Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[anon38180840]

@cassette

-.6 mortality is the ceiling (see south Korea)

This is a ridiculous take. .6% mortality is achievable with extensive testing and a non-stressed first world caliber medical system. That’s the only conclusion that we can definitively make right now. Meanwhile, it looks like over-stressed medical systems see a death rate of at least 3-4%. Italy is at 6.6% right now. I can’t find the perfect numbers, but Hubei Deaths / Hubei Deaths & Recoverys gives you 5.7%. Iran is at 4.2% and I think we all know they’re underreporting deaths drastically.

What about first world countries that aren’t testing as widely as South Korea, but aren’t yet overloaded? France 2.1%, Spain 2.4%, US 2.4%. Germany is exceptionally low at .1%, that bears watching over the coming days as that sample size grows.

Now, it’s impossible to say exactly what the breakdown is between more testing = a more accurate MEASURED overall mortality rate and more testing = reducing the ACTUAL overall morality rate by slowing the spread and starting treatments earlier.

I think it’s more reasonable to say .6% mortality is the floor than it’s the ceiling, and numerous places around the world will have over-stressed medical systems and death rates that are far higher.

@cassette

-self-isolating is rational for olds and sicks, but not the rest of us

Mid to long term, that’s probably true. In the short-term the US needs people to self-isolate to flatten our curve and save lives. Once the curve is flat, it’ll be appropriate to figure out who needs to still stay pretty isolated and who does not.

@cassette

-except under exceptional circumstances, this thing lives for a a few minutes or a few hours on objects (no uv lights needed for mail in ballots or Amazon packages)

Even if this is true, and I’m not saying it is, we know it can live longer and we should have people taking precautions accordingly.

@cassette

-completely fine to go to coffee shops and whatnot. Anywhere that you can put 6 feet between you and someone is is OK for the most part. You just really don’t want to get sneezed or coughed on

If I was healthy, no risk factors, under 40, I wouldn’t mind going to an open-air cafe with at least 6 feet between customers, or a restaurant with good ventilation and that kind of spacing… But I’m not real interested in touching things people have touched who could be carrying it, or eating food others have prepared.

@cassette

Perhaps worrying for other reasons, he argued that what we’re doing now (shutting everything down) is much worse than the disease itself. He takes the @microbet line that many more will die from the economic impacts of such shutdowns than would have happened otherwise.

I think we need to be mindful to lift some of these things once we flatten the curve, but not before that. There comes a time when there are diminishing returns on the lockdown saving lives from COVID-19 and increasing harm done to people due to the economic impact. Figuring out that intersection and getting that decision right is pretty key.

@cassette

Along this line, he says we are in the mitigation phase, not the containment phase, so government stimulus should be going to hospital supplies, beds and whatnot and not UBI to keep everyone home. The latter is less effective at this stage of the game.

This would be true if we mitigated it well from the start. If we had done 1.5 million tests by now, all the hospitals were ready with expanded capacity and expanded ICU’s and extra respirators, etc, I’d be inclined to agree. We missed that opportunity, so now the purpose of the getting people to stay home is to slam the brakes on for a couple weeks and try to flatten the curve as sharply as possible.

@JohnnyTruant

I was told it was an overreaction to keep my kids home. Now everyone’s kids are home. I was told it was over reaction to demand to work from home. Now almost everyone is mandated to do so

Not all of us told you these were overreactions, FWIW.

@JohnnyTruant

And it’s not so much here, it is the fucking tedium of watching all the smirks turn to realization.

I’ve had three conversations today where I had to teach friends who hadn’t been paying attention or who even made fun of me for overreacting everything I could about COVID-19, what’s going to happen, the range of possibilities, and what they need to do… and while of course I’m going to do it for them because they’re my friends and I care about them, it’s definitely annoying to have to do this 3x today when I did it 3x two weeks ago and they ignored it and it was in one ear and out the other.

Now in two weeks when they’re apoplectic over the body count and I’m dealing with it better because I cried about it today, they’re going to be like WTF is wrong with you, why aren’t you upset? This has played out a few times in the Trump era for me with stuff. It’s always the same, it’s like, hey, I was doing what you’re doing now two weeks ago.

[suzzer99]

Boomer timeline. She was posting a lot of stuff like that March 5th thing. Now I guess her church got it. Can’t make this shit up.

[suzzer99]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/12/coronavirus-bodies-italy-quarantine/

If this happens in the US - you can bet they’re going to do everything they can to not count it towards the official death count. Then Trump can just scream fake news at the real estimated death count.

[iron81]

I guess the key will be whether county coroners will put COVID on the death certificates with no test.

[suzzer99]

Which they won’t. Old people die all the time with no cause of death.

[6ix]

@Nicholasp27

Had my opponent on Sunday say he’s not shaking hands right now due to Corona; he was prolly in his 60s.

But of course he touched the ball I touched 200+ times during the match.

Word-for-word this will be humanity’s epitaph.

[6ix]

Relax though, we’re not going anywhere. In terms of being a hardy virus, covid ain’t got nothing on us.

[iron81]

My only experience with a mass casualty event locally was a heat wave that killed 800. The coroner here decided that if the elderly person’s body or apartment had a high enough temperature, heat would be listed as a secondary cause of death. My point is that the standard of proof isn’t super high.

