COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

you hate to see it

Thereā€™s no new information in this article, just some dipshit politician calling for an SEC investigation into unspecified crimes and a credulous reporter.

So where are these number from vs Covid tracking vs world meter. They all 3 have different totals for day.

This more than world more than covidtrack??

We probably reach one million cases in the US next week:

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So did we just transition to slower exponential growth? Thatā€™s great!

No, it means the growth is logistic, and yes that is welcome news.

https://www.khanacademy.org/science/ap-biology/ecology-ap/population-ecology-ap/v/logistic-growth-versus-exponential-growth

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How could they be frustrated? I thought the Villagers thought the whole thing was an overblown hoax.

Not gonna read that, but I assume that their frustration notwithstanding, they still think Trump and DeSantis are great.

Sumter county has gone up like 30 cases all week, and like one death. jlawok.gif.

Correct, but this assumes that:

A) The numbers are accurate
B) We donā€™t do dumb things that might take us off that path

Iā€™m not confident in either.

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The numbers are definitely wrong, but if theyā€™re systematically wrong, we can still learn things from them about hos the disease is progressing. Itā€™s like sampling a group of people to do opinion polling.

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The SEC part isnā€™t the interesting part, itā€™s the quote from the doctor participating in a study of Remdesivir that includes a control group. While anecdotal, that quote isnā€™t super promising.

Absolutely true, but Iā€™m not confident in this either.

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Is the growth really logistic, or did we just hit testing capacity? Because in red states at least it kind of seems like the latter.

Yes and yes, probably.

If it was really exponential, we be following the orange line, which would mean weā€™d have a billion cases at the end of next week, which obviously isnā€™t possible.

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Yeah, I donā€™t believe those numbers, but Iā€™m thinking if it were truly a bloodbath, the numbers in the lie would be higher.

ā€œObviouslyā€?

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1251631637567361027

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If it turns out that the numbers are waaaaay off and we actually have 10ā€™s of millions of cases right now, then that would suggest that itā€™s much less lethal than we thought.

On a completely unrelated note, did you guys know that toxoplasmosis infects a third of the entire human population? Thatā€™s pretty crazy, thatā€™s like 3 billion people. I just learned about it the other day.

I learned today that 1/4 of the world population has tuberculosis. Thatā€™s insane to me. I thought it was eradicated back with like polio and mumps. 90% that have it arenā€™t aware. But for that 10% that get sick, itā€™s deadly. 1.5 million deaths in 2018.

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My dad caught tuberculosis when I was a kid, he came out okay, mom and I tested negative.

Boy, the tuberculosis wiki page is some nightmare fuel, right? Official WHO global health emergency since 1993. Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis seems like something we should be worried about? I knew TB was still around from personal experience and my morbid interest in these kinds of things, but you could be forgiven for thinking that TB was only a problem back in the cowboy days.

But yeah, a lot of these diseases weā€™ve been sleeping on in the first world have been going buck wild in Asia and Africa. Iā€™ve told you guys about how measles is devastating the Congo and no one is talking about that. At some point we as a species need to get our shit together and realize that we canā€™t just wall ourselves off from these diseases and let the third world fester.

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@BestOf

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