COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

So i can’t model anything but we are up in cases/deaths from last Monday. Definitely seems like its time for hair salons and bowling alleys.

Lol Daily Beast. Skimmed the title and thought it was talking about the psychological toll of having COVID-19 but on closer inspection it’s about being tested for COVID-19.

I’m sure testing isn’t fun but on the scale it’s pretty low and then I come to this paragraph

My journey began more than a month ago, when I hastily packed a bag and fled my one-bedroom apartment in Manhattan for a renovated 19th-century farmhouse roughly three hours north of the city to escape what I rightly believed would become a city-wide health-care crisis.

Oh f*ck off

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MD, CT, and VA arent looking too hot.

So how long until Fox News runs with the “arrogant libs insulting real americans for trying to work” segments

The Cato Institute guys I’ve been following have already been trying the pitch by saying Patton Oswald was insulting all those blue collar workers out of a job when he was making fun of the astroturf protestors so it’s 100% it’s going to be used

Uh so this seems like big news?

A new study by one of China’s top scientists has found the ability of the new coronavirus to mutate has been vastly underestimated and different strains may account for different impacts of the disease in various parts of the world.

Professor Li Lanjuan and her colleagues from Zhejiang University found within a small pool of patients many mutations not previously reported.

These mutations included changes so rare that scientists had never considered they might occur.

They also confirmed for the first time with laboratory evidence that certain mutations could create strains deadlier than others.

“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li and her collaborators wrote in a non-peer reviewed paper released on preprint service medRxiv.org on Sunday.

Li’s team detected more than 30 mutations. Among them 19 mutations - or about 60 per cent - were new.

They found some of these mutations could lead to functional changes in the virus’ spike protein, a unique structure over the viral envelope enabling the coronavirus to bind with human cells.

Computer simulation predicted that these mutations would increase its infectivity. To verify the theory, Li and colleagues infected cells with strains carrying different mutations.

The most aggressive strains could generate 270 times as much viral load as the weakest type. These strains also killed the cells the fastest.

It was an unexpected result from fewer than a dozen patients, “indicating that the true diversity of the viral strains is still largely underappreciated”, Li wrote in the paper.

The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington State, according to their paper.

A separate study had found that New York strains had been imported from Europe. The death rate in New York was similar to that in many European countries, if not worse.

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Is the recorded fatality rate anywhere low? Every place I can see has deaths/cases at more than 1% most significantly higher besides the complete bs numbers like Russia. Even if you count some asymptomatic carriers and multiply cases by 3 most places arent below 1%. Thinking it might range from 1-5% mortality rate actually is bad.

Also again, no antibody tests i know of have this thing at 15% have had it. It is much more likely the variance in outcomes is due to the restrictions/how many cases an area had when they went into lockdown

The mortality rate in NYC for people 75 and older is nearly 1%. That is not the CFR or IRF, it’s the total population fatality rate.

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So fucking true

No I haven’t

Not random

People taking it seriously and shut in like JohnnyTruant won’t be part of that random study

It’ll be people on street corners and grocery stores taking it, which will skew more likely to have had it

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If we can isolate a substantially less deadly strain maybe it can be used for vaccine or even coronavirus parties to get the less deadly version if it gives immunity from the other strains.

Tompa Brady got cited for working out in a closed park in Tampa Bay.

Such a douche bag.

Not sure if my pony lost to a 3 outer, but the WSOP has been postponed.

JFC. If that holds up. Wow. Remember this thing already spreads really well without causing a majority of its to get noticeably sick. And those that do get sick have a long infective period before being impacted to stay home or go to the hospital. So the evolutionary pressure to moderate its sickness and death causing is 0 or very low compared to a short cycle flu strain. If you are only walking around for a day and everyone at least aches so bad that they don’t go out then there is pressure to moderate.

We must hope hope hope that the vaccine targets are not mutating. We may need a multiple antigen strategy to really know this down and keep it down.

Regardless coming out of this there will have to be a long and intense monitoring program to watch for it to mutate and slip past our defenses.

1% of the 75+ year olds in NYC are dead right now??? Is that what you mean???

Yes, that’s what he means.

Your pony lost to an open-ended straight flush draw with two overs and is currently yelping to all his pony buddies about it being the worst beat he’s ever taken.

My favorite game of all time. Done 5+ playthroughs without ever finishing.

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