Yeah, just a quick fit to those number looks pretty linear so far. Obv things can change.
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In California GOAT news, the university campus I live on is delivering 4 face masks to every household/apartment. More available by request.
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How can we hit 0 when NY is still having 5k or so new cases a day? I get that is what your model is saying but it does not seem possible based on the number of new cases. That is one of the errors I think I spot in most models. The future deaths are based on the past deaths rather than some type of new cases +lag * mortality rate function.
Short ranges of exp curves can look linear with high R^2. Iâd prefer your extrapolation!
I follow this guy. Easy to understand. A little crude on the pretty side.
Look for the US minus NY line. Still going up. Eventually it will dominate the national math.
Cool cool. We shouldnât be dumping every possible resource into every vaccine possibility.
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What are the numbers on new cases like?
Editing nit - youâre last part about Lester Holt is missing an the opening (. Also I would maybe add the context to that anecdote as I initially read it as you screaming at your TV.
I would add something to explain this sentence : âAlso, I am estimating Rt (effective transmission ratio) by Rd^5.6 with 5.6 days being the average transmission interval (CDC). Rd of 0.97 gives an Rt of 0.84.â I get mathematically what you are doing, but no idea why those two variables are correlated in that way.
The charts are also hard to read and understand. I think after a few minutes I get that the orange line is your prediction and the actual numbers, but itâs not that clear. Also, are the charts dynamic or static in that youâre updating your orange line as you get more data, or are you sticking with your early April estimate and seeing how the actual numbers match up?
The last 3 days of new cases are 6,200, 5,600, 4,100 with the 6,200 data point being yesterday. New cases are declining but wouldnât they need to be near 0 now to have 0 deaths in 2 weeks? With the lag in between testing positive and dying? The number of new cases still appears to be a function of how much they test although the positive rate has been declining as well.
Number of new cases is trending down as well. I wouldnât bet on it being 5k/day 15 days from now.
Right but the deaths in 15 days are more a function of new cases now than new cases in 15 days right?
Thanks. So far the orange has been static. If we open or close more than current I will have to adjust. For the blog post the graphs are static. I will likely update and improve the presentation per suggestions in a few days. I just added the 5 day moving average to the graphs because of how noisy the data is.
I was yelling at my TV. Thatâs the point of the anecdote. How did it come across?
The idea is that when I become old man yelling at clouds my quarantine partners (wife and two dogs) react negatively. Bottom line thatâs my #1 job through this.
Thx, will definitely work to incorporate these suggestions.
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I donât know what to think about this 
As President Donald Trump appeared to question Thursday whether disinfectant could be used to treat coronavirus patients â to the dismay of medical professionals â Cuomo says she adds â½ cup ONLY of Cloroxâ to her bathwater to âcombat the radiation and metals in my system and oxygenate it.â
âWe want to neutralize heavy metals because they slow-up the electromagnetic frequency of our cells, which is our energy field, and we need a good flow of energy,â Cuomo explains.
Dr. Jose Luis Ocampo, a board-certified emergency medicine physician at Kaiser Permanente in Baldwin Park, California, also urges the public to use caution.
âAs a physician, I would never recommend something that was not proven efficacious and safe for patients to use or do,â Ocampo tells USA TODAY. âAs such, I have never recommended Clorox baths as my knowledge of its medicinal use and safety is limited. While bleach baths have been used to treat eczema, for example, it must be done carefully and should always be done in consultation with a physician.â
Looking pretty good. How locked down are things in NYC? Like in reality, not theory.
eh, if we assume .5% of people die, weâd expect 25 deaths with 5k new cases. Considering how much noise there is in all of this, thatâs not too far off.
The mortality rate of confirmed cases is much higher than this right (obviously I know the real mortality rate is closer to what you say probably .5-1%)? In New York it looks like about 8% (21k/260k)?
So 5k new confirmed cases = roughly 400 new deaths in the future.
Lots of rich people are stupid.
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The Italian scientists used standard techniques to collect outdoor air pollution samples at one urban and one industrial site in Bergamo province and identified a gene highly specific to Covid-19 in multiple samples. The detection was confirmed by blind testing at an independent laboratory.
Leonardo Setti at the University of Bologna in Italy, who led the work, said it was important to investigate if the virus could be carried more widely by air pollution.
Previous studies have shown that air pollution particles do harbour microbes and that pollution is likely to have carried the viruses causing bird flu, measles and foot-and-mouth disease over considerable distances.
wut
I havenât looked recently but for NY state I was getting a very tight correlation between t-9 total cases and todayâs total deaths. 9% slope.
100,000 case say on 4/1 would be 9,000 deaths on 4/10 (numbers I just made up for this example, not actuals)
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400 deaths per day means the rate stays constant for the next two weeks. And if itâs lagging the new cases graph, itâs not going to stop going down.