This is awesome by the way. Very awesome.
If people can get the work done from home, why the hell not?
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Speaking of gatherings, aren’t there like 6 primaries (well 5 primaries and 1 caucus) tomorrow?
WTF is the difference between Italy and South Korea in your universe then? Or even like fucking Iran and South Korea for that matter? The problem in Italy isn’t that more people are dying because their hospitals suck, it’s that they can’t keep up with the number of people who require treatment.
You seem to be hung up on “containment” but that’s not the plan here. This thing is out of the box, who knows what will happen in the long term, but it’s not going to get contained. The plan is to slow it down to the point where the health system can cope. I don’t know how you don’t get that catching cases early and social isolation measures have a huge impact on that?
What’s the difference between Italy and Argentina?
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I don’t know what point you’re making here. The #1 difference is that the first cases in those two countries were confirmed on January 31 and March 3, respectively.
The point is no one knows how many people have COVID anywhere really other than being able to make some kind of guess about South Korea. It could be that their number of deaths is only 4th in the world because they had fewer people infected before any restrictions started. Or it could be a 1000 people have died from COVID in the US and no one had a clue that they had it. Point is that Korea is not proof of anything.
There’s a pretty good briefing here on why South Korea is having success containing its outbreak and why fatality numbers are so low. Cliffs: high preparedness, lots of testing, specialized centers, early treatment, a favorable age distribution in the affected population.
but can also boast the lowest death ratio among countries with significant numbers of cases.
What is that based on? No one has a clue how many cases there are in any country except SK and maybe China.
What happens in China or Italy when they lift the lockdown? Does it just start back up again? Doesn’t this thing pretty much have to burn itself out worldwide before everyone can ease up?
Good post.
A lot of countries are testing in significant numbers, and the people they’re testing are people who are symptomatic or have had close contact with confirmed cases. If those people test negative in large numbers, it’s virtually a lock that the virus is not widespread. For example, so far in NSW, a state here with the same population as Washington State, they have so far tested 8,400 people. Thus far, Australia-wide, there are no cases of unknown etiology. This statistically completely rules out the possibility that the virus is circulating out in the community just yet.
Seems like people are talking past each other a little.
Can I recap what I “think” everyone agrees?
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The reported fatality rate is dependent on both the testing rate and the underlying or real fatality rate.
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SK has a high testing rate, which should be contributing to the lower death rate compared to other countries
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Treatment response will vary, and this will have a major impact on real fatality rate.
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SK seems to be doing very well on treatment, which will also help lower the death rate.
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There are other favourable factors for SK, especially the age demographic of those infected.
It seems that we can certainly draw some conclusions from SK, but it requires a little nuance.
Finally, there seems to be debate about whether the widespread testing, quarantine, and contact tracing is having a positive impact on spread. This one confuses me, as I thought this was obvious.
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I think that’s all correct. I was just trying to make the point that Trolly wasn’t demonstrably wrong - not about what is the best public policy.
But, I do think the impact of controls is being overlooked. People will die because of the restrictions in China, probably people all over the world and perhaps even well after this pandemic has subsided. If Italy spends a month without anyone out doing stuff, it will fuck them up.
Some good news, vaccine trials are starting in Seattle:
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Their first trial will take a full year and be followed by two more trials. That doesn’t sound so great. That’ll provide no help for the next cold and flu season.
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From one of the Twitter threads, infected in Lombardy that have comorbidities aren’t getting treatment and are being left for dead. The equipment is triaged to other patients. So yeah, they’re not keeping mortality under 1%.
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Well assuming the lockdowns slow the spread and flatten the curve moreso than reduce the total number of people impacted, there will be fewer current cases and also fewer susceptible people once the lockdowns are lifted, as early evidence does indicate a degree of immunity for a period of time once you get it. Essentially it’s more of a controlled “burn out” for the virus rather than a wildfire.
It also gives the hospitals a chance to get back to some semblance of normal and handle new cases with optimal precautions, protective gear, supplies, and treatment strategies. It allows government agencies to better trace cases to continue to slow down the spread. It allows people to try again on taking precautions like social distancing and hand washing more seriously.
All of that should lead to better health outcomes and slower spread.
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I don’t know. They tested anyone who wanted it. The US was refusing to test people showing symptoms who tested negative for the flu.
How you deal with those most likely to have it probably has a massive impact on how it might spread.
Yeah I think I posted that upthread somewhere. As someone with a comorbidity watching the US fail to prepare well, watching that happen is a profound level of sad and terrifying. It’s not too hard for me to imagine what they’re going through. Like there will very possibly come a point in this where I’ll know that if I catch it then, it’s not an 8% risk of death for me due to asthma, it’s a death sentence.