Even if this fatality rate is true, that’s not the only metric to measure.
I haven’t heard reports that COVID-19 is a pleasant experience for those that don’t die.
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Influenza is also quite unpleasant. Fatalities and long term disability (lung scarring happens in severe cases from what I understand) are the only metrics that should be used for decision making imo.
Won’t know enough about long term issues until the long term.
Hospitalization and icu rate is more important than mortality. Once those resources are overwhelmed mortality rate goes up.
But basically, yeah, if 99.9% of us could get better at home then we shouldn’t be in quarantine. Doesn’t look like anybody really thinks that’s the case.
I wonder if the NYC pregnancy admission stats speak to a problem in the accuracy of nasal swab testing in non-hospital settings. This would indicate lots of false negatives at field testing centers or doctor’s offices for a couple possible reasons: the staff there might be less accustomed to these tests and the patient discomfort of a nasal swab test, and the people there might be less ill so an incomplete swab will be less likely to test positive.
Have any comparative studies been done between throat swabs and nasal swabs? Determining the accuracy of each seems like it’s of critical importance.
PA has had some progress. Still says not to file but “instructions on how to apply will be posted shortly”.
Is whataboutism simply a reflex?
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Hasn’t there already been massive asymptomatic testing around the world that has shown people largely havent had it? I’m gonna go with that over one tiny biased sample to more accurately reflect reality every time.
So far the 1.3 acres site is reporting negative 9 deaths in the USA for today. With the power of exponential growth, everyone should be resurrected in a few weeks.
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Had a similar mask and a similar experience yesterday. I’ve heard putting a folded paper towel over your nose and mouth(and under the cloth) could increase your protection. It certainly does seem a little more dense and makes breathing a little trickier.
Here is my overly over-simplified graphic model.
Others are going a huge first principles route (link up thread somewhere). My wife will be unhappy if I go down that obsession with my time.
Mathematically what is happening is a series of different effective “Rt”s. Essentially effective number of transmissions. Using this value requires a lot of assumptions of mean transmission time interval, etc.
However we have readily observable data for exponential growth. These can be converted into simple daily multipliers that I’m calling Rd.
The key thing is that Rd changes happen at some interval after social behaviors change. I simply looked at the observed exponents and then adjusted dates to manage the curve to date.
I used
1.3 for uncontrolled growth
1.1 for initial social distancing (SD)
1.0 for more restrictive SD
I am assuming we can get to a number below 1.0
I SWAG’d 0.97 (roughly 20% drop per week)
Of course no relaxation in SD is assumed.
I assume that last weeks positives turned into 7% deaths this week.
I just totaled the past 14 days for active cases.
I ignored lags in testing and testing impacts. Just fitting to the existing data as it’s collated at covidtracking. We can assume both positives and deaths are low vs actual.
This is national. I may do NY.
I of course had this dump out of my head at 2am. I will tinker more when the mood strikes.
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the reinfection theory should be easy to test, just stick a recovered person in a room with a positive person and see what happens. recovered doctors/nurses would be the easiest way to test this.
It’s a good idea, I think the difference between R values is much bigger. Like 2-5 for doing nothing.
https://twitter.com/RobertKlemko/status/1249716012599083010?s=20
Silver linings and all that
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This is exactly what the Czech Republic is doing as well.
Hopefully they pick up the pace on testing because they need it.
Walmart trip report: same Walmart as 2 weeks ago and they have improved the shopping experience. Only one entrance is open with a person at the door counting how many people go in and limiting when necessary. The store was pretty empty and had everything in stock except for hand sanitizer. Probably 80-90% of the people in there had a mask on which was pretty great
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2016: Trump says he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue
2020: Trump kills thousands of people on Fifth Avenue
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Are we ready for a dedicated economic collapse thread yet?
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Yes please
Sadly barnyard shootings are up. You pony died in one.
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