My view of the end of society still includes cops thumping heads and collecting checks.
Or at least test randomly selected populations so that good estimates can be inferred.
“Not noticing” is hard to pin down. Like, I have a ridiculously strong immune system and never “get sick” but I definitely notice subtle changes whereas others with similar immune system strength don’t. We’re all super online here and on the ball but it took major news outlets over a month just to start calling “a novel coronavirus” and not “The Coronavirus” so you can imagine a normal person wouldn’t be up to speed. They might’ve had a short spell of “under the weather” and then went back to normal.
I saw a dr remark that mild = nothing to anything short of a hospital bed, maybe even short of a ventilator.
As far as transmission, the RO is something over 2 currently. That factors in people that don’t spread it and people that spread it to 50 others (or some large number).
If you isolate and you are non infectious it changes the math very slightly to the good- you can catch it. However if you are unknowingly infectious you really can move the math in the bad direction if you spread it much more.
The average case spreads to 2.x cases, but the frequency distribution is heavily weighted to multi spreaders when their is no social distancing. Transmitters our amongst lots of non infected people.
It’s somewhat analogous to my kids homework. If they do a half and get a 70-75, they can recover mathematically. Toss in a 0 from not even doing the work and it takes 3x100 to get the average up to 75.
*analogy purposes only, these descriptions are meant as conceptual understanding of the math, not the specific details. I really need to bone up to describe the real math.
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Suzzer touched on this, but they’re estimating that 40-70% of the population gets COVID-19. The current numbers being put out by countries are the people who tested positive for COVID-19.
In reality maybe 20-25% of the people who have it are likely to get tested for it assuming they required hospital treatment or showed severe symptoms. So they’re probably at 5% overall, but it’s mostly concentrated in one area as jalfrezi said, so it’s way worse there.
Most likely, yes. Especially cause we’re probably more concentrated in areas with cases (the coasts), a lot of us spend time in casinos, and we’re probably mostly 25-45 - so more likely to get a mild case that doesn’t require treatment.
I’ve had a cough for two weeks, I had a mild fever a couple times (maybe 1 degree higher than I usually run), and my mucus was oddly thick and sticky and very difficult to clear out of my throat or to get out when I blew my nose for 4-5 days. I haven’t experienced that before, even as drinking 130+ ounces of fluids a day, it is part of the reason for elevated concern - but nothing has moved down too severely into my chest, and the coughs are productive (slightly).
It’s very possible that I had it, my immune system kicked its ass, my mild asthma never mattered, and I’m freaking out over something I’m immune to already. Kinda hilarious possibility, but we’ll never know.
It’s a shame cause if I knew I had temporary immunity I’d be out doing shit for people buying groceries and stuff.
Aw sheeit you’re right, and that’s just what we were talking about.
One man’s society ending is another man’s glorious beginning.
We are making one last out to dinner hurrah. We were supposed to go with friends from a plan made a month ago, but was decided a group of six was not a good idea. So just us.
So taking a calculated risk for sake of mental health.
Honestly having trouble really getting through to her. We go out in public (went for a long drive) and stopped at a rural convenience store.
I used my shirt sleeves to grab stuff. When I got home it went straight in the laundry. She doesn’t understand. She clearly doesn’t see why I want her to wear gloves on errands.
She says she trusts my science and math but I don’t think she has nearly internalized it yet. Gonna take people dying like flies like italy I guess.
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Well lets say 5% of the cases make it to serious/critical or death. So in Italy that’s something like 3000 but it doesn’t say how many recovered from serious/critical so let’s guess 500. So bout 3500, which is 5% of 70,000. Or less than 1% of Lombardy’s 10 million. Jesus fuck.
Now maybe only 1% make it to serious/critical/death. In that case 350,000 people were infected at some point - which is about 3.3% of Lombardy’s pop. Still fuck.
Adding in lag time and every conceivable fudge factor maybe somehow 10% of Lombardy’s pop has had it. But maybe in some parts of Lombardy it’s more.
And also there’s the fact you can definitely get it again - although it’s not clear if it’s less likely.
Jesus dude you know that it can’t enter your body through your hands right? Just wash them after you’re in public
Mild basically ranges from no symptoms at all to regular common cold type symptoms to flu or severe flu symptoms to walking pneumonia.
