You need to show your math on this one, as my math shows you to be talking out your ass:
Population of NYC ~ 8.4 million
Current official deaths in NYC ~ 7,300
Using just the official deaths, we are already at a .08% fatality rate for all New Yorkers. Actual fatality rate is probably at least 50% higher.
If we use your assumption that 15% of New Yorkers have the virus, current official fatality rate is .58%. And again that is only using the official death rate and if no one else dies.
Good news is it’s clearly slowing in the same way we’ve seen in other countries. Just eyeballing, it looks like under 100,000 deaths, but of course things might change when lockdowns get lifted.
Projecting total number of cases in the US, it looks like about a million, which feels a bit too optimistic. It’s probably too soon to do any real kin do fprojection like this.
Australia has a lot of experience with invasive species. They know springing into action fast is important.
They’re a lot closer to wiping it out entirely than herd immunity. Then maybe mandatory quarantine for all incoming people and aggressive testing and contact tracing to stamp it out quick if it does show up somewhere.
That’s 82500 and they have 6400 official cases.
Btw based on my random sample of being outside and driving through various areas a few times - LA went from no one wearing masks to everyone wearing masks in a week. So much for “America will never be a mask country”.
I like how both of you got the continent wrong. You get a 10/10 for US stereotypes though.
Think like over half the people in the grocery store here in Ohio are wearing masks.
I did see a boomer rip his off the second he got out of Trader Joes (which requires them). He wasn’t having it.
Ooops. No one thinks of Austria here.
Austria has 14k official cases.
Thanks, I hadn’t seen this one. This is actually not inconsistent with the NYC maternity data though. Austria has a slightly larger population than NYC, but NYC has about 20x the number of coronavirus deaths.
Yeah, 14k confirmed cases, the 0.33% estimate would put us at around 30k.
Are they handing them out at the door?
'Tis the season, after all.
Californians are really good at this. I couldnt find any to buy until yesterday and the social pressure to wear one is intense. Got super nasty looks when I was at the grocery store last week. I finally found some - at a convenience store of all places.
Nope. But a bandana or shirt wrapped around your face is good enough.
You’re forgetting that deaths lag infections by like a month.
Sorry to hear bud. I am having a similar situation in WA. 4.5 weeks since my initial claim. Got a letter Saturday saying they need more info from me by Wednesday or they will make a determination (likely against my claim) without additional info.
Of course every time I’ve called (roughly 50 times yesterday and today) I get the message “all circuits are currently busy, please try again later.” I got this same message while beginning to call at 745 this morning even though they dont open til 8, so I’m pretty worried I’m good and well fucked here.
Looks like assuming no setbacks that the Czech government is planning on going back to normal by mid-June.
They’re rolling out the openings of things in 5 stages. Sort of baby steps along the way. They’re still gonna be enforcing social distancing and mask wearing throughout.
Secondary schools for graduating students open May 11th. I only teach one graduating class. So I’m hoping that I’ll be able to convince the school to let me teach them online. All students will be able to return for their final exam (and possibly even attend classes) during June. Hopefully, teachers get a say in whether to stick with online courses or go brick and mortar because there’s no way I’m going to require students to come into class during a pandemic.
Looks like deaths are ~two weeks behind cases for the US.