I think if they let up their vigilence then it starts right back up.
Exactly why I’m stumped when thinking about 40-70% of Americans getting infected over 12-18 months.
Well the good news is S. Korea hasn’t had to shut all their bars and restaurants. Goddammit if we were just testing 20k ppl per day this could be so much better here.
Well as of this moment I don’t think we’re doing a whole lot to stop the spread other than handwashing and being careful - which I’m sure is slowing it. But if bars and restaurants are still open and people are still having large gatherings - no way it’s slowed.
Maybe once you ban all those things the track to 40-70% stops, but not until then. And if you lift them, the track starts right up again.
Meanwhile:
Yup. CR started that today as well.
Good to see that testing numbers are going up day by day. Means that the country hasn’t hit their capacity on tests per day yet. Peformed 741 coronavirus tests today, over 200 more tests than yesterday.
we are testing this hypothesis right now. Summer rolling along as hot as ever in Australia, South America, and Africa. Hell its always summer in Singapore and other countries close to the equator. Australia has shown signs of community spread, we will know long before summer hits here in the United States if this thing is a seasonal virus.
From the charts and graphs I’ve seen the virus will most likely last longer timewise if everyone isolated so there is a downside to the current plan (the upside is obvious). On top of that most people can’t go very long without working. Some people were arguing some schools shouldn’t be closed and they had a some merit to the argument. I mean are people really just gonna tolerate isolation for possibly months and months and maybe longer (spanish flu was what a year and a half)? I dunno.
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also
What I mean about being stumped about the 40-70% is that that number assumes the US practicing social distancing. And from what we know now it’s pretty unlikely that even 10% of Lombardy is infected, and their health system is getting absolutely destroyed.
Humidity could be a big factor as well.
I had a feeling some other Euro countries were going to announce major stuff this weekend.
My o2 reader came in. I’m at 99. I assume that’s healthy?
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I think it assumes you can ultimately do nothing to stop the normal course of spread.
However it’s clearly possible if you hardcore lock down (one person per household gets to shop for groceries once a week) the whole country for a year and a half while you wait for the vaccine which hopefully works - based on China.
The question is can we do that and do we want to do that? If we do partial measures like we’re doing now - does it even slow the spread that much or just delay the inevitable by a few months?
A giant chunk of the Korean data (like 200,000 iirc) is that cult they tested, and they all skew young.
I would love to see that comparison with only the random sampling that Korea did included.
Ok nevermind, need to remove the cult.
Think that’s the best we got aorn.
If you didn’t read the Spain article, they got 2000 new cases in a day. They’re in trouble.
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Don’t know if you’re healthy but your O2 saturation is great.
interesting thread. Maybe I’ll do this.
https://twitter.com/cliotropic/status/1238241708195958785?s=20
who am I kidding, It would last 3 days and then I’d “forget”, just like every other time in my life I’ve tried to journal.
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