There’s way more than that infected. A sizable % of them probably already had it without noticing.
I’d bet somebody on this forum already had it.
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My wife has to go to the DMV this week. Good god. Can’t really nix the trip in case society ends and we need to drive into the sunset.
I thought I was going to have to go to as my DL expires in a few days. But good news - that was my old DL and I found my new one. Whew.
Shit I use way more than that
Yes.
That’s why people had to be scared into doing the right thing.
for the peeps or poops?
I keep reading different things about the 80% of cases are mild, including hearing that “mild” cases are still like the flu and maybe even up to walking pneumonia. Is it actually true that people can have it without noticing? One of the reports from either China or Korea said that most asymptomatic people that tested positive eventually showed symptoms.
1% of Italian population is 600,000. Official number of infected is like 22,000 right now. I realize the official number is way off, but by that much? My point is that if 40-70% of all Americans are going to get infected over only 12-18 months, the peak will be sustained and insane and make Italy look like a walk in the park. (Unless the reported numbers are so far off in Italy as to be completely useless.)
Just SWAG - 50% infection rate with 10% of infected people in the hospital for an average of 5 days spread out over 12 months requires 220000 hospital beds dedicated to COVID. If you don’t flatten that out, you need a lot more hospital beds.
They could be resorting to qRTpcr because their regular pcr machines are full and backlogged for days. If they’re doing a more expensive test than they need to just to scam they’re scumbags but idk I doubt it. There’s ridiculous demand rn, this is probably just them hitting the afterburners.
Or they developed some in house technique that lets them do tons of assays at once in a qrtpcr, idk maybe.
Hmm actually now that I think about it maybe they could continuously run qrtpcr with samples injected like a set time apart. Maybe that might work kinda, idk
I think it’s virtually impossible that it’s as contagious as it seems to be, there’s as little testing as we know is the case, and that there aren’t a huge number of people who have it and have already had it and gotten over. I wouldn’t be surprised if my daughter and her BF had it. They were both really sick in like Feb, had difficulty breathing (we went to the ER and they gave her antibiotics which did nothing), and he was stuck at our house for 3 days (when we didn’t really know him) because he was too sick to drive back up to the Bay Area. This was all before COVID was on my radar as a possibility.
If it wasn’t clear from my original comment, panicking over their own health when they’re at the lowest risk.
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I think the testing in Korea may disprove your theory? If your theory had merit, I think Korea would have found a lot more infected people in the random population testing that they did. (Unless a lot of infected people had already recovered and they are not testing for antibodies.) Somebody a lot smarter than me could probably take the data from Korea and come up with some good estimates for the likely number infected in Italy now.
As far as how infectious this is, there is an example from China where one person on a bus infected several other people up to 6 seat rows away, without coughing or sneezing or touching anything in common. (They had the entire 4 hour bus trip recorded, which is pretty scary in it’s own way.) Maybe that is just an example of a super spreader though, but it sure seems hella infectious to me.
If society ends you don’t need a license.
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It’s not total population that matters. It really only hit Lombardy hard before they shut down the whole country. It’s population of Lombardy that matters.
I agree with you. I would like to be constantly testing everyone in the US (assuming positive test almost always = contagious and negative test = not contagious at the moment - otherwise it becomes a lot less useful) and see where that leads us. It’s ludicrous to me to think we wouldn’t be much much better off.
That linked in article is back. Dumbass linkedin changed the URL and google hasn’t figured it out.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-convening-experts-march-10th-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-
Agreed, but how many do we think are infected in Lombardy? What percent? And then think about 40-70% of US population being infected over 12-18 months WITH social distancing in place. That’s what has me stumped, because I doubt even 10% of the population in Lombardy is infected right now. (Otherwise I think Korean data would look a lot different.) Fuck I wish I paid more attention to math and could make more sense of the data.
I think you’re on the more waaf end of things than I am, but your posts are contentful and worth reading. You can’t please everyone and this place devolves into a circle jerk on occasion.
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The whole team of a German soccer club is quarantined because two of the players have been diagnosed as infected. On of them has had it for a week now and both of them are completely symptom-free and taking part in the teams at-home-fitness program.
There is obviously going to be some selection bias in professional athletes, but this still tells me there will be a lot of undiscovered cases if you don‘t test everyone.
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