The first is the virus, the second is the illness.
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^^^
pony almost got infected
The social condition is ATU-20c.
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People don’t fear the coronavirus because it might kill 20k people. It is feared because it has the potential to kill millions, depending on how things that are still sort of unknown play out.
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I mean, the best rough guess for how this corona virus will progress is to look at other corona viruses like SARS and MERS. Ofc it seems what we have here is much more infectious than those.
Continued flu whataboutism is irritating. Let me know when the flu has a 2 percent mortality rate.
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“This virus has many routes of transmission, which can partially explain” its rapid spread, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report Saturday.
Pick a lane and stay in it Corona.
Thirteen of the infections were diagnosed in travelers who fell ill after returning from overseas, and 21 in people “repatriated” by the State Department.
More infections are expected among the people who were passengers aboard the Diamond Princess cruise and are currently in quarantine, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at a news briefing.
Ten other passengers from the Diamond Princess tested positive in Japan, but are not being counted among the infected yet, because the tests have not been confirmed by the C.D.C. However, they will likely be added to the case count, Dr. Messonnier said.
Several Americans remain critically ill with the infection in Japanese hospitals. They were among the passengers aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship
…
As of Friday, the coronavirus has infected 75,000 people, the vast majority in mainland China, and has killed 2,236.
I also read something interesting on another forum today about why this cannot be compared to the flu. The numbers of critically ill patients from the flu is very small - likely less than 1% from most outbreaks and probably substantially less than that. However, COVID-19 apparently has about 10% of patients becoming critically ill and requiring hospitalization to recover. (That 10% figure wasn’t sourced or I would share it.)
Assuming the 10% number is accurate, that goes a long way toward explaining why this has overwhelmed hospitals at ground zero, and probably why the death rate is so much higher in the hard hit areas, as patients cannot receive the treatment that they need due to capacity issues.
I can’t imagine many (if any) countries have the capacity to properly handle the number of patients that will require treatment if this thing spreads globally at the rate it currently seems capable of.
Mortality rate alone isn’t the whole story, tho. Influenza has a much lower rate but it kills way more people because it’s much more infectious and millions get it every year. If you could chose between eliminating influenza and corona viruses, you should pick influenza ainec.
I wouldn’t think that is true IF this particular coronavirus spreads as easily as the flu.
This is what I meant about people using weird heuristics instead of numbers and projections.
If it is much more infectious than SARS there is absolutely no way to think it will play out the same.
This is like going. Well, I got shot by a slingshot wielded by a five year old and I was okay, so i guess being hit in the face by a cannon ball should be okay too.
And this is what I mean about people not understanding exponential curves.
How many people each kills today is not really relevent to a comparison. It’s all about the shape of the curves and how many they are going to kill over the next few years. And on that, the jury is very much still out.
4 deaths in Iran now with only 18 cases of infection identified. Yeah that doesn’t add up. Lebanon also reported it’s first case which was a traveler from Iran.
Finally starting to have an impact on the market, wonder if this causes a much overdue correction or we actually crash
Gold just hit like a 10 year high or something too
The question is whether it becomes endemic like the flu or whether if flares up and goes away like other corona viruses. I’d bet on the latter, but we’ll see.
Didn’t the others “go away” because they were not super contagious, and so the quarantines worked? (Honest question, I have no idea but that is kind of my assumption.)
I have no idea. I assume it’s super complicated and there are lots of reasons these things play out the way they do.
This virus is comparably infectious to SARS (R0 estimates are lower if anything). It looks likely that control measures are less effective, though. SARS R0 dropped to 0.4 with the introduction of controls. One reason for this might be that people are sometimes infectious during the incubation period, another might be that it’s now thought that (unlike SARS) the virus may be able to use a fecal transmission vector.
Both sides are irritating as we have no clue about the actual mortality rate either. In the same timeframe flu killed more people in China than Coronavirus and even that stat is meaningless for now.
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