lol MAGA is a very virulent variable to take into consideration, when assessing longer-term prognoses.
Also heard that that region of Italy is more densely populated than much of the US, even the big cities in the US. So if we do start practicing social distancing we may be able to slow the spread more effectively. I don’t know if that’s true, though.
ponied
No it’s definitely true slow pony
EDIT: slow pony on the self-pony
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there’s also some zinc treatment that is showing promise in early tests.
we’re cured, fam
Lance Armstrong and US Postal team van save the world.
I think it’s maybe more useful to look at a derivative of the curve. China’s has a weird spike in it because they changed how they were counting things --ignore that:
South Korea looks like:
And Italy:
Looks like about 10-20 days before these countries all hit an inflection point? That may just be due to quarantine procedure or the virus is just petering out or who knows.
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Wot no lathe?
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Unfortunaty, the current case count is based on cases contracted at least 3-14 days ago based on the incubation period. So you wouldn’t see the impacts of the lockdown yet. You’re either seeing the impacts of burnout or, most likely, the virus overwhelming their ability to test and treat patients.
Isn’t it fairly likely that that is about when people get scared enough to stay away from each other, economic consequences be damned?
Lol. I had written “stoopid peepul” but decided that MAGA best described them.
explain China and South Korea next.
Never mind, I see the moron-in-chief is speaking from the Oval Office at 7. Wonder if he has ever been in there before? 
soooo invested in fear
https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/L2J3I7RCYMI6TLKTQJCIMKADCE.jpg
Nice. We’d have to try and line up the lockdown measures.
I think there is a lot of underlying biases that at first testing is limiting the rise, then the rise speeds up because it becomes the actual growth in cases, then hopefully we start to see the positive impact of social distancing measures.
If it got less infective I think China would have observed that by now. So easy to sequence the genome to detect if a different variant becomes dominant.
So are we isolating sooner or later…and how effectively.
Australia has reached the stage of untracked community spread of the virus. There are a cluster of cases in the Sydney suburb of Ryde of no known origin.
I stocked up on some food yesterday and today and will do an inventory today and maybe buy some more.
Not sure what the government response will be but Australia’s government, while horribly right-wing in many ways, is at least generally rational and effective. I’m still hoping this will apply to the management of the epidemic here.
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Because of the alarmist media LDO. It’s just the damn flu.
Whereas, uh:
Nice MAGA oligarchy you got going on there.
China flattened the top of their curve with the lockdown, which started like 1/22 or 1/23 - revisit the graph and you’ll see ~10 days later the curve starts to shift. South Korea has taken fantastic steps to fight it.
I’m not saying Italy won’t follow the same relative shape, I’m saying it’s too early to attribute it to the lockdown. It’s more likely that we are seeing the impact of their medical system being overwhelmed, and the effect of the lockdown won’t be seen on the curve until at least ~10 days after it began. Maybe a week if they’re lucky.
Shit just got pretty real for me. I just found out my sister (not actual sister but we grew up in the same house and are both only children so we’re effectively brother and sister yadda) not only has a disease I can’t pronounce that makes it like she has asthma and can’t breathe well - but they’re treating it by suppressing her immune system.
She lives in the Denver foothills - has a daughter in college and a son in HS. Her husband is a volunteer firefighter/EMT who also has a counseling practice where he meets with sex addicts face to face for an hour. She also works for the high school. There are constantly mass quantities people coming and going from the house at all times. There are 3 dogs and 3 cats to spread germs around as well.
I just spent 30 minutes impressing on her the seriousness of her situation. She’s still trying to help other people including moving her Mom to Denver. I’m like you need to be on lockdown. Your husband and kids need to change clothes and basically take a shower before they come near you.
If she gets this and survives it will be a miracle. If she somehow doesn’t get it it will be a miracle. We only need one miracle out of 2 I guess.
I’m trying to get her to come live with me and I’ll only go out for food.
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