COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

It would probably have a lot to do with accumulated damage from air pollution, but hopefully not and the clearer air lately will make a difference.

I took an empty bus today so it’s been nice knowing you guys. RIP.

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With 670k active cases right now it takes a death rate of 0.5% to stay under 80k and that‘s not even counting future infections. Is there reason to believe the remaining cases will fare that much better than we are currently observing?

I can’t find it right now but there is an article finding lung damage by CT scan in people that had no or mild symptoms.

This thing is one nasty bug. Could have healthcare impacts for decades even if it’s just the survivors of serious cases.

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Sigh. Had grown to like him. Idiot.

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No. Next waves will hit rural areas that will completely run over healthcare capacities.

What’s the relationship between 670k, 0.5%, and 80k?

If you multiply 670k by 0.5% the result is 80k% certainty that I shouldn’t do math in my head. 40k+ current deaths plus 670k times 5% gets you to <80k.

I’m still not sure I follow, but I think 0.5% of 670k is 3350, which is indeed less than 80000.

a lot of those 670k are recovered but not officially counted as recovered

Djokovic being an anti vaxxer was not something I was prepared to confront today

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That‘s the mistake I made. It should be 5% resulting in 33500 future deaths plus ~42k past deaths which gets you close to 80k.

That makes sense and my math was off anyway.

Yeah this pledge that people won’t have to pay for corona virus treatment is going to play out over a long time.

Doc, it was coronavirus that gave me this cancer!"

But there’s other evidence that the IFR is more like 1%, making the actual cases more like 8 million.

Time to cancel NoVaxx Jokovich.

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I would think a downdraft-type poker table could really improve things. The idea is to get negative pressure and downward movement of air at all times. Theoretically, if someone coughs, droplets will move down below mouth level immediately.

Same idea as a vehicle paint booth, which needs clean, hot air to move across car surfaces to ensure paint cures cleanly and evenly. Not hellaciously difficult to construct: build a 24" platform over the entire surface of the poker room, place inlet vents below all tables, duct the air out as exhaust or return air.

We need to understand the role of HVAC and COVID more generally, but that’s universal and has little to do with poker.

More pressingly, Georgia has announced we are OPEN FOR BUSINESS on Friday. Restaurants waiting until Monday. Lord help us.

Dude, we will hit 80k by June

Stop thinking deaths just go away magically. You aren’t Trump

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