COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Seems fine. Not many grannies like bowling or lounging at the beach these days so this should not affect GETTING OPEN FOR BUSINESS.

making a random guess but Iā€™d say people like JT are a tiny portion of the population. I think most people are still at least going out for groceries other than people who are really high risk.

Gonna need to the math on that.

Just saw this. Wow just wow but considering the stakes if people with youth and no risk factors want to volunteer they should get a ticker tape parade at the end. Get vaccine and then get intentionally exposed.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/this-usually-unthinkable-idea-could-be-the-key-to-getting-a-covid-19-vaccine-fast/

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My wife talked to a friend tonight who works at the CDC. She opined that GA governorā€™s ā€œre-openingā€ of shit this week will create a ā€œwave of death.ā€

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States opening shit this week and next in the wake of this report is going to get reallllllllll ugly.

for me Riverman has always been the beating heart of so much that I liked about 2p2ā€”that was what I thought a long time ago. But later, when irl stuff swerved for him, to me the online version of Riverman that surfaced on the other side was somehow enhanced, as if Riverman at the crossroads had chosen to eliminate clutter, including even extra words, and ever since has been breathing plain fire.

semi-related, but a few months back he wrote that the crux of white privilege & class privilege was the privilege to fail; to fuck up your life again and again while knowing that if you ever actually reformed, the world was still waiting for you with open arms. Iā€™m guessing that landed with more than a few of us!

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Iā€™m really not liking how we are months into this ordeal and ā€˜end of civilizationā€™ is still on the table.

I was kind of assuming this was going to be done, obviously people will volunteer.

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Oh, Iā€™m not saying his math is right, I have no idea. Iā€™m just saying thatā€™s what he means.

From NYC COVID page

:

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Graph does not include the probable deaths. So multiply all these numbers by 1.5 to get what it likely really looks like based on their own probable death #s.

1000 per 100,000 is 1%. Wow.

feel bad for thinking this bit could swing a tight district or two, donā€™t know about a whole state.
Depends on what percent of voters are old and how much they break Trump.

Wow, I thought all vaccine trials involved intentionally exposing to the virusā€¦

Nope. I think maybe with polio they used mental health patients? No informed consent but even then I donā€™t think they intentionally infected them. Maybe they ā€œletā€ nature take its course. Some shady shit. Remember it wasnā€™t until the 70s they fessed you about Tuskegee.

Would image if would be pretty hard to get people to sign up to be vaccinated for something like Ebola if you had to be intentionally exposed - especially considering that for a real trial, you need a control group who gets the placebo.

Of course then you get into the weird ethical land of potentially paying people to participate in a challenge trial.

Are these people in the trial still quarantiningā€¦ because it seems super random who gets/doesnā€™t get infectedā€¦ like, which people wore an n95 mask the right way or touched their face less ?

re: ebola, yeah, that has a fatality rate that is super highā€¦ but if Corona is only killing ~1 in 1000 + healthy young people ā€“ it doesnā€™t seem like a super duper big deal if they are willing to do it for $$$ or fame.

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I am on my phone now, and so maybe that is why the article isnā€™t giving me a link to the medarxiv article to read. I will try to read it tomorrow, but I would be modestly skeptical, but not highly. If it is true I personally know people working on this who would confirm it.

Surely these idiots calling it a hoax and protesting social distancing measures would take some money to participate in a challenge trial.

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Patient-derived mutations impact pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2

The sudden outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally with more than 1,300,000 patients diagnosed and a death toll of 70,000. Current genomic survey data suggest that single nucleotide variants (SNVs) are abundant. However, no mutation has been directly linked with functional changes in viral pathogenicity. Here we report functional characterizations of 11 patient-derived viral isolates, all of which have at least one mutation. Importantly, these viral isolates show significant variation in cytopathic effects and viral load, up to 270-fold differences, when infecting Vero-E6 cells. We observed intrapersonal variation and 6 different mutations in the spike glycoprotein (S protein), including 2 different SNVs that led to the same missense mutation. Therefore, we provide direct evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity.

Link to full PDF

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