabilised at the same point in their illness.
The World Health Organization said that in its view cigarette smoking could contribute to more severe symptoms of the disease because it could result in poorer lung functionality.
“The reports of a trial in France to see whether nicotine patches can help prevent or help lessen symptoms of Covid-19 should not put smokers off trying to quit, but encourage them to use nicotine to help them quit and stay quit,” said Deborah Arnott, chief executive of the campaign group ASH (Action on Smoking and Health).
3hrs later…
I hear you.
Well I am curious to see what you manifest. You are so smart and articulate, and you have creative insight into how to synthesize complex information. Very useful in all sorts of fun stuff.
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Subway ridership is down by 92 percent. This means most people are staying at home or finding other ways to get around.
That’s a huge deal because on a normal workday, there are about 4 million people in Manhattan. Only 1.6 million people live in Manhattan, so the other 2.4 million people are combination of (1) people commuting from the outer boroughs, Long Island, Westchester, New Jersey, Connecticut and outlying areas and (2) tourists. The huge drop in commuting has reduced the number of person-to-person contacts and has also reduced how far one person can spread the virus. And the elimination of most tourists activities (Broadway, museums, restaurants, etc.) has lowered the number of tourists and prevented a lot of super-spreader situations.
All of this is doing a lot to slow the spread, but it isn’t sustainable long term. So the challenge is figuring out what restrictions can be lifted and what other mechanisms can be put in place to manage the outbreak over the coming months and years.
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I am looking into going for a masters in public health at age 55. I easily have the time even when I’m consulting.
My concept is to add to my consulting business and getting some local clients like counties and small businesses that need disease response plans. Some diversification of my business and more local clients would be great. When I hit mid 60s might be a nice way to have some income without having to get on a plane so often.
Thanks for the nice words. Means a lot.
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Similar to other fish tank cleaner news, but thought the headline was pretty stark
LOL apparently Trump was looking at this board behind him and his dementia addled brain put 2 and 2 together.
https://twitter.com/DanWilbur/status/1253705434780893184/photo/1
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There’s a timely episode of The Weeds that’s diving into the COVID modeling that you might want to check out. I just started listening.
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UK - 612k tests = 444k people tested
UK - 28k daily tests = 18k people tested
Another point worth bearing in mind for you guys in US considering testing numbers. No. of tests performed does not directly correlate with no. of people tested. Would be nice to get the WH or states to report actual percentage of population tested as opposed to no. of tests conducted
UK not testing general population - only those with symtoms and those with essential worker status (which is why death rate is higher than US)
Testing health workers once? No point in that. Daily / weekly - maybe
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1253688601637986304?s=20
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sigh
Re testing. Is there a shortage of the raw materials to make them? Can’t we just set up massive manufacturing of the testing, or are the raw materials super hard to get and thats the bottleneck preventing our amount of testing?
If we had competent leadership could we open up 100 labs and get to our goal of 60 million tests a day that we need or whatever? From what I’ve read states are having a super hard time getting the raw materials.
“People can be asymptomatic for so long. It’s a huge risk,” Rebecca explained, pointing to the weeks she said she tested positive for COVID-19 after her symptoms subsided. In a subsequent study of the ship’s passengers, researchers found that 18 percent of those who tested positive for the virus on board the Diamond Princess remained symptom-free throughout their infection, echoing a larger body of evidence about so-called “silent spreaders.”