My understanding is that in the context of studies on COVID-19, mild means “You don’t need to go to the hospital and you aren’t going to die.”
Actually, it depends on some variables that I’m not 100% sure of. Like 15% need hospitalization, but is that 15% of positive tests so far in the world? If so, then you’ve got a lot of variance because like South Korea tested a ton, so what was their hospitalization rate? What is Italy’s? China?
That’s an interesting way to get a meaningful way to compare across different countries. But let’s just play with the numbers.
Official infected is 22K. If 80% have minor symptoms and never get tested, that means maybe 110K people have had it in Italy. About 10M people live in Lombardy. So that’d still be like 1% of that region. I know they’ve also been hospitalizing people for it without testing, and I don’t know if those count in the numbers - like when people are coming in with a fever of 102, severe breathing problems, and their symptoms have matched and there are no test kits, they’re just getting treated.
So after crunching some numbers I’ve determined it’s impossible to figure out. Maybe we’re going to be lucky and more cases are minor than we think.
I agree, and I’m starting to actual feel angry at people for going out. Two of my friends in other cities who I talk to a lot have been kinda “Yeah, okay dude, whatever,” about it… One is out at the bars right now and it just makes me mad at this point. As a society the more seriously people take it, the less severe it’ll be, the sooner it’ll be over, and the more likely they are to be able to make fun of us for 20 years for overreacting.
Right - I think the only way you can know is to try to look at the % that wind up at a hospital, weighted for age. Then you have to repeatedly random sample everyone in some region for maybe a year. Compare to the sick from that region and you have your sick vs. total exposed metric (again weighted for age) - which you could then apply to # sick anywhere to try to get an idea of herd immunity.
But it will probably never happen and again assumes immunity is strong once you get it.
There is no math that does not=fuck unless a society is hyper aggressive like some of the Asian countries. That nyt graph says it all. Just like your 401k.
Save 25k by 25 and its 250k By 65
Save 25k by 45 and its 75k
(1.06)
Only the effin constant here is 20-30% per day, not 6% a year and it’s dead people not dollars on the other axis.
Probably a small sample size from my end, and I’ll take your word for it.
MM MD
I’ve had similar symptoms over the last 6 weeks. It started with getting hit with a 10 minute wave of nausea that came out of nowhere and then went away almost as fast, but I was extra tired for a few days. But I’ve had very little coughing, more just a tight chest and in infrequent productive cough. I keep thinking it’s gone and then it comes back, but it’s minor. Oh and I work right in the same area as Biogen (blocks away). But I just assumed that it was some kind of other minor cold type thing, and still think that is by far the most likely explanation.
And even the hyper aggressive countries are still vulnerable until a vaccine comes out right?
I’m 100% convinced this thing doesn’t do well in a hot humid climate. I don’t care if scientists aren’t sure. I’m going with it. So we might get a summer break and the same old bullshit when it comes roaring back in winter.
Dave- yes Jarred got tested in Mississippi . We stopped the truck at a walk in clinic. He had fever 102, bad head and chest congestion , sore throat and a raging sinus headache. We thought he might have gotten a sinus infection from his c-pap because he used tap water 2 days on the road- still might be a bad sinus infection but the clinic wanted to rule out corona due to heavy chest / congested breathing . I had low grade fever, mild sore throat, mild sinus congestion - I felt like I was fighting getting sick. There was also nausea involved for Jarred pretty bad. I only had mild nausea the night of the low grade fever. We find out today test results. As we were driving out of WA we stopped at a Wendy’s and I heard the manager say he had 4 employees call out that day. If we did get it I’m thinking it’s from Washington Wendy’s off Highway. I’ll keep you guys updated. I’ve never seen Jarred this sick before.
From my friend who’s literally moving across the country from Vancouver, WA to Atlanta right now. Ok definitely no more Wendy’s for me.
So it sounds like the Covid bill that passed the House has a year of two weeks paid sick leave for workers, while the Dems wanted it permanent, and Republicans objected. I can understand that time is of the essence, and a decent bill now is way better than a better bill after a week’s fight, but if Pelosi has half a sense there should be a vote on just making that provision permanent right after. Make the GOP ghouls go on the record voting against it in the middle of the crisis. It’s not like she has anything better to do.
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I figure I’m likely going to the DMV soon because the option of waiting seems worse.
It’s a start.