6 weeks behind Italy then
General consensus seems to be no country can escape and those with low numbers are ‘x weeks behind Italy’ no matter of the prevention measures (see China lockdown)… just doing a good job at delaying
So, contrary to prevailing opinion a Belgian and Dutch study has just found that the spread of the virus may mostly be caused by those still at the asymptomatic stage:
Fuck.
My favorite player when I was a kid. Actually, he still is but Strachen runs him close.
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For the most part, it’s the best that can be done.
By slowing this up, it gives more time for countries to prepare and places less of a burden on the medical system of countries.
That said, the Italy comparison is ridiculous. Italy was absolutely blindsided and it was probably community spread for days (maybe weeks) before it was documented. Most countries in Europe took actions well in advance to stop themselves from becoming another Italy. Not saying it won’t get worse but it won’t get Italy bad.
I got this the other day from the local blood bank:
The Pacific Northwest’s blood supply is at risk of collapse in coming days. The accelerating number of blood drive cancellations due to the closure of schools, businesses, and events over coronavirus concerns has put nearly 60% of the community’s blood supply in jeopardy. With exponentially decreasing opportunities for the public to donate, our community blood supply is in real danger.
Compounding the problem is the nationwide blood shortage due to the rapidly evolving COVID-19 situation. Bloodworks has started to receive assistance from blood centers across the U.S. “Other blood centers are fully aware of the serious position we’re in and are offering help where they can,” said Curt Bailey, CEO and president of Bloodworks Northwest. “The shipments they’re sending us help, but won’t solve the problem. If the virus spreads, assistance from other parts of the country will be unlikely. We owe it to our community to each do our part locally to ensure a safe and reliable blood supply.”
For the safety and care of current and future patients, Bloodworks is urging the community to step up to donate and spread word of the current need.
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There’s going to be a ton of conflicting information. Science doesn’t move fast enough to provide replicable information that can be relied on by medical professionals. At this point, studies like these have to be taken with a grain of salt until there’s a wealth of papers trending towards similar results.
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Anybody else watching this Biden presser on COVID-19?
Jesus, one of my friends is a teacher, she says they are not cancelling a speech and debate competition that is scheduled and involves “thousands of kids.” I commented that that seemed irresponsible and she was like, nah, there are thousands of kids in school and they haven’t cancelled that.
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Just saw Senate has cancelled recess
At a basic level, an outbreak can only persist if each sick person gets more than one other person sick, on average. With a fully vulnerable population behaving “normally,” the virus will score x new infections for each infected person. This is called r_zero in epidemiology. However, once people start recovering (assuming they are immune after that…), the virus gets fewer and fewer new cases–r_zero people still get dosed with the virus, but some of them are immune and don’t get sick. Once a big enough proportion of the population is immune, r_zero * % immune falls below 1, and the disease dies out or fades into the background. A strict quarantine would push r_zero way down, which is how it slows the growth of the disease, and also reduces the percentage of people who get sick before immunity stops the outbreak. Presumably some level of social distancing will need to remain in place until a vaccine exists, though.
So, long answer is, extreme containment measures last until enough people get sick that regular containment measures don’t let the virus blow up again. Of course, no one knows any of these numbers, and Trump is the ultimate decision maker, so we’re actually hopelessly fucked.
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Which makes the inability to test people that much worse for having any impact on the spread.
I’m from Kent and as a kid you have no idea of distance and with a club like Gillingham the only remotely near pro club it must have been this FA Cup Final that made me a Leeds fan. I was 7. I don’t remember this match but I distintcly remember being absolutely devastated when Sunderland beat us the next year. Little did I know that absolute devastation would be the norm with only a few brief periods of ecstasy.
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P
Charlie George for me, reckoned by Cruyff to be the best player in England.
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Not that the response from the Federal Government isn’t important, but that’s not really true - hopefully not anyway - not even in the case of a good POTUS and especially not in the case of Trump (as you’ve pointed out yourself). Like a LOT of stuff is being done right now in the US and it’s not coming from the Feds and most of it isn’t coming from government at all.
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Oh god, cliffs, please
It’s like Hipster Nascar.
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France at 2,000+, Germany, Spain ballooning. CR different or just 2 weeks behind UK?
UK not closing schools yet as need to close schools for 12-13 weeks for it to be effective. Also need some immunity in the population. I see CR shut schools - hope that’s the right move
The Fed said it would offer at least $1.5 trillion worth of short-term loans to banks today and tomorrow.
Shut way more than just schools.
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