One like was not enough for this post! Thanks! That’s a huge relief to see some data on that. Do you have a link? Googling for that passage, I think it’s from one of the earlier studies, but it’s still a good indicator. After crunching the numbers, if asthma is as bad as the average comorbidity, my death risk if I catch it is only .358%. Even if it was as bad as COPD, which I can’t imagine, and even if it was actually the top end of the 95% confidence interval, I’d only be looking at a 1.0096% mortality rate.
As a result, I’ll probably ease up a bit and just try to avoid going outside until it’s clear Philly is either past its peak or is going to be able to avoid blowing past the capacity of the hospitals. I still don’t want to risk catching it and being in the middle of the big rush where they potentially run out of O2 or beds.
Again, thanks so so so much. I’ve been reading everything I could get my hands on, and hadn’t seen that.
Pulse ox is generally pretty accurate from 100% down to 85% or so - lower than that all it really tells you that you have shit lungs - in otherwords, whether it’s 80 or 60 it doesnt matter.
MM MD
The numbers I was saying were I guess “pulse ox” - they took some blood from an artery to get a better number I guess.
About 10 minutes in. Guy seems credible so far.
Man, I did a blood gas a year or so - they WERE worried. Accuracy of pulse ox becomes a lot less accurate once it goes below 85 or so.
MM MD
It was a pretty painful thing, the first attempt failed.
No worries. The study was posted Feb 27, titled " Comorbidity and its impact on 1,590 patients with COVID-19 in China: A Nationwide Analysis". Abstract, Full Study. If you have any later studies, please post them. That cardiovascular disease figure in Johnny’s graphic appears to come from a study “The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) in China” which I can’t find the full text of.
The full study linked above contains this useful graphic:
A lot of us are starting to get one degree of separation to someone who tested positive - same for some of my friends irl.
Yeah, no harm in that. I’ve been getting mostly 97-98, every now and then it’ll swing up to 99 if I’m really relaxed or down to 96 if I’m coughing or something. Sometimes with my CPAP (sleep apnea breathing machine), I’ll get like out of rhythm with my breathing and it’ll make it hard to breath through the thing. That happened last night and I took the CPAP mask off and was concerned and measured 93, freaked out for a second but laid down and gave it a minute and was right back to 97-98.
I feel like this would be pretty invasive, but I guess not?
Damn it, I was just feeling better about the new data. Son of a bitch. I know it’s just anecdotal, but that’s still scary as fuck. Although, I suppose it’s not as bad as some of the clinical descriptions I’ve read/heard of what goes on in the lungs. Gotta just focus on the data, really.
I told him to call them first, then go. The Chinese report from a few days ago that has the largest sample of information/data from cases there says if it gets below 93% that they need to be treated as a severe case and get lung imaging and monitoring of the lungs for 24-48 hours.
I maintain that trusting American general practitioners to know this information is not the right move here, and spending 2-4 hours going through a process with a general practitioner is probably not as effective as picking the best hospital in the area, calling their ER and telling them your symptoms and going in (unless they tell you not to).
Yeah you’re damn right I’m going to respond, given that you’ve mischaracterized my advice on numerous occasions.
Cliffs so far: this is going to last a long time. 3-6 months or longer.
Joe is bummed out saunas won’t save him.
Are you seriously calculating this out to four significant figures? My man, it’s going to take ages for anyone to have solid figures on any of this.
Wow, the comorbidity of COPD is worse than the comorbidity of 2 or more comorbidities overall. That’s crazy. I didn’t catch that in text form.
No evidence this is a bio weapon
Probably jumped from an animal to human the 3rd week of November.
I’m liking this podcast so far.
Joe is terrified of chronic wasting disease.
This is the end of my cliffs.
Should just let @hobbes9324 or the other doctor answer this - or maybe someone who has had one (angiogram I think) - but I don’t think it’s that bad. I think I asked my friend who had it, but don’t remember for sure.
So the one I bought always says 99 or 98 for O2, but for some reason the pulse reading always seems high. It just read 105, but I immediately took my pulse the old fashioned was and it’s about 60. (Which is consistent with what the doctor always says.) Are those not accurate for pulse?
I was going to say “just over 1%” but that makes it sound like 1.2% or something. I know it’ll take years to get solid data on everything, but at the same time I’ve gotta go off what we’ve got for now to make decisions.
I’m thinking staying isolated for a week or so and re-evaluating, and basically trying to avoid catching it during the 1-2 week window where I’d be symptomatic when we’re likely to peak in Philly is worthwhile. Even if my risk of death is <1%, I don’t want to roll the dice when hospitals are likely to be stressed or at a breaking point.
Once we get past that point, if nothing has changed with regards to the data on my risk factors, I’ll probably shift to avoiding crowds and hand washing a lot, and avoiding small spaces with more than a few people in them. Go out for work, try to limit trips to the store to once a week, try to avoid overcrowded bars/restaurants, etc.
Mine has been within 1-2 bpm of my Fitbit every time I’ve checked.
I’m completely wasting my time preparing at home. Today my wife took my daughter and friends to some kind of trampoline park, then to Friendly’s. Then my daughter out for a haircut, (which is somehow like a 2 hour thing), and then for fast food on the way home. This was all a few days after I had a discussion about how serious this was, how we need to try to eat only food we prepare, and how we need to start socially distancing and only going out when necessary, etc.
I’m not sure whether to be furious or just fucking give up.