By this point in the outbreak in South Korea, they had tested 100,000 people and were testing 15,000 people per day. That’s out of a population of 50 million.
The US has tested 4,384 people according to The Atlantic. That’s out of 330 million.
We’ve tested 1 out of every 75,000 people. South Korea had tested 1 out of every 500 people by this point in their outbreak. That gap was even bigger a few days ago, we’ve finally started to do a little bit of testing.
Their range was about 1K to 9.5K but the high end was based on minimal screening at airports and the low end was faced on relatively effective screening. Either way, call it an average of 5,250 on 3/1, double it every 3 days (probably more like two given the lack of effort to slow the spread, quarantine people, get people to work from home), and we’re looking at something like 84,000 cases in the US already.
If that estimate is accurate, we’re a week or two away from being severely stressed for hospital beds and ICU beds in numerous places, and we’re going to see like 800 to 2,500 deaths out of that group.
Obviously it’s worse if they are coughing or sneezing, but new research out of China yesterday unfortunately says that it can be spread by aerosolized particles from regular breathing.
You’re correct about that, but you could give it to someone like me who has asthma and faces serious risks of hospitalization and death if I catch it, or to someone older who’s got even worse risks if they catch it, so please take precautions to reduce the risk of catching it and spreading it!
You’re assuming that South Korea testing .2% of their population had a significant effect on the spread of the virus? It didn’t. It helped them estimate how many people are infected, but didn’t help them stop the spread.
This is correct, but only pertains to determining lethality when hospitals aren’t stressed to the point they’re running out of ICU beds after already creating “ICU beds” in the hallways and operating rooms. When they’re stretched to that point, it’s probably got lethality around 4-6%. To just look at the South Korea numbers and say that’s what we’ll experience is not a good way to predict this, because we’re very likely to be stressed to the extreme in at the very least a few big cities.
Certainly treatment will save a fair percentage of people. Anyone know what percent of people in South Korea who were positive for the virus ended up in intensive care?
How do you know that? The guy who took his daughter to the father/daughter dance in St. Louis didn’t know she had it yet, only that she had been tested. They didn’t get the results back until later.
If we had instant testing he probably doesn’t go out and the Mom doesn’t go out getting her nails done and shopping (they claim they got mixed messages from health professionals - which sure sounds possible at least).
Exactly! I think people being considerate of others is extremely important
I’m flying tomorrow and while I’ll take precautions, I’m really not too worried about it. But I will however, stay the heck away from my grandmother when I get back. I’ll also avoid being in contact with elderly people and babies. Tbh, I didn’t think about people with respiratory problems, but it’s probably a good idea for anyone not altering their lifestyle because of this to use an abundance of caution around others. Great point!
South Korea happened to have a huge cluster of young folks in a cult get it, making their numbers look rosier. We won’t be so lucky here.
They also are testing and quarantining. We are not doing shit other than stocking up on TP and washing hands/sanitizing a little more than usual.
Italy has more doctors and more hospital beds per capita than the US; there is no reason to think we will somehow magically be much better off than they are.
That would cause S.Korea to overstate the percentage of people who are infected. Not as much as in the US or other places where they are only testing people who are very likely to have it, but still overstate it vs really randomly testing the population. That would mean the true lethality could be even lower than it has been calculated in SK.
Because as large of a number 100000 is, it’s still a tiny percentage of the people in SK. Yeah, it has had some effect, but it’s not preventing the spread of the virus in SK. SK may just have fewer cases at this point than - well 3 countries. They still have more COVID deaths than 187 countries.
I disagree - if I didn’t catch it yet, I’m confident I won’t because my ass is parked in my apartment for a while now. But even if you’re right, the timing matters. If we keep the curve flat enough, my risk of dying if I get it is 8%. If we let the curve peak too suddenly, my risk of dying is significantly higher because of hospitals being overwhelmed and me having a comorbidity risk.
Hopefully I either caught it already or don’t catch it at all, because if I caught it already I could beat the rush into the hospital, get an ICU bed in a really good hospital, and only have to fade a gutshot for my life as opposed to trying to fade like a PLO wrap with a NFD and a backdoor flush draw.
I think you mean oversample, not overstate? But yes, that’s true. Again, as encouraging as that could be overall, it’s only encouraging in places where hospitals do not run out of beds, ICU beds, intubation equipment, oxygen, anti-virals, etc…
For sure. And I think there’s certainly value in slowing the spread. Like I said in an earlier post, we wouldn’t want everyone to have COVID at the same time. I just think Trolly’s points aren’t really wrong - certainly are not proven wrong.
Widespread testing does inform treatment to the extent that a significant number of Americans who get COVID-19 will go to a primary care doctor who will ask them whether they’ve been to China or Italy recently, then send them home and say it’s probably the common cold and they don’t qualify for a test. Then when their symptoms begin to worsen, it’s a question of how quickly they get to the hospital. A few hours? A day? Two days?
Contrast that with a patient who gets tested, knows it’s positive, and is carefully monitoring symptoms and rushing to the hospital if it worsens.
There are also degrees of social distancing, some people will do a lot more (me and you) than others who are still going to work, school, sporting events, restaurants, etc.