at the very least just let them go bankrupt. Every airline besides I think Southwest has gone bankrupt before and operated in bankruptcy. Fuck em.
2 Likes
1 Like
Meh, this seems overly sensational. There are plenty of reasons he could have had to leave that are legitimate.
Forget herd immunity. If something close to 15% of New Yorkers already have it then the infection fatality rate is way below 1%. Like around 0.1%. You can just have old people and diabetics stay home and let everyone else go about their business.
First run with the neck gaiter/face cover.
It was not as uncomfortable as I imagined it would be. Barely any breathing restriction, which of course means it isn’t filtering anything. It might make the outbreath more diffuse, but I feel like that might be bad thing if it’s turning larger droplets into smaller ones. It’s pretty easy to adjust, so I could have it on my chin unless/until I see a person and then I cover up until I’m past them (at most I see two or three people while running, and often see zero). The biggest downside is that even on a very short, easy test run it got pretty damp pretty quickly. And with my allergies my nose tends to run in the AM - not that bad this morning but if it was really going it would’ve been nasty. So this thing definitely needs to be washed between every use, which is a PITA. I made my kids some masks out of old tech shirts I have, I might try to fashion a few of those for myself so I can have a rotation.
2 Likes
Press and Unstuck Politics.
Even if this fatality rate is true, that’s not the only metric to measure.
I haven’t heard reports that COVID-19 is a pleasant experience for those that don’t die.
1 Like
Influenza is also quite unpleasant. Fatalities and long term disability (lung scarring happens in severe cases from what I understand) are the only metrics that should be used for decision making imo.
Won’t know enough about long term issues until the long term.
Hospitalization and icu rate is more important than mortality. Once those resources are overwhelmed mortality rate goes up.
But basically, yeah, if 99.9% of us could get better at home then we shouldn’t be in quarantine. Doesn’t look like anybody really thinks that’s the case.
I wonder if the NYC pregnancy admission stats speak to a problem in the accuracy of nasal swab testing in non-hospital settings. This would indicate lots of false negatives at field testing centers or doctor’s offices for a couple possible reasons: the staff there might be less accustomed to these tests and the patient discomfort of a nasal swab test, and the people there might be less ill so an incomplete swab will be less likely to test positive.
Have any comparative studies been done between throat swabs and nasal swabs? Determining the accuracy of each seems like it’s of critical importance.
PA has had some progress. Still says not to file but “instructions on how to apply will be posted shortly”.
Is whataboutism simply a reflex?
4 Likes
Hasn’t there already been massive asymptomatic testing around the world that has shown people largely havent had it? I’m gonna go with that over one tiny biased sample to more accurately reflect reality every time.
So far the 1.3 acres site is reporting negative 9 deaths in the USA for today. With the power of exponential growth, everyone should be resurrected in a few weeks.
17 Likes
Had a similar mask and a similar experience yesterday. I’ve heard putting a folded paper towel over your nose and mouth(and under the cloth) could increase your protection. It certainly does seem a little more dense and makes breathing a little trickier.
Here is my overly over-simplified graphic model.
Others are going a huge first principles route (link up thread somewhere). My wife will be unhappy if I go down that obsession with my time.
Mathematically what is happening is a series of different effective “Rt”s. Essentially effective number of transmissions. Using this value requires a lot of assumptions of mean transmission time interval, etc.
However we have readily observable data for exponential growth. These can be converted into simple daily multipliers that I’m calling Rd.
The key thing is that Rd changes happen at some interval after social behaviors change. I simply looked at the observed exponents and then adjusted dates to manage the curve to date.
I used
1.3 for uncontrolled growth
1.1 for initial social distancing (SD)
1.0 for more restrictive SD
I am assuming we can get to a number below 1.0
I SWAG’d 0.97 (roughly 20% drop per week)
Of course no relaxation in SD is assumed.
I assume that last weeks positives turned into 7% deaths this week.
I just totaled the past 14 days for active cases.
I ignored lags in testing and testing impacts. Just fitting to the existing data as it’s collated at covidtracking. We can assume both positives and deaths are low vs actual.
This is national. I may do NY.
I of course had this dump out of my head at 2am. I will tinker more when the mood strikes.
5 Likes
the reinfection theory should be easy to test, just stick a recovered person in a room with a positive person and see what happens. recovered doctors/nurses would be the easiest way to test this.
It’s a good idea, I think the difference between R values is much bigger. Like 2-5 for doing nothing.