[suzzer99]

It is when the administration is putting massive pressure from the top to keep the death count low - like Iran is doing.

[iron81]

Trump has zero ability to put pressure on elected coroners unless they are Trumpists.

[anon38180840]

@m_reed05

I feel like my only options are to fly there and drive them back

This gives you a significant risk of catching it on the plane and then giving it to them in the car.

@m_reed05

I think a day is too valuable to wait at this point.

Depends - are they able to isolate by themselves for a day while waiting? Or are you just worried about lockdowns blocking you where you are?

@m_reed05

Cliffs: I’m probably driving 17 hours tomorrow, sleeping, turning around, and driving 17 hours home.

If you do this and you run out of people to talk to on the phone to stay awake, DM me tomorrow and you can put me down for a half hour at some point, I’ll shoot you my number. I know how brutal long drives like that can be, and I know how hard it is to stay awake - I’ve had a couple close calls. Be safe!

FWIW in my experience, there’s like a massive difference in driving 12 hours in a day and 16+. It’s way bigger than the difference in 8 to 12, somewhere in there is the tipping point where you’re just too fatigued. I’m not necessarily saying don’t do it, I’m saying be prepared for what you’re about to do if you do it.

@JohnnyTruant

Like if they tested any of the risky people I’m taking about and it turned out I was exposed and I already had a mild case, I’d snap join the front lines wherever I could after the waiting period. But as it stands even health care workers with probable cases will have to wonder if they are still at risk of getting it for the first time.

Yup this is a terrible cost to us for it. So many people would be willing to help out in a lot of ways if they knew they were already out of the woods with some immunity.

@ChrisV

I assume everyone realised that that 100,000 cases in Ohio thing was probably bullshit, but in case you didn’t:

Sounds like someone didn’t understand that 1% of the population having it didn’t mean 1% of the state, it meant 1% of the community that had the two positive tests. Like, does she think if California had two positives they’d have 1% with it statewide, but so would Delaware? With no regard for population distribution?

@suzzer99

That one study said it could live for a day on cardboard.

So if we’re talking about mailing a ballot in, you touch the ballot and put your germs on it, you put it in an envelope and put your germs on that, then mail it. By the time it gets to the destination a couple days later, all your germs are dead. At this point the inside of the mail is safe and the outside would have to pick it up from a postal worker or from touching a surface that had it.

@Kep

It takes more than a week for me to go through 1 roll. 50 rolls might be a year supply for one person.

I think I’m more like 2.5 days per roll. But, like I said, I blow my nose with TP a lot.

[anon38180840]

First, some good news. The gym trainers who could have been one degree of separation from me tested negative. So in that regard, I’m in the clear, thankfully.

Now, with that said, I have an option to get tested tomorrow if I want to. There’s a free drive through test about 45 minutes away, maybe a little less. They’re asking only people with symptoms to come.

I have a dry cough, my temperature has been a tiny bit elevated at times but never above 99, though I do tend to run about a half degree below average, so that’s more like 99.5. Other than that, no symptoms, but I do have asthma. Part of me wants to go so that I’ll know, part of me thinks I’m more likely to catch it there with the workers going up to cars and back and forth and likely interacting with some people carrying it, than I am to receive a result that changes the likelihood of a good outcome in any way.

Like if I’m negative for COVID-19, it was a negative freeroll. If I’m positive, I’ll be watching my symptoms more closely, but I’m already watching them pretty damn closely anyway.

I’m not too concerned about taking away resources from others, because the drive through test place is in Delaware, and they only have three cases there. I do wonder if they’re doing it to get a sample size to make better decisions with, and if people coming from out of state are going to cloud that for them. I don’t want to take action that could in any way hurt the response for others if it’s going to be 0EV or worse for me, but if it’s substantially better for me and not substantially worse for others, obviously I’d do it.

So I’m curious about opinions, although I’m about 90/10 against going, unless I wake up tomorrow with worse symptoms or a fever.

[Sean]

We aren’t restricting travel from any developing countries because they don’t have the coronavirus. Only 1st world countries like Italy and South Korea have it.

[iron81]

Should Cuse get tested tomorrow?

• Yes
• No

[suzzer99]

@iron81

Trump has zero ability to put pressure on elected coroners unless they are Trumpists.

Oh good - so only all the coroners in red states then.

Texas tests like 20 people a day or something. Trump has already put enormous pressure on sympathetic governors to not test.

[6ix]

@Vict0ar

this will end Trumps presidency. Biden and the Dems are celebrating.

@geewhysee

If this thing had only been a month or so earlier it might have helped make the case for why a “return to normal” ain’t gonna cut it and why universal healthcare is such a good idea.

@Crunchyblack

Really makes the ratfucking that much more painful

meet me in the other thread

[clovis8]

@suzzer99

Dumb question but lets say you actively have the flu - can you still contract coronavirus at the same time?

You can have flu covid and pneumonia at same time.

[beetlejuice]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1238190524663660544?s=20

[ChrisV]

The Australian PM has issued “advice” for people to not gather in groups of 500 or more but it’s not a ban or anything. I’m supposed to be going to a concert in a 2,000 capacity venue on Thursday. I wonder if it will get cancelled. I’m planning to go anyway. There are as yet no cases of community transmission in Adelaide.

[clovis8]

Sophie Trudeau, wife of Canadian Prime Minister, tests positive for...